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Whether Idle

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Everything posted by Whether Idle

  1. Whether Idle
    Youre on the eastern edge there, so a dusting yes, any more a bonus. Would not expect more than a dusting Will.
  2. Whether Idle
    Looking good rom around 6pm through to 6am for places like Dartford, Medway towns, Maidstone TWells Tonbridge, even futher SW along that line to Heathfield and Lewes- BBC rainfall map has a streamer setting up and going all night. Looks like a narrow band aligned NE -SW in the areas mentioned. Light stuff either side. IF this streamer sets up then some lucky places will get plastered. I will guess at Maidstone -Tunbridge Wells being the sweet spot with 10 cms. Just a punt, good luck to all - but the streamer, IF it sets up, COULD all be further west and aligned more ENE -WSW which would bring the Surrey folk into the firing line, Leatherhead could do well. Going to be an interesting night for folkin tose parts methinks. Good luck to all!!
  3. Whether Idle
    Dry. Temperature has fallen back from +0.5 to +0.3, dp from -1.2 to -1.4 in the past 2 hours...
  4. Whether Idle
    Not last (edit sorry - Sunday), coastal east Kent topped out with 11 cms. At the start of the cold spell (nearly 2 weeks ago) Dover Deal and Ramsgate had snow while the rest got nothing from showers. The only event where the west did better was the Friday (week ago) event.
  5. Whether Idle
    Good shot at snow in easternmost Kent from Capel Shepherdswell Sturry eastwards as the SSE wind MAY retain cold surface and dps. Current -1.0, dp -3.4. These are both bound to rise from here in in. My location is sea level 0.6 miles from coast
  6. Whether Idle
    Im sure the strat. warming will propagate down in time to save us before winter's end. Did the job last year for many!
  7. Whether Idle
    The 12 z JMA is a nightmare of gales and massive rainfall totals for the west pf the UK. Bye bye block, hello flooding
  8. Whether Idle
    During the December 2010 cold spell., only rarely were -10 850s parked over us. The southern extremities were often under 850s of -4 or so, and it was a very cold month with plentiful snow even there,as we recall all too easliy. The ECM synoptics tonight are frankly stunning (esp the 1947esque 240 chart) and I think the charts will prove to be colder than is expected. Good times to be a model watcher - 10 days away and we're still in autumn!
  9. Whether Idle
    Snow is forecast Sunday morning for SE coasters in Kent (see NAE), and freezing rain (see GFS hi res) for Sunday morning for London and Essex, very interesting and extreme stuff forecast within 48 hours.
  10. Whether Idle
    The showers that might affect Kent (and if they do they will be well scattered) will not show their hand til 3am ish and the window of opportunity closes by around midday Friday (before the much vaunted trough from the east may or may not clip Kent Fri night.). I would not worry about it Victor, and if you dont get any snow thats only to be expected, as thats the nature of scattered showers, so it will be no good moaning "I dont believe it!" Edit - its down to the wind direction - the showers (if they show, big IF) will curve around East Anglia on and head into Kent on a NE or ENE wind. Pretty tenuous but possible.
  11. Whether Idle
    Three bites at the cherry, thats how I see it. Bite One: The showers tomorrow will be hit and miss. I reckon 3cms are possible towards the east Kent Massif (Challock-Paddlesworth) because the showers will be slow moving. But, most places will get nothing and a few spots may get a dusting. Bite 2 is the "Dutch trough" - hmm, very difficult to call but perhaps our best shot at 2cms or so. Third bite is the stalling front from the west - its such an atypical set up that my feeling is it will stall and sink south before getting here. So it could be 0, 1, 2 or 3 out of 3 by Sunday midday!! Chances of something decent at 25%. Chances of a dusting 75%. Chances of nothing 25%. WI
  12. Whether Idle
    Sleeting increasingly heavily and getting windy. I think there must be something upwind.
  13. Whether Idle
    Whether Idle forecast - up to 2cms snow accumulating over low ground by 0900 to N and W of London. Up to 5cms over 150m. Slushy deposits possible to E of London from 1000-1300 particularly N Downs. this requires moderate snowfall for evaporative cooling, once any snow stops melting will exceed deposition and it will disappear quickly.
  14. Whether Idle
    The far SE looks in line to get some snow over the Fri-Sun period with a small possibility of something significant. Will need watching closely.
  15. Whether Idle
    Well, it has to be said that IMBY there is a high (>65%) possibility of snow falling in this part of Kent over the period Friday-Saturday. Minus 11 uppers, a 25 Knot NE wind and surface temperatures around 3c max and sub zero dewpoints. All models show this possibility with UKMO and NOGAPS seemingly being keenest on it. A slight shift in the position of the high futher nortwest towards Iceland and the passage of the low southwards on Friday and it could turn into the fourth big dumping this winter. Will need watching. . The potential is there.
  16. Whether Idle
    Frequent heavy snow showers. Now up to 4cms IMBY. Could be a long white night
  17. Whether Idle
    By Thursday morning (8am) theres a good chance of 2-5 cms widely over lowland east Kent and up to 10cms over places on North Downs (Hawkinge, Whitfield etc). Thursday morning and into the afternoon the highest risk of heavy accumulations will be from a streamer. So far this winter Dover and all points east (there arent many) have benefitted (17 Dec - 13cms Kingsdown. 6 January 16cms Langdon Cliffs). So there is potential for a further 15cms of snow in places where any streamer sets up - same locations are favoured but each scenario is different. Interesting times, because it could yet all head over the channel to France - GFS op hints at this. As someone said, dont base your expectations on anything outside of 6 hours, and best to watch the radar in about 24 hours time.
  18. Whether Idle
    Hi Neil, I will investigate and report back later, I have an idea that St Margarets Bay (top of cliffs) will have something approaching 15cms - Well done to them, though Im pretty chuffed too Edit - last few flakes have stopped.
  19. Whether Idle
    Which part of town are you in?
  20. Whether Idle
    Pleased for you Nate - weve got 5cms at sea level here, a bit more up at the castle, but no more than you! Well done Edit - "puking" down now, OMG!!
  21. Whether Idle
    Coming down heavy again - oh yeah, and in this part of town - near the sea - it hasnt stopped for 3 hours
  22. Whether Idle
    Its been a long 48 hours but this is worth it
  23. Whether Idle
    Complete whiteout, heavy heavy snow, now in streamer. Layer growing rapidly
  24. Whether Idle
    Ive woken up and dont think I will get back off to sleep now. This is no exagerration - Theres more snow in my back garden than my front garden because, by the look of the radar, my house has literally been on the edge of the streamer for the last 3 hours, with wafts of snow brushing over the edge every now and again. I imagine that areas to my east (there arent many, but St Margaret at Cliffe, for example )may well have in excess of 10 cms. Here theres 2 cm maybe.Still some chance for more, but Im not that hopeful. The sky to my east has an ominous orange glow, indicating that it is chucking it down. To my west, towards Folkestone, the sky is black. There seems to be another waft of snow over the edge here - here we go into the orange glow...
  25. Whether Idle
    I have to disagree there. The wind is now tending NE and air currently streaming off the interior of Scandinavia is hurtling over the warm north sea - check out the sattelite animations. The 18z GFS shows a streamer moving on-shore to east Kent in around 5/6 am tomorrow and staying there til 2pm ish tomorrow IF this does transpire 20cms will be readily attainable on hills around here. But, at the moment, the most recent shower has cleared and the layer awaits a top up.....Im off to bed and hope to wake to a deeper layer than the cm or so at present.
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