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Whether Idle

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  1. Whether Idle
    Sorry, meant Arome: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=40&mode=101&map=0 edit -Check out the hi res GFS 18z
  2. Whether Idle
    Try Arpege.
  3. Whether Idle
    -1.3 here so easily the coldest weather since March 2018.
  4. Whether Idle
    Snow chances are there this week, albeit an outside bet. Chance 1 - back edge snow as the cold front clears around 5-7am on Tuesday - chance of a slushy layer on the Downs 50% risk Chance 2 - Kent streamer possibly to set up Thursday/Friday if the Arpege has it right - though it would be a case of wet snow only with altitude and cold rain for most - 20% chance Both of these worth keeping an eye out for.
  5. Whether Idle
    A slap in the face from the ECM for coldies. Will it be slapped down itself though?
  6. Whether Idle
    I cautiously suggest a post adjustment CET finishing number of 6.6c-ish is likely for December
  7. Whether Idle
    Quite correct Matthew. high nighttime minima will be they key to keeping the CET much closer to 7c than 6c.
  8. Whether Idle
    Todays ECM 12z gives a final CET of around 6.7c. Big differences are apparent from run to run at the moment, all down to the position and cloud content and uppers in the high.
  9. Whether Idle
    Finishing number now above 6c seems reasonably likely as the output is milder. How far above 6c is very debateable.
  10. Whether Idle
    Agreed.
  11. Whether Idle
    ...Or Arome. the 12z goes for 12cms or so over the Downs of North and East kent, at lower levels closer to 3-5cms. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php?mode=45&x=5151.95&y=2597.08&ech=42&zoom=3.5 My expectation here in Dover is for up to 5cms and as little as 2cms so a mean of 3-4cms. the hills to my N and W will fare better - maybe 10cms at best?
  12. Whether Idle
    Agree. Correct.
  13. Whether Idle
    The North Sea is not far off the LTA. Id be more focussed on inland solar convection in your locale.
  14. Whether Idle
    Its the upper cold pool that will make the difference between light and heavy snow showers. If it passes over, you will know about it! More runs needed. Events of Saturday night weather-wise will become a bit clearer by Thursday 12zs, so another 2 days of fruity debate about where it will snow.
  15. Whether Idle
    Pub run is a thing of sublime beauty. Hope it verifies.
  16. Whether Idle
    15 April 1966 - easterly depositing 6 inches of snow in daylight hours on the North Downs in Kent - an ice day too. So 20 March is not too late at all.
  17. Whether Idle
    In days of yore, the first attack fails bringing show in a line all points southward from north Pembrokeshire to Portsmouth with a possible extension east as far as Hastings on the coastal strip.
  18. Whether Idle
    A very pleasing run from the ECM. It has to be hoped the deep cold can win this battle at 144-168.
  19. Whether Idle
    GFS control is a snow making monster, serious gridlock if that verified.
  20. Whether Idle
    Agreed Stodge, the UKMO run is a decent run, particularly for those in the SE. Anyhow, being out in FI, the corresponding 144 chart will have altered a lot in 24 hours time.
  21. Whether Idle
    I think this situation is potentially a good one, Ive far more faith in this set up than the one from Monday morning. Again, not convinced about my coastal location (too warm later on) , but for the bulk of EAnglia and into London, Kent might get a dusting, even the odd cm. Some models show the area just E of Maidstone (say Lenham) as a local sweet spot. Good luck all!
  22. Whether Idle
    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/118f9c5ed1e62f483b855b82b158f827/snow-depth-in/20180205-1200z.html Good for Alexis and I. In theory
  23. Whether Idle
    Thanks for clarifying. I see shallow showers of rain, sleet and graupel, with the odd snow flurry Monday as the colder air digs in and removes the moisture.
  24. Whether Idle
    Knocker, most models are playing this down. What makes you suggest that the showers will be anything more than shallow affairs?
  25. Whether Idle
    2.2 sleet
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