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bobbydog

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Everything posted by bobbydog

  1. bobbydog
    well.. ive been out having a life (for a change) just had a quick flick through the models and pretty much all of them say we are getting a decent easterly by +120hrs. cant be bothered to post all the charts but they're all here- http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php (thats ECM but all the links are there). we've struggled so far this winter to get synoptics like that but there they are and persistently so. some say its only the south east which will get anything out of this but so what? i live here and will take it. i've lived here 24 years (before which i lived in the north east and saw many decent winters during the '70's and '80's) and have only seen 3 decent winters since living here. 2 of which have been in the last 4 years, the previous being feb 1991. anyway, we cant call any snowfall at this range, lets just get the ingredients in place first.
  2. bobbydog
    lol at GFS-
  3. bobbydog
    heavy snow here! blizzard conditions! 6" in less than a hour! and then i woke up.........
  4. bobbydog
    been snowing here all morning, quite heavy but not heavy enough and not quite cold enough to overcome the wet ground
  5. bobbydog
    temp and DP going back up again!!!!
  6. bobbydog
    temp 2.6c DP 1.7c keep dropping..... keep dropping.....
  7. bobbydog
    stop telling me its snowing. or i'll be round......
  8. bobbydog
    GFS says snow which includes my area, on tuesday. always just out of reach. oh well, i might get some decent snow on my birthday (its in august...)
  9. bobbydog
    pah! just rain here, not even sleet! grrr....
  10. bobbydog
    temp 4.0c DP 3.1c
  11. bobbydog
    temp 4.5c DP 3.8c falling gradually
  12. bobbydog
    pah... i'm still not in it
  13. bobbydog
    here's one fairly near you- http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IENGLAND374
  14. bobbydog
    could be right?? best to check a few local stations as sometimes the odd one can be not working properly
  15. bobbydog
    here you go- http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/observations
  16. bobbydog
    try this site here- http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IENGLAND392 thats a weather station local to me but you can pan around the map and click on your own local stations
  17. bobbydog
    looking at how the low develops (or is predicted to) on the GFS, that precip chart would suggest warm uppers being pulled back over the south east as the low wraps around, which may or may not happen. this could be very frustrating for us to the south of london. this will come down to a temp, dewpoint and lamppost watch!
  18. bobbydog
  19. bobbydog
    it seems to be slowly moving east. its not settling though, dewpoint just above freezing but we never know....
  20. bobbydog
    morning south-easters, its snowing!!!
  21. bobbydog
    most of the models seem to have the low further south on these runs, e.g. the ECM- which is only just beginning to form on this chart (midnight tonight) the BBC forecasts as to where snow will fall will probably be near the mark but still not decided as yet. incidentally, its snowing heavily here! (not settling yet though) edit- ok i posted the wrong ECM chart. its not looking as good but that one could still be as right as any at this stage!
  22. bobbydog
    just to demonstrate how far from settled this event will be even 12 hours before, the LP system is born from this complex system in the atlantic- this is midday saturday. the LP system doesn't even exist yet on this chart. it forms from somewhere amongst that chaos. as much as we poke (friendly) fun at the Meto warnings, they have done very well to even hazard a guess as to where any snow might fall at this far out, with that much complexity to deal with.
  23. bobbydog
    not to mention the extensive training they have to undertake to reach that position.
  24. bobbydog
    i think thats a very important point, that the low doesn't even exist yet. so even at this stage, everything is still speculation.
  25. bobbydog
    hmm. the period up to t+90 is still quite undecided. however, all being well, we could get a cracking few days of snowfall, potentially giving almost everyone a decent amount. the point being though, there is still uncertainty at short range, so anyone claiming confidence in +144 and beyond is kidding themselves. in the meantime we have a potential epic snow event on our doorstep. if that happens, i could'nt really care what happens afterwards
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