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EML Network

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  1. EML Network
    I can't see why the sudden dispondency this morning. It's not been looking favorable for cold all winter long, I see no sudden change this morning ?? nearly every time you find High Pressure lurking to the South of the UK in set up's like this, you'll find it hard to get a route to cold that lasts more than a few days. As soon as the Jet Stream weakens , that high pressure looks ready to move up from the Azores, and tbh the High pressure that has taken up residence for I don't know how long in Western | Southern Russia hasn't helped our cause either....when those two pressure systems link up like they have done since Winter began, then the low pressure systems rolling into the UK have only one way to go which is to ride over the top. It's constant presence has meant that all the bombs of Low pressure we have been getting are all taking the same route all winter long. What is interesting is the formation of the Arctic High, what this essentially means is that the lows now have very little room to go anywhere, they are likely to disperse all of their energy over Northern Europe, and NW Russia. I would be expecting some biblical rainfall totals over those areas if things come off as modeled. It's difficult to see a route out of all of this, I think the first step is to await the Jet stream to become less intense , so perhaps we need to see the temperature gradient just south of newfoundland to be wider. I.E instead of having -20 uppers to + 10 uppers in the space of 75 miles, it would help lessen the power of the jet stream if that gradient was over a MUCH longer distance. Once the Jet stream dies down a little, it might give a window of opportunity for everything else to re order .Apologies if all of the above sounds like complete hog wash, it's just my take on things and it's probably complete rubbish, but hey ho I'm still trying to figure it all out :-)
  2. EML Network
    Satellite image captures Santa making his way home
  3. EML Network
    Well the ECM makes a tentative ant step in the right direction. problem is that by the time it gets to ''the right direction'' it'll be June. Overall pattern of High pressure to the South and Low pressure to the North, however, remains and you can see how we'd likely end up right back where we started at the beginning of December. Prospects for cold and snow remain as illusive as ever tonight ..for most of us:-(
  4. EML Network
    Things have suddenly stepped up a notch here. Constant 50 Mph winds now and regular gusts of 60 Mph + the longest period of sustained high winds here for many years
  5. EML Network
    Certainly sounds winder here, but our local weather station has had the wind speed and gusts at pretty much the same since 9PM. Still the Max Gust here at 66 Mph from earlier this evening. http://www.shorehambeachweather.co.uk/
  6. EML Network
    the Max Gust here is STILL at 66 Mph. I was expecting it to be more than that by now Tbh. Not so sure we're going to get these Gusts of up to 80 Mph , unless it really starts to turn up a few notches soon. Seems to have leveled out now at 40-45 Knots,gusting occasionally to 55 - 60 Mph.
  7. EML Network
    things down here have really started to turn up a notch, our top Gust is still at 66 Mph , though.
  8. EML Network
    Blowing at an almost constant 45mph here. Steady and ever so slowly the gusts are getting back up toward 55 mph every 30 seconds or so... http://www.shorehambeachweather.co.uk/
  9. EML Network
    Thus far on the Coast just West of Brighton here we've reached 66mph Max gust. Winds did fall a little lighter for an hour or so but have since started to gradually increase a little. Also noticed a slight change in direction, which strikes me as a little odd. Will post updates later. Speeds shown below are in Knots..
  10. EML Network
    Absolutely incredible out there in Brighton. Max Gust this side of Brighton and Hove thus far tonight = 66mph http://www.shorehambeachweather.co.uk/ Had to wait for a bus not too far from the pier and the winds were fierce and relentless. and still 6 1/2 hour till it peaks here !!!!!!
  11. EML Network
    just recorded a 60 mph Gust here in Shoreham | http://www.shorehambeachweather.co.uk/
  12. EML Network
    REALLY beginning to blow hard now here in Brighton. Rain is relentless too Max Gust so far = 54mph | http://www.shorehambeachweather.co.uk/
  13. EML Network
    So we have warnings out for rain, wind, snow and now ice. And people wonder why we are obsessed with the weather in the UK. I think a lot of people have forgotten the power of water, yes 80 Mph gusts are likely to bring down tree's , especially given that there is likely to be a lot of already weakened tree's after recent days and weeks. Given saturated ground and massive amounts of rain on the way, this will only add to the potential of tree's coming down. HOWEVER, flooding is likely to be far more widespread and has the potential to be far more damaging , lets not forget scenes like this ... Which is FAR more worrying as a possibility than the odd rogue gust of 90 Mph. It's not often the Met Office give an amber warning for rain, so they must see this as very concerning. !!
  14. EML Network
    Yes the Met Office will of course update their warning to amber most likely tomorrow and possibly today. The current warnings were made yesterday and so they are likely to be playing very close attention to how everything is evolving before upgrading the warning. I doubt they will put it to a red warning, though. It would take gusts in excess of 90 mph for that. My eyes are also being drawn to the 27, 28th , if the ingredients ''come together'' that pressure system could really pack an almighty punch. 06z control run.. Run 4 run 5 Run 6 Run 7 Run 13 (unlucky for some) Run 17 Run 18 Pretty much every run has the UK under some very high wind speeds on 27, 28th and the West in particular looks to cop the worst of the winds as things stand. TheN of course, there is NYE ...a story for another day
  15. EML Network
    Running through the Ensembles and I'd say just about everyone no matter where you are in the UK is going to experience some very windy days on the run up to and beyond XMas. I'd also say there is growing support for the South Coast to cop it at some point weither just before, on or just after the big day itself. ..just looking at the first 5 runs let alone the other 15...ALL of them have the Southern half of the UK under some very high winds either just before on or just after XMas.
  16. EML Network
    Max Gust here 59 MPH | http://www.shorehambeachweather.co.uk/
  17. EML Network
    90 MPH gust at Mace Head . W Coast of Ireland http://www.xcweather.co.uk/
  18. EML Network
    Maximum gust so far here just West of Brighton = 55 MPH. http://www.shorehambeachweather.co.uk/weather/ShorehamWeather.htm
  19. EML Network
    A perfect fit, covering the whole of Europe and Iceland and even part of Greenland. now THAT is what you call a low pressure system..all be it there there are 2 distinct systems wrapped up in here
  20. EML Network
    You know it's a bad winter for cold and snow when folks are getting excited about the prospect of some transient wet stuff falling but not settling ...roll in 2014. In the nearer time frame and both the GFS and the ECM have the South Coast battening down the hatches and putting out the sand bags for Boxing day. GFS Plenty of time for change, but almost every single run over the past week has been showing something extreme for the 3 days of Xmas and especially so for the 26/27th
  21. EML Network
    You couldn't make it up !!
  22. EML Network
    HOLY MOO, That Low pressure system is the size of Europe !!!
  23. EML Network
    Reading the Met Office's 6-30 day outlook's and you have to wonder if both the GFS and the ECM are overcooking the lows from the weekend onward, especially so the further south you go. The constant message from them remains that the NW will see the worst of the weather and the SE is likely to be drier. To me this suggests that they are seeing High pressure building back from the South to effect the South and Jet stream positioning itself further North than what the GFS and ECM are modelling it to be. That being said the GFS has remained absolute (bar one run), over the past week especially so for the XMas period with pretty all of us experiencing a few days of very high wind speeds. I for one would be gutted if we don't at least get one decent storm out of this, if it's not going to be cold than at least give us something , a plain old wondy day with rain and normal temperatures is about as bad as it gets. On the up side the Ensembles are slowly starting to trend cooler in the UK and in parts of Europe toward the end of the runs, a trend that has been showing consistently now for some time, so here's hoping the new year will usher in something more seasonable.
  24. EML Network
    It can't have escaped people's attention that XMas Eve, XMas Day, Boxing day right through until the turn of the year all have the potential to deliver damaging gusts of wind. not to mention this Wednesday and the coming weekend !!! Here's what the ''highlights'' of what the 06z GFS has to offer up XMAS EVE Boxing Day 28th Dec
  25. EML Network
    Common give me a break :-( Absolute knightmare of a ECM at 216 High pressure stretching from China to our East, right the way to the Eastern Seaboard of the States to our West. Might as well give up and go home tbh
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