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Appears to me that this system is moving through much quicker than seemed the case this time yesterday. All over by 9 am, which is when the strongest winds were at one point looking probable. This is such a close call, a slight slowing, a movement 50 miles in any one direction, interaction and strength of the jet, and don't forget we had 2 X Class flares and a number of M class flares from the sun over the past 48 hours. All in all an absolute nightmare for any computer to deal with no matter how powerful, I expect the Met Office along with everyone else are being educated with this particular set up and who knows there is still time (just) for this thing to start winding itself up as it approaches, but it does look like this is going to be a near miss for most and just a glancing blow for the South Coastal regions. I expect 70 MPH Maximum Gusts as things stand rather than 80 - 90 , which is still powerful, but not exactly damaging to property, especially given that we're talking an event lasting a mere 3 hours as opposed to an event lasting 6 hours as seemed likely yesterday. Think I'll get back to looking what Winter has in store now

Nice Link and thank you for the info, that's a really cool tool !! Clear to see from following your instructions that this system is already some 50 miles further south and East than what the ECM had it at for 6am. Suggesting that it's moving a little quicker and a little further South STILL, so on that evidence I am expecting further ''down grades'' as the day progresses. This COULD miss the UK entirely in terms of a wind event is concerned anyway. As always time will tell, but I have that page bookmarked for later and thanks again for the link and the instructions.

And just to re affirm the NW Maximum Gust charts above, here's the latest from the Met Office. This is beginning to get very serious now !!

This is worrying indeed for anyone along the South Coast. I can't recall seeing a chart like this for a very long time !!

Well I take back my earlier comments, this really does look like it's going to be one hell of a storm and yes the wind speeds if this is anything to go by are going to be something to be concerned about !! YIKES !!

I wish everyone would stop over reacting to this, the way some of you are posting you'd think we're going to get hit by 150 MPH winds. 80 MPH gusts for a few hours was common place in the 90's and 2000's for many with a least one event every other year on average. Where has all this talk of 100 MPH Gusts come from ?? It's just going to be very windy ...that's all...NOT a Hurricane...and NOT a super storm !! a 965 mb Low is nothing out of the ordinary, I doubt there has been a single year gone by where we haven't had at least one 965 mb low crossing the UK. And I doubt this low will get any deeper than 965 !!

I didn't know there were any tree's up North ? I was under the impression they had all been chopped down to make huts ?

That would just be plain Scilly ;-)

Seems to me that the majority of the models are putting this back in terms of ''impact'' with the maximum wind speeds coming closer to 10:00 am as opposed to overnight ?? and what is the JMA doing ?? putting everything right back until Monday early afternoon ??

I really think this whole thing is being blown out of all proportion (pardon the pun). I recall several occasions in the past where the wind has gusted to 80 MPH along the South Coast here without there being any real structural damage a few tiles here and there blown off the odd roof and an occasional fallen tree. I remember going down to the beach when we had wind right on the sea front of close to 90 MPH gusts and I had no problems standing up, although the spray coming off the sea hurt my face as it drove into my cheeks. I have no idea why this has become so frenzied, by the time we get to Monday afternoon we're all going to be wondering what the fuss was all about. 100 MPH gusts and upward are when you need to start worrying or sustained wind speed of upward of 50 MPH for 2-3 hours or more, anything less than that is not going to cause the sort of armageddon type situation everyone seems to think it's going to. The Met Office are doing an amazing job with this storm, they are neither over hyping or under playing it, hat's off to them for knowing exactly how to deal with the public. their use of the English language is exemplilairirlyiirlyl ;-)

I have lost count the number of times last Autumn those ''Maximum Gust'' figures on the Met Office chart went into the 70's for us along the South Coast, even the day before an ''event'', I can't recall a single day last autumn where we came anywhere near getting those kind of wind speeds. So I take those charts with a big pinch of salt these days, that being said it does seem about right given the chart output. 72 MPH gusts are nothing to get too excited about either tbh. I think every year without fail somewhere in the UK coastal region will see wind speeds topping that. As I said in a post above, I don't see this as anything spectacular the GFS over cooked this low several days ago, getting everyone excited and now with maximum gusts of just 72 MPH predicted, it's just another windy day in my opinion.

Considering the GFS has a habit of overcooking Lows , you do have to wonder if it's onto something and that this is going to end up a Non event. As many have said previously to this, it's got everything to do with timing, if this system develops rapidly out to our West and slams straight into the UK at full pelt then we'll get battered. If, on the other hand it's still building strength as it passes over then we may escape with the usual Gale - Severe Gale It might very well get swallowed by the larger Low to it's north, or it might completely miss us and head into France. I think a lot depends on exactly when this thing joins the Jet stream, how it interacts with it....as with a lot of things in life, it's all about timing ! I think (for what it's worth), that the GFS is onto something and by Sunday it will be apparent that it will have been something that only EVER (as a major event) existed inside a computer model, some of us will (for a time) get some beefy winds and a lot of rain, but that's all. Just a typical Autumn ''storm'' ...we'll see

HA HA That's created by James Mad den's Nemisis. That has about as much chance as coming off and Captain Mad Den's Ice Age Mageddon prediction and should be ignored in equal measure. I STILL think we will have a warmer winter than the previous 6 and have thought so since July (and publicly stated it too), based on nothni9g else than pattern matching, and looking at previous winters where conditions have been SIMILAR. 2002 | 2003 seems a good comparison Winter IMO.

I bet the elderly would survive just fine. They know how to deal with a harsh winter ! We really don't give old people enough credit, I mean they went through a World War for crying out loud and a HARSH winter only a few years later and they did just fine , I think it's the 20 something's and the teenagers who would get caught out as some of them think they are untouchable and don't have respect for mother nature the same way the elderly do !

It really is too early to be getting excited about Dec | Jan | Feb just yet. Once we get to the end of October and the Strat topic starts to have some life injected in it from Chino Et All, then for me it's when the hunt for snow and cold begins. That's likely to be at the beginning of November. It's evident to my eyes at least that were in the throws of undergoing a change of weather type and I agree that the Atlantic looks like it might awaken with vengance between Mid Month and the end of Oct. Not too sure what November might have in store, which is why I just don't see the point of getting excited about a January chart, on of those posted above showed -12 Uppers all the way down to Benidorm ..there's as much chance of that as there is of me stumbling across a group of fornicating furry's whilst on a walk across the hills, and mistaking one of them for a girzzly bear.

That's the most sensible post I've read on here all day.

Nice information there, which has cheered me up !! I was, however , under the impression that Octobers snow GAIN over Eurasia was what signalled a good chance of a cold Winter here, so to have such early snowfall over that area means that it's going to be a tall order to get significant gains during October ?? Maybe I am confusing myself, but I was always under the impression that it's not so much the extent of snowfall early on , but more the rapid GAIN of snow over Russia and into Europe during October ?? So if one already has a fair sized area of snowfall over Russia already, it's less likely to see significant a rapid gains during October as there is less area to see a GAIN during October ?I think it's a common misconception that the earlier we see snow spreading West across Russia the better our chances of tapping into it, but it's the rapid growth in particular during October that signals a better chance of us seeing some cold and snow from the High pressure that forms over it and gives us those Easterly's ?? If that makes sense ?

I recall last winter how some people were explaining that before we get snowfall , we need to have the cold air in place. I fear that this Winter the vast majority will struggle to get any cold air entrenched long enough for what falls out of the sky to be white. Perhaps this winter is going to be one where we see a lot of front edge or back edge snowfall ? as opposed to extended periods of it ?? The Atlantic is very quiet for the time of year and I wonder what (If any) effect this might have as we head into Winter ?? I don't know what it is, but I just feel all the ingredients that might suggest we're headed for a cold Winter just feel like they are not there right now and the closer we get the more my gut instinct is telling me not to get excited about any cold and snow prospects this time around.

OK OK...Gordon Bennett. Perhaps the past 5 or 6 winters were not statistically cold, but they were a damn sight cooler than the 10 that preceded them and had way more snow events up and down the length of the UK, hence they stick out in the memory for the vast majority. And Nature has and always will work in cycles , how anyone can argue other wise is beyond me. The same is true with the weather, it's a matter of logic. So yes we are over due a milder winter than we have seen for a while and the problem with a lot of people who (Like me) love the cold, is that they tend to ignore all the data that supposes or indicates a mild Winter may be on the cards and they will look for any scrap of evidence that suggests otherwise. In essence they are blinkered , now I am in no way saying this is the case with you Damien or anyone else that left a comment on my original post, it's just an observation. Will we see a cold Winter 2013/2014 ?? Personally I don't think so..even more so by your own standard of what you consider a ''Cold Winter'' . I'll be a happy man if proven wrong though, I am about as hardened a 'coldy' as it is possible to get !!

As we get closer to Winter it's becoming (At least to me), more evident that more people are leaning on the side of a milder Winter, than a cold one. I recall this time last year, hardly anyone was in the Mild camp, most were speculating that a cold one was on the way and some were going for an average one. But I saw very few if any, predictions for a mild one. I (just for the record), was and still am inclined to say that I think we'll get a quite mild Winter in comparison to the past 5 or 6. It really is very unusual to have 6 cool winters back to back in the UK and for that reason alone I just can't see it being cold this Winter, but I am not saying wall to wall sunshine and warmth. I think a few short lived cold snaps at best and with a fair amount of regularity in all 3 months of Winter, but the pre set I think will be for mild and wet.

HA HA talk about covering all angles. So in essence , we'll get a big storm every now and then, there will be some flooding from time to time and we'll experience cold winters , warm winters, cool summers and hot summers. So to sum up, they have not a clue and are just stating the obvious; wrapping it up like it's something out of the norm. I

I would build me a boat from the bones and skin of the residents of Woking and sail North East

And when, come March 2014, we'll all be happy to just see one snow flake, after the mildest winter for 1/2 a decade...we'll be blaming it all on the QBO !

HA HA Gaz !! You do love to get backs up on here :-) My Hopes are... Dec - Slow start, White XMas inti new year Jan - Cold and snow Feb - Cold and snow March - Cold and snow My Expectations based on CURRENT indications... Dec - Average Jan - Mild Feb - Average I think there's likely to be a lot of disappointed people on here this Winter and I think many won't see a flake all winter long :-(

We haven't stopped Evolving at all. You wait and see, in 100,000 years time we're all going to look like this >>