EML Network

So looking ahead of what is likely to be the coldest week of the winter so far... the UKMO 12z goes from Hero to Zero in terms of snow + cold potential in the space of a few days ! The GFS is still intent on firing another volley of Low Pressure bombs at us, that makes it about 7,000 this Winter so far.. A nice snug fit slap bang on top of the UK from the GFS so start next weekend >> UKMO for the same day... couldn't further away if it tried. In fact the only thing the 2 charts have in common is that neither paints a particularly cold picture, although it could be worse I suppose. The only shred of comfort is that the 12z GFS, does give us a SSW very late in the run... Maybe the snow gods will look upon the UK in pity and say ''OK here's a nice big fat SSW what you lacked in cold and snow this winter we will deliver unto you for the final 2 weeks of Feb and you can all enjoy 10 weeks worth of snow in 14 days'' in the words of Dwayne Dibley... ''You never know''

As ha already been pointed out the way things currently stand there looks to be a range of options on the table post + 96 , but there a very few options that paint a picture that includes an extension of an Easterly feed. Here IS our Easterly. GFS really is not interested in dropping the 2nd low some time around Friday, instead it wants it to take the same route every other Low pressure this Winter has taken and knock our block out of the way.... this chart is + 138 so isn't inside the reliable zone, but here's the end of the block from the GFS perspective. ECM at + 144 looks very similar You can see both models want to bring in a North Westerly feed afterward with some cold air entrenched and then both models are now in agreement about flattening everything out and back to stormy conditions. It's been the trend to flatten the pattern out and put us right back where we started in December for the past 4 or 5 days now. Not welcome news for those who are looking for an end to the wet weather IMO. IF THIS COMES TO PASS, then I really can't see where another shot at cold would come from. Due to the ECM evolution over the past few days IMO the 2nd nail in the coffin has been firmly nailed down for Winter 2013 / 2014. let's enjoy what next week brings and hope things change over the next few days / runs. But when both the ECM and GFS fall very much in line with the Met Office's outlook for Feb, you have to admit it's not looking good after this week.

I should imagine Shannon Entropy is a Maximum levels this morning judging by the mess being shown by the models. The GFS ensembles have been creeping up over the past few days and as I was gunned down for saying yesterday the ensembles clearly want to see a quick return to mobile westerly driven weather. This is being shown by the GFS for next weekend and is exactly what the Met Office outlook suggests. I'M NOT SAYING THIS WILL COME TO PASS THIS WAY And I'm not taking any one run as gospel and I'm not saying that any one model is better than another I'm simply using the data available and saying what it is showing. !!. GFS for Next Sunday ... No matter what anyone else tells me, the further away you get from the - 5 line, the more you need other factors to play ball for anything falling from the sky to be snow. What has got me excited for probably the 1st time this Winter, is the JMA. This is very similar to what gave a large swath of the UK a good old dumping of snow last winter.... Uppers... However, posting charts at + 192 at this moment in time, is a bit of a pointless exercise. I'm just proving that I am not all doom and gloom as I have been accused of, I'm not trying to second guess what ''I THINK'' is going to happen, I am showing what the charts are saying and doing my best to interpret that. The ECM wants the same Low pressure as shown above to drop South, WELL East of the UK, and if anything that run would keep us in with a shout of seeing further cold and snow potential. So to sum up the models are all over the place on the face of it, but they do all show a broadly similar set up, tomorrow's Low takes a long time to sink south, we do develop a form of Easterly, but it's not a long fetch Easterly, with the exception of the UKMO, which shows by FAR the coldest chart of the Winter so far at + 144 It really is pointless trying to second guess what comes next, the GFS wants a return to mobile mostly westerly driven weather, the ECM wants to sit on the fence and If I were to look at the 192 charts available and pick a favorite it would be the JMA outcome. Overall I am feeling more positive than at any other time this Winter, that a cold spell is coming, as for snow, I still feel it's too marginal. The UKMO and JMA are both looking good , but as always were chasing charts and until they get within + 96 and showing something similar it's silly to get excited.

I won't ''come on board'' until I see snow falling from the sky !! those charts above we both illuded to are for 2nd Feb. How many times this winter are we looking at charts that ''might'' deliver something snowy more than 7 days out ?? only for it to never materialize. It amazes me that some of you on here simply don't ever learn and fall into the same trap time and time again. To get snowfall you don't just need uppers of or close to Minus 5. You need dew points lower than 0, you need to look at the ''wet bulb'' and the higher the humidity the better. You also need to look at the larger picture and I'm sorry but the charts for next week look too marginal, you only need to look at the ensembles to see that things are on the wrong side of maerginal for most of us. I'll be only too happy to come back here on 1st Feb and say I was wrong when the country grinds to a halt because of heavy snowfall, I doubt however many of you would come back and hold up your hands and say YOU are wrong, when we're in the midst or more wind and rain. the ECM is clearly showing a NW feed later in the run and the GFS is showing a return to Westerly drive weather in it's later stages, similar to yesterdays 06z run in fact. I'd LOVE it to snow next week, god oinly knows I love snow as muxch as everybody else, but I'm not going to allow myself to be lead up the garden path by charts that are close, but not close enough IMBY and I've learn't the hard way not to get excited about a North Westerly epecially if the cold air isn't already in place before it arrives !!!

the ECM paints a very dull picture this morning with the cold air flooding out of Eastern Europe in the later stages. This mornings GFS run paints a broadly similar picture, it's clear to me that the Atlantic is going to win this round and I think the battle too. I'll get shot down for saying this, but for me we're in injury time, 2 - 0 down witrh 5 minutes of added time to be played. next week looks cool, but I think a North West feed is pants for the vast majority, dew points unlikely to be condusive of snowfall for most except those in elevators. I don't mean to come across as pessamistic, just realistic. But just to balance things out .....

Well the 18z just goes to show what would happen it the initial Low pressure system merges with another, stalls and takes it's time to shift south. The cold air is readily mixed out and the really cold air stays far out to the East of the UK, we never really tap into it at all. I'd say that given the current output that rain is by far going to be the major concern. It's a case of rinse and repeat on this run, the Atlantic onslaught just shows no sign of backing down and round after round it's winning hands down over the block to the East, which just stays in situ. so the 12z showed a Bartlett beginning to take shape in the later stages, this run shows a relentless Atlantic steam. The Met Office clearly under the impression that the NW effected by the most unsettled weather with the SE seeing the best of the dry weather, which is indicative of somewhere in between the 12z and 18z GFS runs. And a classic + NAO outlook. Sadly I think this is going to end up as yet another missed opportunity and time is beginning to run out.

Running through the various GFS runs and the overwhelming route post 192 is for a series of deep Lows to run across the UK (YET AGAIN) west to East and then there seems to be support growing for us to end RIGHT back where we started at the beginning of Dec with a Bartlett setting up. IF it comes to pass this way , then we can kiss goodbye to Winter 2013 / 2014 and I guess it will be hibernation time for the majority of posters on here. Of course nothing is ever set in stone and anything beyond + 120 is always going to flip flop around, but if it's trends you're looking for this is where things look to be headed. Tallies up with the Met Office ''Outlook'' as well. This Winter has been a real let down in just about every regard as it relates to the weather. I'll be glad to see the back of it tbh and I'm finding myself for the first time ever looking forward to the summer.

HA HA HA HA HA that made me chuckle :-) I think Nick has hit the nail on the head with this one and for me it's all too much on the wrong side of marginal for this neck of the woods at least. I'd like to see the High Block to the East being modelled a good few hundred miles further West hence the Low being also modelled the same. It's nearly always the same with this type of set up in that everything is shunted East the closer we get and we end up narrowly missing out. The fact that the UKMO model is painting the best picture at + 144 gives me hope though, already this year the ECM and GFS have both painted a nice + 144 outcome that failed to come to pass, so let's see if it's a case of 3rd time lucky with the UKMO. The JMA 06z Run is often left out of the equation when people are posting charts so for me it's interesting to see how close the morning run is to the overnight UKMO run for the same time frame so here's the JMA 06z Run for 7PM Sunday And here's the overnight UKMO for 1am on Monday morning which is as close as you can get with the increments being slightly out of phase with a 06z run.. VERY little in it. It does look like next week at least for a time will be the coldest part of winter 2013 / 2014 for many of us , I might actually have to put the heating on, but I'm not overly convinced many will see any meaningful snowfall from this. If I were going to pick a day when current indications favor the best chance for seeing snow I'd be looking at overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, dew points look good for central England as does the Humidity levels Although the Uppers are very much too close for comfort It's all very close and too close to call for my liking, which normally means that elevation is key. In my opinion....as things stand anyway

I'm from Shoreham. And I can confirm that it's been one of the mildest Dec - January 23 periods I can ever remember down here (mind you I did spend the 90's living elsewhere so I can't comment about those winters down here). But certainly since 2000. I have not put on the central heating once this year !! I can't recall any Winter down here that has been so mild and so wet ...and so boring (weather wise)

Well this mornings ECM run has pretty much put one nail in the coffin for Autumn 2013 / 2014. the Block to the NE retreats, the LP sinks well South of the UK and HP which has been superglued over the Azores for what feels like 10 months sits to the West ready to pounce and even scupper our chances of getting anything meaningfull cool zonality. The Jet stream has been so strong this winter, fed by a massive Polar Vortex sitting upstream, feeding energy into the Jet to the point where even when the building blocks to a cold episode have been in place elsewhere we have not benefited from it due to being directly underneath the Jet Stream the gfs at + 96 is typical of the Jet Stream's strenght and position all winter long, if the UK was situated another 500 miles to the East things would have been very different since the start of the new year. so far IMBY this has been the worst winter I can remember in terms of annoying weather and probably the worst in my memory for cold and snow. 4 frosts all winter IMBY and none of them were exacltly hard frosts either.

IMO there is reason to be more hopeful tonight for cold and snow lovers than at any other point during the winter so far. In the semi reliable time frame nearly the whole of the UK is (at least for a time) inside or hovering around that magic - 5 dam line. I Expect some are going to see the first flakes of snow this Winter from this, assuming it doesn't change too much + 78 is probably just inside the reliable time frame. The ECM is full of promise on the final frame and the linking of High Pressure over the Azores to Greenland is something that seems to be showing up on various runs on occasion over the past 5 days, so there's clearly the potential for this to come to pass. What strikes me as interesting is the JMA model going for something similar... The only model that has backed away from this outcome is the GFS OP, which was the first to pick up on it, and then ditched it a day or two later. OK if it comes to pass like the ECM and JMA are hinting at, then IMO it could go either way, with a quick return to milder weather or something much tastier could develop from the sort of set up being shown by the JMA in particular. It would be nice to see just one decent cold spell this Winter. So to sum up IMO we're finally entering Winter now, OK it's not the snowmageddon so many of us crave, but it's looking a darn site cooler than it has been thus far for most of us and even if the Atlantic does win out, we still have some cold North Westerly weather on the cards which for a few would deliver something wintry even for just a short while. . Just s long as it doesn't bucket down with rain, I for one am fed up of turning up to work day after day like a drowned rat, it's not nice when one has 2 * 30 minute walks to get to work interspersed by a delayed or cancelled train journey and then having to repeat the process in the early evening in more of the same yucky rain. That being said the weather will do as it pleases and I'd not be at all surprised to see the models back down entirely from a cool outlook into a mobile wet one again.

ha ha ha ha ha. The building blocks are there and it's fiunely balanced as to whether or not some of us will actrually get a snowfall within the next 10 -1 5 days ....or not. IF things go the way of the pear and the Atlantic wins out it's very plausable that we'd have to wait another couple of weeks before we get another bite at the cherry and by that time it would be Mid Feb. So it's almost make or bust time but not quite, especially given what happened last March !!

IMO a Cold Feb is on the cards , I've seen enough background evidence now that leads me to the form belief we'll see a swift pattern change as we head into the beginning of next month. I believe this will come from a gradual slowing down of events upstream allowing time for High pressure over the azores to meander North and West of the UK linking up with a Greeny High. (or something similar) This then opening the door for a Northerly to set up shop temporarily and IMO we'll start to see some sliding low pressure systems rolling across the English channel underneath the block instead of running over the top and thus leading us to the holy grail of a decent North Easterly | Easterly feed. IMO the GFS 06z control and Operational is trending in the right direction and I suspect other LR models and anomally charts to start picking up on HLB soon. 06z Control run

Yeah good point, I expect there are a few others in there that might be milder than this one too, I think I was just letting off some steam. It really has felt incredibly warm IMBY this Winter, or maybe it's because I have put on weight and don't feel it as much as I did when I was a stick insect with no meat on me bones :-)

It certainly feels like it's been one of the mildest Winters I can ever remember. I think we've only put the heating on half a dozen times this winter and most of those were in late November. With no hint of anything cold coming on the Met Office longer range outlook which currently goes up to 10th Feb I think.....then if we are to get a colder period to tip the overall balance back, I'd say this Winter will without doubt come out as one of the mildest since the turn of the century if not THE mildest since 2000.

Im giving up the hunt for cold and snow it's just not gonna happen. I suspect the next decade will be mild winter after mild winter and the only places that will see any noteworthy snow will be on the highest peaks of the very highest hills. Stupid bloody weather

Well the writing was on the wall the moment the models started shunting everything back East again. We've ended up pretty much where we started when the signal for cold was first picked up by the ECM and that is for the cold to stay East of the UK. I've lost count of the number of times this has happened in the past, pretty much every Winter we get a faux Easterly in the the models, however, the good thing is that more often than not a Faux Easterly is followed eventually by the real deal. It's the normal way of things for us to need several bites at the cherry before we hit the jackpot, it's just sad that it's taken us 1/2 of the Winter to get the first failed bite. It's also Worth bearing in mind that this only ever existed inside a computer model and has yet come to pass...it could flip back again but the odd's are not i favor of that happening. I'm hopeful of something colder at the end of the month and into Feb. I have a sneaky feeling Feb is going to be colder than average nationwide

Whilst ot taking any one or indeed two runs at face value I am seeing a general trend or pattern beginning to show up in relation to next week. And that is for High Pressure over the Azores to link up with High Pressure over Scandinavia, flatten out and sink, with warmer westerly's running over the top and across the whole of the UK. something a bit like this > and I do appreciate that this is 10 days away, but it's a general theme I am seeing across lots of different models. Something which I was told yesterday ''would never happen'' , so we'll see won't we ! If I were to put a bet on, I would suggest that we won't get a cold spell of weather such as what was being modelled over the past few ECM runs and that the cold will stay out to our East, as is so often the case. Howver, I wouldn't be suprised to see a ''reload'' from the North followed by a North Easterly. IMO if we are to see a sustained cold spell this Winter is going to start by coming from the North and progressing into a NE'sterly.

DO NOT MISQUOTE ME !! This was my initial post >> ''It is looking like a cold snap though as opposed to a cold spell, maybe 3-5 days before a return to Westerly's.'' Once again the 12z follows on from the 06z showing a quick(ish) return to a Westerly feed after an all too brief cold spell Yes it's F.I indeed we may not get an Easterly at all and so this may become irrelevant The UKMO 12z doesn't want to go with the undercut, but you can see how one might come soon after but the Azores High once again is scuppering things chances are if you were to go by the UKMO 12z that the UK would end up in a no mans land with the cold being limited to the North and North East.

You have essentially answered your own question , if it was Westerly's all the way only one week ago, then this cold interlude is likely to be just that. ..an interlude. With Westerly's following on closely behind, perhaps a pattern change to something longer lasting at the end of this month A'la MET O. And observations don't need to be made with confidence do they ? they are only observations. Besides the 06z Ensembles back me up as does the final frame of the ECM. ..I haven't yet looked at the ECM ensembles but I suspect they too will paint a broadly similar outcome.

Finally the hunt for cold and snow begins. Certinaly not going to do a victory dance yet , but after enduring 6 weeks of mush and muck it's a joy to finally have a carrott dangling in front of us. It is looking like a cold snap though as opposed to a cold spell, maybe 3-5 days before a return to Westerly's. But i'd take that given what we have had up until now. Hopefully th ensembles and 12z runs will continue the trend towards cold and potentially snowy.

That about sums it up for me. A very complex set up which can go one of about 20 different ways. That chart shows where FI starts and I wouldn't like to be a forecaster trying to predict what comes next looking at that FAX update. The only thing that is apparent is that there is little sign of cold setting up shop in the UK and staying for any longer than a day or two at best. Perhaps the back end of January will offer up more hope, but I very much doubt it based on the background signals ?

Looks like we have some sort of agreement between the GFS and the ECM this morning on the overall pattern moving through up until the first 1/3 of January. For a while the ECM and the GFS had both toyed with various options, from HLB over Scandi...to MLB to the West ...to High pressure nudging back in from the South. Throughout, the most prominent and likely outcome was either High pressure nudging back in from the South West, or a continuation of the unsettled and sometimes stormy theme. The answer as if often the case when 2 options look a likely outcome, is somewhere in between, leaning more toward to unsettled side. So IMO were likely to see lots more unsettled weather, with periods of strong winds and lots of rain, interspersed with the odd dry day here in between different systems moving through. Temperatures at least in the upper atmosphere do look to be cooling off somewhat and I should imagine that this, coinciding with the wind and the rain will make for some cold feeling days ahead, even if the air temperature isn't reading low. That coupled with periods of snow falling over the hills in the north and perhaps a mixture of rain, sleet and wet snow even at lower levels further south on occasion. What I can't see anywhere is weather coming from anywhere other than the West or North West. If we are to see a cold period of weather lasting more than a few days then it's not going to be in the first 1/2 of winter. Will Feb come to the rescue ?? ...I don't think it will...perhaps cold , but I don't think we'll get the PPN to come with it...just a hunch :-) I'm seeing 2 patterns in recent runs and have taken a snap shot of the GFS at + 240 06z run to highlight my point. In the image above I have highlighted a sort of ''tripole'' of pressure systems which I have seen over and over again on recent runs. Essentially with Low pressure sandwiched in between High Pressure to the ENE and High Pressure to the ESE With a sort of ''trough'' of Low pressure running through the middle coming in from the NW and running SE...or approximate to that. The Red line indicates another pattern which has been with us all Winter long, this is to highlight that the 2 High Pressure systems lay in wait to link back up again once the Jet Stream dies down a little. So in my very very very limited knowledge view...once things calm down up stream, IMO the most likely route is for High Pressure to become established once again from the South, the Jet Stream moves further north and were back to dry, settled (for the most part) and...mild :-( I really cannot see how this pattern is going to get broken, unless we can separate those 2 areas of High pressure long enough for them to move apart from one another.

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Cannon Fodder System, or perhaps curious forecasting system. Either way it's been well off the mark for December. Looking ahead and it seems like more of the same to me, lots of low pressure systems hurling themselves into the UK, with smaller ones spawning en route, some vigorous others not. I still think the most likely outcome is for High Pressure to meander back into the UK from the South West and we end up with 1/2 of winter gone and right back to where we started at the beginning of Dec. Who knows...maybe Feb can come to the rescue ??