Whether Idle

2.4 sleety rain. Temp has fallen 2.5c since 3.30

Hi. The key thing in these scenarios is to expect nothing. That's usually what transpires. My rule of thumb for the veracity of snow-casts over the years has been 4 days out - no clue, misleading. Ignore. 3 days - ditto. 2 days dangerous but tempting to believe. 1 day - 50/50 correct. 12 hours - better. 3 hours - worth taking serious notice of, and in combination with radar and satellite, can be very exciting if things have a chance of going your way. 0 hours - reliable, look out the window. In other words, only take seriously within 24 hours, up to that point best to take with a giant pinch of salt, and disregard any expectations.

0.7 up on the hills out there so probably snow at altitude (150m+) with evap cooling temperature will fall very close to freezing. Sleety rain below 50m and sleety snow at 100-150 m I would think.

New blob incoming and making landfall on east Kent coast

Up to 3cms here at Whitfield-Swingfield-Hawkinge. Still snowing +0.4 here sea level -0.5 at Langdon bay 120 m

+1.6c dp -2.3 Snow shower bit heavier (still only lightish) shed roof white again.

Whether it can make it intact I doubt, we shall see. What it can do at least is add to the instability. The upper cold pool and little developing low are all conducive to convective snowfall in east Kent at least. Fingers crossed for a good evening and overnight period of snow showers!

Come to Daddy

Shed roof dusting from light snow

Do you think that mass will get caught up in the NNEly flow? Can it get far enough west to hook in over Kent, or will it flow down the channel?

Latest forecast aroundabouts in the hills: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/u10fun2jx#?fcTime=1486771200

Awesome photos Lottie. I don't think you will quite make those conditions, but if anyone in the SE is in with a shout of seeing some of the white stuff, you are!

Lottie, you are in pole position. Best case scenario is 10cms. Median scenario 4 cms...worst case zilch. If you pitch your expectations between worst case and median (at say 2cms) then you are less likely to be disappointed. Be aware that milder upper air moves in from the east at around 3pm so any laying snow will start to melt, though if dew points can remain around 0 then maybe not too much, so get out there early Saturday if you want to max out! Needs to be added that all of the above reflects the model output as of 12z Thursday. It will be a case radar/lamppost watching Friday night - and by then checking the Met O forecast. Still time for it to go "mammatus verticus"

My predictions for the forthcoming snow: depths by midday Saturday Sweetspot - east Kent Downs north of Folkestone/Dover - up to 10 cms in areas 150m + 0-50 metres SE generally 0-3 cms. 50-150 m east Kent 2- 7 cms SWW to follow from Met O around midday tomorrow. Whether Idle.

Plenty of snow left from 12 days ago locally if you know where to look. This one from the hills NW of Dover.

2cms here. 4 cms at Dover castle. Still snowing

GFS going to be good in FI as southern arm of the jet digs south and energy goes under UK high@ 252

ECM the best at 144 this morning as we head into FI. Likely the high will sink and the jet ride over the top. This evenings runs will prove of interest at the 144 juncture.

It will be cold under high pressure. Cold at the surface is cold. Frost is part of winter, or at least it used to be.

The Atlantic powers through at 240 on the ECM

Good. 70mph was quite enough here.

Really kicking off here. Violent gusts and damage, leaves in frenzied dances and salt laden spray coating the windows. Horrid!

Getting worse here, gusting around 60-70pmh at Langdon Bay. Winds going S and then SW. Peak gusts expected IMBY between 7-9 am. Very noisy, howling, whistling and violent. Hoping as wind swings SW I will get some shelter. Horrible!

If nothing else the colder weather is cooling our seas - which can only help the situation come early winter. Meanwhile the 18z GFS op rolls out, only minor differences so far.

The only chance of wintriness as I see it is at 400feet + from around 0830-1100 in the north downs of east Kent. Somewhere like Whitfield, Hawkinge, Paddlesworth. 50/50 to see some flakes there at best