Whether Idle

If you're after some snow then best chance is somewhere like Hawkinge or Capel where with some evaporative cooling and a bit of luck with heavy precip from a channel runner you never know..

Snow chances tomorrow (yes slim, yes, probably nothing, but chances nonetheless) - a broad swathe of Chilterns, North Downs of Surrey and Kent tomorrow morning before 7am maybe a couple of centimetres, maybe a bit more... Second possibility is very localised- a channel runner could clip into coastal Kent and east Sussex so Tamara-ville (Fairlight) then Hawkinge nr Folkestoneand Whitfield nr Dover hills above 120m and close to the coast, poss up to 5cms if the streamer comes that little bit more onshore. As I say, all just small chances but chances nonetheless.

If you look with a magnifying glass you will see the ridges and downs may get a slushy covering early tomorrow according to the optimistic euro 4. For most (95%)of us the forecast is zilch.

Hi. Its all very hit and miss (more often miss) BUT the chance is there. 4-6 am looks like the highest risk time, as the colder air with instability takes a long while to work its way south east to this corner. The hi res models (only of which euro4 is indicating much in the way of precipitation) tend to over-exaggerate so I wouldn't lose any sleep worrying about your commute.

Its simply impossible to say, as is almost always the way with these showers. Hope for the best come morning time - you might see a few flakes, maybe more, decades of watching these scenarios tells me that the most likely scenario is zilch, so expect nothing and you wont be disappointed.

If the showers turn out as forecast then almost anywhere away from West and south west facing coasts could get some snow by 9am tomorrow. Probable inhabited sweetspot - somewhere like Crowborough, East Sussex at 700ft asl. Tunbridge Wells, Sevenoaks will do well IF the precipitation arrives. Altitude will be a huge help - every metre helps AND distance from windward coasts. Places like Detling in Kent could do well, High Wealden ridges in Sussex, Leith Hill, Box Hill. The main activity is not likely until 3am - 8am as a forecasted clump of showers tracks west to east. Fingers crossed for all snow lovers out there. WI

ECM shows a surge of mild air penetrating deep into northern Europe in 3 days time:

Can see the snow and sleet blowing about illuminated in Dover castle lights, just lightish stuff and sleety rain down here.

Sleety rain here at sea level. Was better this afternoon!

100% snow risk for Dover says the GFS hi res 12z..for later this evening. We shall see whether all 2mm of rainfall equivalent can deliver a dusting to the hills. Need some showers to come onshore first

We have already had snow with -4 uppers earlier this afternoon, so with -7 the chances are higher, so I'm not thinking wishfully, just logically. The main issue is whether any showers will actually make landfall!

Go for it, a radar watch is key to avoid wasted effort on the lamppost though. You are in pole position if you have any sort of altitude there DS.

There was a slushy covering at Whitfield and Dover Castle area for an hour between 2-3pm. I've got a couple of photos. Best case scenario is from 7-midnight. There is potential for hills to the N and E of Dover to attain as much (lol but beggars cant be choosers) as 2cms as the wind veers E of N from around 7pm and the uppers fall from their current -5 to as low as -8 but after midnight chances diminish as the coldest air is also the driest! So as I say eastern most Kent, with altitude, from 7pm. And a bit of luck.

Sleet shower with snow in heavier bursts here in Dover. If we get showers this evening then they should be of snow.

Later in the day chances improve. Met O forecasting wintry showers. Uppers fall to -7 in east Kent so snow likely between 5pm and 10pm or whenever the showers die.

Agree with this analysis - along the lines that I posted this morning. The 12zs will be revealing, one way or the other.

I noticed yesterday that the trend had been to build HP further N than had previously been forecasted. This may continue, and if you take the ECM 144 (which is in FI, the boundary of which stands this morning at t96), then a northward adjustment of a mere 200 miles would usher in a Polar continental for the South. Fine margins. The unusual bout of RaCy is causing huge uncertainty in model land and I think the GEFS are making an error in the modelling of the storm, therefore I am dismissing the entire suite this morning. The GFS P is less wrong. All IMHO of course! Have a good day!

ECM and UKMO both bring in a brief easterly. UKMO 120 is snowy for some in S England. One to watch.

I am also very pleased. There are chances of upgrades. The next day's worth of model runs will be of great interest.

The status quo...what you're proposing is that the battle between the air masses goes on and that means we are always in with a chance of a wriggling front dumping a lot of rain or nothing upon us. A headache indeed and no fast track to cold.

As a firm believer in the idea that patterns/ synoptic solutions tend to lock in for the winter, I would suggest that the ECM is best ignored as the result this year has been jam tomorrow from ECM but the jam never arrives. The blocks have proven to be unable to withstand the jet and the Atlantic fury driven by the American cold. Unless you are of a masochistic nature I would advise ignoring the ECM and focussing on other model aspects like how much rain is due to fall in the next week.

Yes. The UKMO deserved support and JMA provides that with a snow fest slider away from the SW later!

ECM is the most reliable model as we know so a time for keeping expectations under control and hoping the UKMO "has it."

Its all FI now but the weather Thursday Friday is trending colder IMHO.

About 100kms further west at 108 by my reckoning.