EML Network

Distant flashes here and rumbles of thunder...gradually getting closer...i think its going to get wild here soon !!

well its just started to kick off here in brighton lightning and thunder...let the fun commence. :-)

aye up just had a rumble of thunder in brighton !!!

looks like the stuff in the channel is fizzling out and I can't really see where anything else is going to come from...unless things start to develop later into the night. IMO for those in SC/ SE ...it's going to be yet another let down....perhaps the channel isn't warm enough to aid with convection ?? Late August is usually the best time for storms coming out plumes in my experi3nce

we had plenty of snow showers all day today, was out in the allotment for the best of it, but alas nothing settled. been sitting here patiently waiting for the next lot to arrive and ...it's rain :-( Ohh well, I think that's our lot this winter, it's been by far a much better winter than last one. we saw 2 frosts ALL Winter in 2015/2016 and we'd had more than that before winter had even begun this time. IMO winter 2017/2018 is going to be the one,I've had that feeling for a few years now and I think coming into Solar Minimum we'll see that the solar cycles are as good a guide as any.

Fantastic period of model watching this winter and finally it looks like we are generally in for a decent shout at the first decent country wide cold spell since March 2013, I did say earlier last week that I was getting excited for the first time this winter about the prospects of something really Wintery in the 2nd half of Feb and I can't wait to see the ensemble graph,some seriously cold charts being churned out. It's so good to see things ever so slightly ''upgrading'' from run to run, rather than the usual gradual downgrades. However, a word of caution, IMO the vast majority of us will once again need to be patient, as others have said the coming cold spell looks to be predominantly dry away from NE facing coats and this has been the likely outcome right from the outset. Other posters who are under the delusion that the entire country will be sitting under 6 foot of snow by this time next week will look a little silly....by this time next week. The 2nd bite of the cherry is by no means a certainty yet, but it's looking increasingly likely and IMO it's the 2nd bite that will pay dividends for some of us. when you get charts like this being spat out of the machines you know something elsewhere in the world is not playing the normal rules of the game and something is amiss Also looking through the GFS ensembles this morning (which I'm able to do for once as I'm off work sick and don't normally get opportunity to post on here these days)... I can only find one run that supports the ECM evolution...(Run 16) ECM The good news ...the laughable news...is that this is run 16 just 3 days later... So even if the ECM is on the money, the route to an Easterly still comes.. It seems right now that all roads lead to an Easterly that would deliver cold and snow for all (eventually)...this mornings 06 Suite is by far the best I have seen for a very very long time. That's the biggest ramp from me for 6 years !!!!

Well it's been a long time since I saw this, the whole of the UK blanketed in snow shame it's well well welllll into FI territory, but it's a beauty to behold none the less

Looking at the ECM +240 Pressure chart, IMO that it's a pretty good ending point, absolutely loaded with all sorts of possibilities thereafter. associated uppers... The ooz ECM is probably the most plausible chart I have seen at handling the probable evolution of the coming ''cold spell''. And make no mistake we are about to head into a colder spell of weather, IMO next week will be a near miss for most, but for the usual places along the NE Facing coasts then there may be some snow potential, but it's the week after that that I am beginning to get excited about, everything looks to be falling into place for a very cold 2nd half of Feb. First time this Winter that I have been excited.

Well it didn't take long for another interesting week of model watching to appear, at least this winter has given us massive amounts of eye candy...shame that so far none of them have really produced anything noteworthy in terms of snow. What concerns me from a cold lovers perspective, is that even if we do get this Easterly or ESE feed coming in, there is a distinct lack of cold uppers associated with it/ Case in point... GFS Control @ 300 looks like this on the 12z run On the face of it, that looks like some serious cold, but look at the uppers for the same time frame.. A thin slither of -8 uppers just about reaching the UK There are numerous other runs on the 12z that show something similar.... That run looks to be loaded with cold...but again the uppers for the same timeframe.. If we really do get charts that look anything like this in 2 weeks time and we get uppers not dipping below -5 then we might as well give up hope of ever getting a decent snowy spell of weather There's loads of other runs that look very similar...great looking charts but no real cold uppers. Story of this winter is that we've had some fantastic HLB BUT ALWAYS SEEM TO BE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THINGS. I think that for once we are going to see some great looking charts, but alas IMO that the associated uppers will be far too mild and we'll all be sitting scratching our heads wondering what the hell went wrong.

If were now looking at a SSW event to bring cold and it's already mid January, then we might as well give up.eady take The Met Office update for the 15-30 day period has done it for me today, with them hinting at a return to Westerly driven weather. This winter will do down as yet another that was so close, but so far and one where the models all struggled. So much eye candy that never materialized. I already take charts post 192 with a pinch of salt, I think I'll take charts post 144 with as much salt from now on. Winter 2016/2017 is dead as far as snow is concerned. Roll on 2017/2018 which should be much better, as were now in solar minimum, should just get better and better for the next 3 or 4 winters

High pressure linking from Italy in the East right across the Atlantic and joining up to form another High system covering the entire eastern seaboard of the United States. +192 PPN running along the Jet stream and that's about as flat as it gets :-( As with pretty much every single GFS run in the past 2 weeks it shows colder weather (this time in the form of cold zonality) spilling into the UK. If it's not going to be cold then I would rather it stay dry and that's about all one can say about the weather for the foreseeable future.

Some amusing posts today, good to see that we've all kept our sense of humor and perhaps finally this time around we will learn not to get our hopes up when charts show cold solutions..but never really agree. I think if the GFS only went out as far as +240 like the ECM does, then there wouldn't have been such excitement, I've not looked at the charts every day, but from what I did see over the past 2 weeks, I only recall seeing one ECM chart showing a really potent Scandi High and that was a +240 chart as well. Moving forward I still don't see any change coming any time soon, we're STILL stuck in an all too familiar pattern with MLB over the Atlantic, if we're not going to get cold weather, then I would prefer it to be dry, it sure beats last winters filthy conditions. IMO the past few days runs from the GFS are falling more and more in line with the METO 5-14 day update on their web site, which is for colder short lived blasts and milder interludes. Considering that January is generally a wetter month and often very windy, IMO that we may well be in line for one hell of a cold Feb, IF the background signals stay more or less the same. If we do get a SSW towards the later part of this month then....it could be fun. For the time being, it's simply rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat..... once today's rain clears it's Cold and Dry through to +72 (UKMO) By next weekend and not an awful lot changes (ECM +144) I've just seen that the GFS 12z goes off into Fantasy Land once again later in the run, but the general pattern remains the same right through to the end of the run. I just can't see how this overall pattern is going to change, at least for the first half of Jan. It IS, however, far far better than last winter, especially if you like outdoor activities :-) Happy new Year all

I do love this forum, it amazes me that so many of us get caught up in the eye candy that charts POST +144 can sometimes churn out, for me the writing for a decent cold attempt was etched on the wall several days ago and when you find that the charts that are showing a decent cold evolution always move a day further away each day, then you find your always looking at charts between 168-268 (or further out), for a cold evolution. It's clear (at least to me) that after this weekend things are going to warm up slightly as we progress through next week. Then to me it looks like rinse and repeat again, I keep saying that were stuck in this pattern of MLB highs moving South East across the UK at a crawl and heading off into central Europe since just before Christmas the models keep suggesting that one of these highs either links up with Greenland to form some sort of Omega block...Or moves North East into Scandinavia to for a Scandi High. But when it gets to within +168 on the charts we find that the highs simply continue their journey into central Europe and the pattern repeats In fact RIGHT NOW, we're on the back end of one of these scenario's which has played out 4 or 5 times since the beginning of December GOODBYE MLB High...ohh look there's the next one waiting in the wings !! And where does THAT MLB High go ?? UKMO +120 has it to our South, I don't really tend to look into charts at +240 very much these days, but I know many of us do...so lets' look at the GFS Control at +240... GFS CONTROL +240 ..doesn't that look familiar ??? Until I see this pattern disappear completely from the charts I'm not buying into an Easterly or North Easterly. Something will eventually give, but the longer this pattern repeats without being broken up by ridging to the North in some shape or form then it could be the job of the Atlantic...and then we'd likely be back to square one. Sorry...I know it's a bit of a doom and gloom post at a time where the charts are showing promise, but IMO that a chart full of promise is a far cry from a chart that I'm looking at to see WHERE the snow is going to be. Until I get to that point I find it hard to get excited about eye candy ...but it is nice to look at :-) Happy 2017 to you all, let's hope I'm wrong and i'd be only too happy to eat humble pie whilst rolling in a 6 foot snow drift :-)

Very sensible post. I honestly can't understand why everyone is so upbeat this morning, either I'm reading the charts wrong, Or i've woken up miserable or I've woken up in an alternate universe. Gone are the charts that were showing a more sustained colder period and this morning we have woken to see a firming up on the ensemble cluster 06z Leicestershire ensembles It's pretty certain that this weekend we start to get a temporary plunge of colder air, which clears away early next week , but it's becoming clear that next week things are going to warm up slightly although it will still be fairly chilly at the surface and then it's simply a case of rinse repeat, more or less the same pattern we have been stuck in ALL WINTER LONG !! The only difference is that the high pressure systems aren't making as much in roads and are more or less stalling over the UK, this gives the illusion that the doors are opened to a northerly component or a Easterly component coming into play, when in truth and how many times already this winter have we seen this...the systems push off south and east and we get a temporary south westerly feed, before the pattern repeats. I don't claim to understand the background signals, I simply say what I see...and that's what I am seeing. And I'm really getting bored of it...Any chart that shows an omega block or Scandi High dragging in easterly's should only be worth enjoying as eye candy if it's post 168, get it to within a +144 chart and then it's worth having a better look at. We've ALL been led up the garden path countless times, every winter only to be let down and end up chasing the cold again in FI. Things are much better positioned this winter, however, and I DO think we will get a cold spell of weather and that it's not too far away, just not next week !!

It looks like were stuck in the same rut that we have been in ever since December began. High pressure edging in from the West sitting over the UK for a few days as it slowly makes it's way South and East into Central Europe. So we get a few days of cold weather as the high approaches, then we have surface cold and frosty nights, then as the pressure slips south and east the wind direction changes to south easterly and then southerly and finally a south westerly component, we might then get an errant low pressure system sliding over the top, before another high pressure system rolls in slowly from the Atlantic and the whole process repeats. Each cycle seems to take 7-10 days before were back where we started, As an avid runner I'm actually quite happy that the weather is staying predominantly dry, but as a weather enthusiast I really am getting a bit bored of it now. One thing I am noticing though is that each high pressure system seems to make less and less inroads, so if that trend continues perhaps we might end up with a high that stalls well to the west and give an opportunity for something from either the north or east to take hold. But for now, it's a 2 day cold snap at the weekend and then IMO eyes are to the west for another high and we'll see where that one goes...or doesn't as the case might be. If I was looking for a deeper and more sustained chance of cold I would be looking for some time around the 12th Jan (that's just a hunch)

Don't shoot me down for saying this, but I fear there is going to be a lot of disgruntled coldies by the end of the day, the cracks in the potential cold spell are already beginning to appear on this mornings set of runs and I fully expect things to get watered down as the week progresses. Going through the various gfs runs this morning and the form horse is for a return to westerly driven weather post day 10. I would upload some postage stamps but I don't have the time. The models always seem to throw out cold charts over the Christmas period for early January, only for things to get watered down as the data streams increase after the Xmas lull...(well that's my take on it anyway),seems to happen every year. I do hope this is just a blip, but for me the writing is being etched on the wall in pencil this morning, let's hope someone comes and rubs it back off ...else we'll all end up having chased yet another potential cold spell that only ever existed inside a computer model !! And how many times have we been here.

This month I have become really disillusioned with all of the medium to Long Range models and all of the data that is gathered, analysed and interpreted. There was a really bouyant mood in here given that everything seemed to be gunning for a decent cold snap/spell this month and to all intensive purposes if we'd believed what we'd read on the various threads...then we should right now all be enjoying a decent cold spell and the first widespread snow event of the winter. Instead we've been stuck in a no mans land with the Atlantic waiting in the wings to ruin the xmas period with strong winds and heavy rain (Yes I have seen the XMas day 00z gfs run and it does look cold....for a whole day.!!! ...big deal) I really enjoy ready the strat thread...I enjoy reading about the various Wave events...Mountain Torques....Nicks Short Wave fascintation....the list goes on. At the end of the day I really don't think were any closer to knowing what the weather will do post 15 days...than we did 10 or 20 years ago. I'm still going to read the threads and posts with interest, but I really will take it all with a huge pinch of salt, until I see a chart showing cold and snow potential IMBY at +96 then I really am not going to get myself excited about anything. This December there hasn't really been any indication that cold was going to head this way...the only place I've seen any indication that this would happen....has been on this forum. I love you guys and gals dearly...but I think were all chasing shadows and looking further and further out in time to put together pieces if a jigsaw that's not yet been made.

Seems to me that we are about to get stuck into a pattern of High pressure sitting over the UK with low pressure systems squeezing in on both sides of us. here's today's chart here's how it looks for Saturday' And the final frame Rinse, repeat ?? I chose the wrong time of year to get an injury

Been donkeys ears since I posted on here. As always i've been coming here lurking, reading, chart watching, like many others. IMO We're in a much better position moving forward than the past few winters and the 12z run falls quite nicely in line with the Met O update from today, even into the medium range. Small sways either way will indeed make a lot of difference, but we could at the very least be in with a chance of some battleground type set up's, which may or may not be flash in the pan type events, I'd expect to see the ECM at least jump on board with the retrogressed High into the Mid Atlantic, which would at least open the door to a Northerly feed. Thereafter it really is open to debate, as always with the UK we tend to need 2 or 3 bites at the cherry before we get what us coldies want, it's not often we strike lucky at the first time of asking and many of us have already seen more snow this time around than the whole of last winter. Lot's to play for and at least we're not sniffing around in FI just to find a potential hint of cold to come thereafter and it's not even December yet !! Plenty to remain hopeful for if you are looking for cold.

chucking it down in Brighton

Well that's another winter over and what a load of old poo it was. plenty of frosts is about the only positive I can take away from this winter Far too many days where it was 4/5 degree's and raining. For me personally IMBY this was probably the worst winter I have endured weather wise, nothing stood out at all as a noteworthy event, I really can't recall one single day that I found interesting weather wise. I can't see that changing as we go through March, I'm now looking forward to the spring in the hope my calf injury heals and I can at least go running up into the hills.

Hat's off to those of you who still have the energy to look for the next spell of cold weather, I have to admit I have given up all hope. Instead I have taken to trying to find charts that look rude, so I had to post this one, overall picture hasn't really changed, high pressure rules the roost for the lower half of the UK and glancing blows from lows up north.

Is this what they call home grown cold ? What a bleak and boring outlook

Yet another ''Meh, blink and miss it'' event. This Winter has been really pathetic, I can't believe i've been getting all excited about a few pathetic flakes blowing around in the wind. a good month and a bit left to go before I give up, in 2012 I saw 4 foot drifts of snow that lasted for several days and that was in mid March and on the South Coast, so don't believe anyone when they tell you winter is over come the end of Feb. That being said, I'm not holding out any hope we'll see anything now for the remainder of Winter, another one looks like going by without anything of note, bar a 30 minute flurry that I saw at half four one morning.

Dew point here has dropped like a stone from + 1.3 to 0.0 in the space of one hour