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HA HA HA The poor old ECM doesn't know what to do. It goes from this > Tbh I saw this and thought an Easterly was going to be on the next frame...but no the next frame showed this... So then I thought ''Dammit game over'' ...and then the next frame shows this ..... then i thought.. ''game on'' and it did this.. So now I'm going down the pub

A thought has occurred to me this morning, something which I have been thinking for a time, but really didn't want to accept. But, given how things are shaping up, many of us could very well go through this entire cold spell without seeing anything falling from the sky that is white, the charts look cold yes, but the consistent theme is that they are also looking dry. I'll be really gutted if we get to the end of this cold spell and don't see any snow, that would be a harder pill to swallow than not having the cold at all. The UKMO at + 144 doesn't look great to me , OK it's not mild, but it's as dry as a bone, the Easterly being shown by the ECM is too slack for any PPN and it's all too brief an affair. Indeed further North there is no easterly feed at all on the ECM The 18z GFS Ensembles were pure heaven, I've not yet seen the 00z , but looking at the OP it's not really giving much thought to an Easterly setting up shop either. Don't get me wrong some people have had snow and that's great, we've all had the cold and that' great too, it's just I can see a lot of folks seeing naff all in the way of snow from this, if it pans out as the big 3 are showing, what use if having the cold if it aint gonna produce the goods. I hope we see a shift toward a more beefy Easterly in the coming days, or at least a reload from the North West to keep things interesting

Glad some of you guys are getting some decent snow showers, here's hoping we all get a good pasting at some point over the next week

rain, wasn't expecting anything else tho

I think I saw a snowflake

just went outside in nowt but my jeans, TIShirt and jumper and it was actually quite pleasant !! not even my feet got coldid

really ?? I'm in the office right next to Camp Town :-) and I saw diddly squatt, not only that but the Dew points here are way too high for snowfall, currently the closest reiable station in Shoreham has our Dew point as 3.1 and the temperature as 7.1, not even close to support snowfall :-(

I know we're not supposed to try and 2nd guess what comes next, but I'm not liking the ECM. That Low looks like it's going to smash right through the UK on this run and mix out the cold air ? * Edit, OK I'll shut up now (Idiot mode cancel)

Well I'm not expecting anything down here throughout this entire cold spell, it's going to be hell down here, whilst everyone else in the entire universe gets seventeen foot of snow, including the inner core of the sun, we'll probably get seagulls flying out of the sky stealing peoples doughnuts

the calm before the storm ?

She looks like she's trying to squeeze one out. But yes the favored option is for High pressure to push in towards the UK next week, looking through the ensembles this morning though it seems to be ditching that idea and instead going for an all too quick return the westerly's. but this is just one run and the theme for the past few days has been for High pressure to nose in from the west wouldn't take much of a Westward movement for that Low over Italy to come into play though

Yup after all the excitement and ''what if's '', the ensembles once again hold true, a cold snap of 5 days, we've even lost the attempt at a SSW event late in the run that was teasing us for a while back. If the ensembles hold true as they tend to do and if the Met Office update and some other ramblings I have heard also hold true, spring might arrive early and this winter will have been a short lived, but fairly typical one, I suspect many are going to have a snowless winter once more. I have not seen snow falling this winter, but I did wake up to a very very very slight dusting, somehow unless you see it falling it just doesn't have the same effect. Ensembles for Derby (Mid England) Only 2 members hold out any hope of prolonged cold, I make that 10% chance of the cold remaining in place after 4th Feb. Rule of thumb , if a cold and snowy chart gets to within + 72 hours then you can start to get excited, any further out than that and you're setting yourself up for disappointment, sure you can look at the charts, discuss it, and like what you see (if it looks nice) , but always take it with a massive pinch of salt. I would say there's time for it to change, but I don't think there is.

Glad I don't live there, can you imagine how boring it would be. ''Today the weather will be the same as it was yesterday and the day before that and every other day before that since this time last year'' 18z seems to be playing out the same way as it's 12z , amazed at the difference between the center of the low at +96 between the GFS and other models. Gfs + 96 ECM has the center of that low some 500 miles further East at a time frame of just 4 days away !! UKMO even more so, quite remarkable how the GFS is modelling this incoming Low, compared to the other models. Is it going to have egg on it's face yet again ?

Solid agreement between the UKMO and ECM at + 144, leads one to think that the UKMO evolution wouldn't be too far away from the ECM evolution perhaps UKMO + 144 ECM + 144 GFS Op for comparison JMA is more similar at + 144 but goes on to show the Azores High taking control a few frames later GFS out on it's own at that particular juncture. But the Azores still sits there waiting to pounce , I can't even remember the last time that Azores high wasn't there, does it ever go away ???

I don't know what has changed, but all of a sudden today I can understand why the mod's and so many seasoned model watchers get frustrated by knee jerk reactions. I am clueless as to why some people are already dismissing this run as being a downgrade or saying words to that extent. we have a northerly feed and as others have stated previous to this disturbances within the pattern are now showing. it's simply a variation on a theme and theme is for a cold spell to develop something which I didn't think was going to happen a few days ago, so I need to maybe take a backseat for a bit and take some of my own advice.

And on that note netweather have two of those nice and snugly fitted into one ''drop down menu'' on the charts. select ''UK Surface Overview" and you'll see the dew points and humidity. Wednesday Night | Thursday morning and the whole of the UK on the 06 z run has dew points supportive of snow fall. Wed night 9pm and then Thursday morning, going through these periods the Dew point does increase overnight in the South presumably as the warmer moister air is mixed in from the West and then on the back edge of this the dew point drops again giving the possibility of back edge snow fall. Problem is that unless the temperature drops to below freezing and if you get snowfall on the back edge of rainfall, and if the wet bulb isn't sufficiently low enough the snowfall would simply melt into the rain the has preceded it. You can always click on ''previous run'' to swap between what the chart was showing at the same time frame in the previous run to see any consistency. The Dew point on the past few runs has at least been supportive of snowfall right through from Thursday and into the weekend for most , exception being the extreme South West and at times the south coast . It would be nice to have a wet bulb chart to view , I tend to go to a different site for that, so the wet bulb level shown foe Wed evening (this is showing the elevation needed in meters above sea level for the wet bulb level to be at freezing point) and then at 6am on Thursday So IMO as things stand the best chances many of are are going to get to see something white falling from the sky is overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning. I'm doubtful of seeing anything here, and if I was living along the coast in the south and south west I'd not be getting my hopes up, but then again we had a surprise snowfall here last week which wasn't modeled, wasn't forecast and just seemed to appear out of nowhere, so who knows.

It's going to snow in 5 days time !!...isn't it ??

This is going to turn into a winter that only really existed in a computer chart, gone are the deep cold charts on offer only a few days ago which always only ever seem to exist in FI these days. Replaced are watered down uppers that will not be condusive of snowfall in nearly all low lying areas...this the uppers on the GFS at + 144 Not even a hint of a -6 there !! The UKMO evolution is better at + 144 with more of an Easterly component, but it's still only good for favored areas. The overall trend today is to keep that damn Azores high waiting in the wings to ruin everything , IMO a short lived cold spell that will not be remembered this time next year as being any significant. This is the time when you start looking at trends to see if a decent cold spell is coming or if another 3 day cold snap is coming and the balance for me has shifted very much toward a cold snap of maybe 4 or 5 days at best before a return to westerly driven weather, to be honest the UK weather has become very predictable in the past 12 months, it's getting a bit boring now

I've seen enough in the past few days modelling to lead me to the conclusion that this will get watered down in the coming 3-4 days and by the time we get to Tuesday, Wednesday we'll be looking at another 2-3-4 day cold spell before the Atlantic and that damn Azores high rolls back in. So cold from Thursday through to the end of next weekend and then things warming back up the week afterward. I just don't think it was mean't to be this winter, despite everything else going in our favor, we've really missed an opportunity for a really cold winter and I think we'll be waiting a long time now for another opportunity like this one

I think you're absolutely right to mention this and it could still end up like that. If the cold spell is to be watered down to just a 2 or 3 day damp squib then you would expect that over the course of the weekend the tell tale sign would start to appear on some of the runs. The control run looks great But here's why you are right to be cautious as this could just as easily happen... personally I have seen enough evidence to really not care either way as IMBY I won't see snowfall from anything other than an Easterly, if you live along the East Coast of England then I'd be getting excited about this, if you're in N.ireland I'd be getting my snow shovels ready

The UKMO screams Wishbone effect, indeed looking across the board these charts are very cold, BUT they're not really at all good for snow inland or across the South. With this chart you would get snow running down the East and West coasts and they would fizzle out as they made their way inland it would be a frustrating day to say the least for many as they see their resident snow shields up and heaven for a few lucky others who saw lengthy spells of snow feeding in off the coast

I would have loved to have seen the next frame from the ECM as this system dived south East... The cold pool over to our East would be waiting in the wings to flood in and if this run came to pass the way it's shown the next frame would be snow heaven for many ..and probably the frame after that too I really hope that the ECM is on to something with this run, im my opinion it's the best run of the Winter so far for the evolution and the likelyhood of an extended cold run. Will await to see the ECM Ensembles with interest today, I think Feb is going to be anything but mild looking at how things are panning out, winter proper is just around the corner folks, it might be a slow gradual cooling down before we get there, but that's how a like it, get the cold in first and then let the fun and games begin

Have faith folks, I woke up in Brighton this morning to a dusting of snow, completely unexpected so who knows what might happen, if it can snow here right on the coast in one of the most snow starved places in England it can snow anywhere

Looking at the + 120 chart we have the following.... To our NW in the red ring we have a typical low pressure system sitting around to or close to Iceland, will it slide, will it roll over the top of who we have in the green ring... In the green ring and to our south West is our friend in summer and often our enemy in winter, the good old Azores, probably one ot the most major influencers in our weather, it's position often dictates what we get....will it have enough energy to roll over the UK, and default us back to a more westerly regieme In the blue ring and to our South East, we have the decaying Low pressure system sitting over Italy, this is what is left of the energy that was spat out of the low that was previously in the Red wing over Iceland, how long will it stay there, will it prop up High pressure to our North East and open up an opportunity for an Easterly ?? To our North East and in the Purple ring we have the outer reaches of a Russian high, it's center location a LONG LONG way away, but enough that it's interacting with the other contestants, will it try to push west, will it make way for the Atlantic ?? In the middle of all of this we have us, at the mercy of these systems, in a bit of a no mans land (according to the GFS and ECM), a bit of time out, a good day for a walk whilst we await to see if we'll need an umbrella, a coat, or a snow shovel. How will it play out ?? .. ECM + 120 GFS + 120

If only this would come to pass, can you imagine...the entire country enjoying snow This place would be either bedlam, or quiet as we'd all be out dancing around like crazed kids waving hands in the air and zig zagging down the roads yelling and laughing. knowing my luck that would be the exact moment the local mental assylum van drove past and I'd be picked up and carted off to a crazy home before I'd even made my first snow woman :-)