Whether Idle

Right - time for a break, looking at the radar Im now 60% confident (up from 50%)that tonight will bring a packet of snow showers to my neck of the woods. Still that annoying 40% of bugger all, but... 9pm onwards right through to midday tomorrow - thats 15 hours of potential for 15 cms of snow - heres hoping

Neil, There is another possibility...that the channel streamer gets pushed west onto Kent - and ignites- so to speak- with possible thundersnow...and there is another possibility - that the whole lot slides south to clobber France. The next hour or so are crucial. Watch like a hawk!

You may be right, I cant call it. The unzoomed view, big picture looks more encouraging. We shall know by about 9pm anyhow!

Blob Watch - very positive developments for eastern Kent folk - a blob is developing nicely off Lowestoft and heading south south west. Thers a squeeze as a renewed push from NW Holland meets a push from Lincolnshire- this should serve to shift the showers currently in mid channel further west (I hope).

Hi - theres a pool of frigid upper air (-11c uppers)heading off Dunkirk, France now and it may devlop as it heads over the +10c Channel waters. The main focus for us here is from 3pm today right through til 3pm Saturday - thats when we get back a NNE wind

Theres snow in this part of Dover - a dusting

So - Challock gliding club it is then!

Hi - I think we will have to agree to disagree - but I will contend that the emphasis was further west in the areas Ive described. - Anyhow - its an academic argument and we will have a much better idea in 24 hours time. My personal hope is that the snow is widespread and heavy for as many folk as possible - the kids could do with an early Christmas holiday!

Not so - Ive just watched Rob McElwee on BBC News channel and he had the snow falling from s.essex/northwest kent down into surrey, east and west sussex. He mentioned these places by name and talked about the snow, quote, "setting up in the estuary" So, clearly, its still not settled because either the BBC are blinded by the events of feb 09 OR the low will go further west and draw in more of an ENEly(or not!)

Hi Steve and others- many thanks for your efforts which are most appreciated. The BBC forecasts are at odds with your prognosis insofar as they favour a thames valley effect(similar to Feb09) Whether its East kent or the estuarythat takes a hit depends on where the streamer sets up. I dont think we will know for another 24 hours! 8-9 Feb 1983 such a set up produced 60 cms of snow in Capel le Ferne - between Dover and Folkestone(175m asl,) with around 36 hours of continous snowfall, so anything is possible. I expect thundersnow in the early hours of Friday. Final thought - its going to be maddeningly frustrating for many as one gets the feeling wherever the streamers and troughs set up there will be a pasting and very little in other spots. I really cant say with confidence whats going to happen - but thanks again for your efforts!

A similar set upin Feb 1983 (9th Feb) dumped 60 cms on the hills aroundabout, thats the record for level snow since Ive been following these things. Difficult to know what will happen this time , but anything between 0 and 25cms is my answer, it might fall as rain until friday 6am.

Met O is now on board -the latest t72 (Friday a.m.) precip shows a blob over Kent and some elsewhere. Up to 10cms looks possible on top of E Kent Downs. BUT 72 hours is way too far ahead. MUch more widely 2-5 cms or a dusting. Check the charts again Thursday am to get the clearer picture. EDIT - also 850s are not that low (-7) so very likely tops of hills better off. Dont worry about it yet as forecast will change, keep an eye out, meteociel a useful site.

Good evening I have scanned the charts for Friday and the UKMO is alone in not suggesting much precipitation. ECM, GFS, GEM, GME, NOGAPS all suggest trough/ mini low related rain/sleet/snow from Friday 0000 through to midday Saturday in some parts, most models have a window of 24 hours, some 36 for trough related/ convectional snowfall. There are 3 factors to bear in mind: 1. Altitude is king in terms of getting snow rather than sleet and then retaining a layer. Even 100m makes a huge difference in these marginal set ups. 2. On the coast rain/sleet is a real risk unless uppers (850s) reach -9c, but distance of as little as 3/4 miles from the coast is enough to turn it back to snow. 3. Snow amounts - impossible to say at this stage, but some places locally will get a lot more than others. Health warning - other than suggesting the North Downs and High Weald and Chilterns are the obvious places to benefit most, I would caution that now, at a distance of 96 hours indications are favourable, but speaking from experience, once youre within 24 hours of t0, thats the time to start paying attention to forecasts of snow, much better within 6 hours, so start to listen out from Thursday morning, if things are still looking good in 60 hours time... Exciting times ahead. I will provide a forecast on Weds pm if the window of opportunity is still in the charts within 48 hours. Whether Idle

The 72 hour fax from Bracknell follows the 12z Met O for same date, which is encouraging as it leads to best potential later for convective snowfall.

ECM is flip flopping and is hardly covering itself in glory. GME GEM and UKMO are all broadly similar to 120. more runs needed.

I think the GFS has got it all wrong as early as t72 wrt low pressure in the Baltic - run wont verify at t0 IMHO, and I will reconsider the landscape after ALL the 12zs are in

Yes, tops of the hills in Kent could get wet snow tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Monday is still 120 hours away, so much will change for that date in the models over the next 24 hours.

Great summer here. June July August, all sunny, especially August, in which the duration of sunshine must be approaching 280-300 hours. A truly dry summer - total is 113mm for all 3 months - including about 40mm from French Import thunderstorms. July had a few cool showery days but we got away with it really. So - dry, warm and sunny overall, with August the best of the bunch. The most enjoyable summer weatherwise for a long long time.

My criteria about summer months is sunshine and lack of rainfall, temperature is less crucial to me. Here in Dover Summer 2009 is proving to be very good. This month to be the 2nd warmest on record here (Oct 05 start of records) mean will be around 18.3. More crucially, currently only 6mm of rain!, and it may well be one of the sunniest months ever, though August 1989 would take some beating! The Met office contoured maps show the story of July very well. In summary - a very good summer, with August excellent.

Snowing heavily, temp 0c at 120m asl, 4cms of snow, sticking to all surfaces, very picturesque. At sea level a slushy cm on grass. What a great walk in the snow that was !!

Its been raining all day here, an educated guesstimate says at least 25 mm so far, still chucking it down!! As for snow, the best chance is clearly going to be after 12 midnight and thence through to midday as the cold air undercuts rapidly southwards. Im expecting nothing here, although we did get 3cms Satuday morning from back edge snow, so you never know but I do think the circumstances were more favourable then. Good luck to all those who lust for snow!

Very happy with the fresh 3cms of snow here, off for a bumpy sled ride with my kids!

Hello guys. Im at sea level town centre 0.5 miles from coast and there is an icy dusting of snow. Up at Dover castle a quick recce showed around 2-3 cms of beautiful fresh snow. Fell beteen 2 and 6 am.

A great day today- many hours of snow, sledging fun with my boys and wife and recorded on the famliy camcorder to boot, plus, my boys' first snowman made, the stuff memories are made of - oh, and being sent home from work!! Right down here in the valley I think all the snow's gone, i believe theres a couple of inches left up on the hills where I was earlier. What a day:-)