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bobbydog

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Posts posted by bobbydog

    Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Hi bobbydog!  In a nutshell and shamelessly copied from a post I made in another thread:

    • All long range models giving a highish probability of a mild winter.
    • Low solar activity at solar minimum, which the models apparently don't deal well with, this should lead to a more meridional jet. 
    • Big strat trop disconnect forecast to continue for the foreseeable.
    • SSTs in Indian Ocean favourable for increased westerlies (as per MO Contingency Planners forecast and discussion in teleconnections thread).
    • Possibility of an early SSW.
    • Low arctic sea ice.  

    Other than that, it's wet.

    Hi Mike, in my experience, long range weather forecasts are often 'revised' at short notice... 

    From what I've seen, the teleconnections are a little 'unusual' this year. I don't expect this winter (or the next...) to conform to our usual expectations... 

    • Like 3

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yes at T216 lots of members pushing heights north,  and that's well before the high pressure in Europe really gets established, so a good chance that might not happen at all.  

    No Narnia charts on the radar at the moment, but this could well change into the second part of the month.  Which, while it's quiet in here, prompts me to ask why are snowmageddon charts always referred to as 'Narnia' or 'Nirvana'?  Granted they both begin with 'N' but beyond that there's no similarity at all, Nirvana is a Buddhist state of contentment, and Narnia is a village near Didcot:

    image.thumb.jpg.31a469e16af09fd5ffadfc071b72dd55.jpg

    In neither case do I see the connection to snow!  (Apart from in the picture!  Must have been during the Beast that! )

     

    Seriously?? You've never seen/read 'The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe??

    • Like 4

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

    in Regional

    Posted

    A few flakes on the ground and in the air here in Capel. Disappointing considering the forecast and Meto warnings but expected really. It's only weather and that's the way it goes. There are worse things in life to get annoyed about. My only real disappointment is that we won't have enough snow to build a snowman. Yet another year my little Molly (7 next month) hasn't had the chance to build one.☹️ I'm not giving up totally yet though, still time, as we still have a month left of winter

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Banter’s fine,  but off topic one liners filling up pages isn’t great for those wanting to keep up on what’s happening with latest runs?

    There are two threads though Nick, personally, I really don't find it difficult to scroll past a few posts if they don't interest me.

    • Like 1

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    I’m the opposite, prefer wetterzentrale as the Europe Atlantic view is a spherical  view rather than flat (Mercator) view on meteociel - which makes Greenland and Norway and anything toward north pole much larger than it actually is. 

    Also find there’s too much scaling of heights in blue and purple which I find difficult to decipher the 500mb countours.

    on another subject, seems to be a lot of off topic one liner chit chat in here filling up the pages, find it rather off putting posting in here, like I’ve invited myself as a total stranger into a lads conversation down the pub. 

    Too much 'banter' in the banter thread?....

    • Like 5

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

    Absolutely BB.The snowfall of a lifetime, 20ft drifts, tropical Weymouth was cut off for 3 days. The rain quickly turned to snow (not as forecast) on Saturday night and by lunchtime Sunday it was a winter wonderland.

    As an 8 year old at the time, these are memories that will never fade. All that from this...

    NOAA_1_1978021818_2.thumb.png.cca598a8f9971f1f0c24d9f00a2c9d68.pngNOAA_1_1978021900_2.thumb.png.7186cc4460f1e5c2fb0fd9f9434f4d5f.png

    NOAA_1_1978021906_2.thumb.png.41f032eed554c8b45b70856087fde00a.pngNOAA_1_1978021912_2.thumb.png.6fc1812f39bd07b7e504df54da6a2351.png

    Relevant to those learning to understand that it isn't all about super strong HLB and/or about cold uppers taken in isolation.

    Very true. Take the 06z GFS for example. At first glance, it doesn't appear overly impressive for long lasting cold or snow. However It actually shows snow on every day from this Sunday onwards, with virtually every part of the UK seeing significant amounts at some point.

    • Like 3
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