EML Network

I agree with some of the others, this seems to be an almost carbon copy of Monday night, only the PPN slightly heavier probably lasting a while longer too. It seems like there's 2 main ''bands'' of showers, one clipping the extreme SE and probably effecting anywhere in a line south and east of Canterbury Ashford, and Hastings. and another band effecting areas in a band effecting anywhere North West of Bongnor, Crawley and Croydon, extending perhaps up to 100 miles north and west of these areas with a band in between that is dry

This should please everyone, coincides with the coldest uppers and strongest winds too. I think Thursday is going to be the day we all see some snow in the SE , would be sods law if it turns out to be rain though

One word can sum up the next 10 days and quite possibly more.. DRY

well, somebody wake me up in a week, I think by the time we get to Sunday we're all going to be looking into FI for another opportunity for snow to find it's way to the UK. I still can't understand how this... isn't being programmed in to produce snow in the SE, you have the right orientation so that the feed is from the North East, the flow is spending enough time to pick up moisture of the North Sea, the squeeze in the isobars should blow showers inland and the uppers are about right to aid convection. And yet there's no mention of it on any forecast , yet the GFS has consistently modeled snow for this day...(overnight Thursday and into Friday) indeed going through the ensembles IMO every single GFS run shows PPN coming into the SE during this time frame ? so what gives ? is it too far out to me given a mention ? anyway, to those that have had snowfall tonight well done, seems to have effected a similar area to those that saw snow on Friday night, As I speak what looks like a thames streamer of sorts is picking up, might just be nothing, but hey h the day is young, the dew points are below freezing across the south east and everywhere else, although as the day wears on it's typical that the Dew points for some (just where I happen to be actually)...go the wrong side of marginal... which is hard to believe looking at the actual pattern we'll see how the day goes, but from next week onward, I think it's going to be one of those weeks where we need to find something else to do with our time, other than spend it looking at weather charts, cos their probably aint gonna be much a happening

sitting on the fence on this one, looking at the radar returns and reading some f the posts in the other regional forums, there seems to be a lot of false radar returns

I don't know why this Winter has felt like a real boring one for weather, even though I have watched a decent 30 minute snow event. IMO this coming week would have been IDEAL for running, but I'm injured and I can't even do that....like others have said, roll on spring, I need to get running up in the hills again week days

Well the 06 z has pulled a Houdini, I'm really struggling to see what it is that is driving the changes in the various outputs. If you were to look at the GFS Op at + 96.... how many of us would have thought an Easterly would show up for the Southern half of England just 24 hours later ? it looks vey dubious to me, but it's nice to see none the less, I wonder if it will have any support from the control run ? What strikes me as really weird is that if you were to look at the UKMO for the same time frame... On the face of it, and if you were asked to put money on which of the two charts lead to an easterly 24 hours later, I would have laid money on it being the UKMO, but where as the UKMO has the High tracking back West, the GFS has it heading East and ends up as a Scandi High. The ECM takes the middle ground and just keeps it over the UK. So we now have a 3 ways split for the end of this coming week onward. 1* UKMO wants the high to retrogress into the mid North Atlantic. 2* The GFS wants the high to take a journey ENE and into Scandinavia 3* The ECM wants the high to stay in situ over the UK. Not sure where I'd put my money, but the middle ground tends to be right and sadly that's the one option I'd rather not see in this situation.

Well I for one am struggling to find encouragement in the outputs this evening, gone are the long drawn easterly's and replacing them is benign high pressure dominated weather that simply straddles the UK and ever so slowly eats all the cold up. then the trend is to end up with a sinking high and a slow painful return to the default, eating up a good chunk of the most important and historically coldest month of the year in the UK, but I think the models need more runs to determine where it goes beyond next week. About the only place that would likely hold on to the snow chances as we go through this week, given the output is the extreme SE, and even here it's a case of squeezing out the spare left overs, it's a bit like watching a mate run out of money on a Saturday night and seeing him drink the leftovers of other people's pints. The only positives I can see is that the High to our West is progressively being computed to be ever so slightly further north on each run across the models and if that trend continues I would expect to see the models throw out various options for next weekend, I'll explain below where I think things might go if things go favorably looking at + 144 we have the GFS, which looks good for snow chances for those in the SE but looks dry everywhere else. the GFS Control run is almost a carbon copy, snow chances on this limited to the very far south and east on the UKMO the high is much further West and not as far North, snow chances at this juncture are reserved fr an even smaller tip of the SE, hard to know where it would go from here, the high could sink with a NW feed going over the top, or Low pressure could sink from Iceland and reload with another toppler, a NW feed looks most likely.. Finally the ECM , the snow chances here would be greater if you was on a very long pier in the extreme south east...or on a boat just off shore. So each model above has the High to our West in slightly different positions , but the main theme at this juncture is broadly similar, even though each model takes a slightly different evolution to get there. where it goes from there is very much dependent upon where that high pressure goes, to my untrained eye another toppler looks more likely than not and then perhaps that might open the door to a real cold blast from the North East , it's something some of the GFS runs are hinting at, for example... Run 1 leads onto this... Run 4 takes it's time but leads onto this... run 7 Of course there's all sorts of options available, I just hope we don't end up with a long drawn out and dry end to things, with a slow gradual warming up like the GFS Op is showing as that would just be plain boring away from the SE...from an IMBY perspective I'm hoping to see something white falling out of the sky before the week is out, just hoping it's not another darn seagull

what's going on with the UKMO ?? + 96 and it looks completely different to the GFS GFS ...

TBH I don't think is was forecast to snow today in any case in the SE, so any snow that did fall was a bit of a Brucy Bonus. It's not until overnight (some time around 3 am) when the next batch is supposed to be feeding down from the North West (similar to last night in fact), however I'm not convinced it will happen. By the time we get to midnight those Dew points should be down to and below zero for us all >> Only problem is that same thing happens tomorrow that has happened today and those Dew Points look set to rise above freezing during the day time tomorrow. It's once we get to Monday and through the week that we stand the best chance of seeing snowfall that wouldn't melt after it's fallen.

Well the 2 times I have seen snow this Winter, it came at times when it was NOT forecast, BBC went and ruined it now by saying we might get snow overnight. OHH WELL there's always next week ..lol

and after all the rain melted the snow earlier and everything is wet....it's decided to start snowing again. Tempted to take a long walk up to the Devils dyke * edit...and now it's raining again..lol

It's absolutely chucking it down.... sadly it's all rain

Dew point annoyingly ha crept up to 0.5 here, temperature hovering at 1.3. this lot will be all rain unless the dew point suddenly takes a dive, which I can't see happening. still it was nice to see snow falling. not complaining as it's snowed twice here this month and neither time it was expected. who knows what the coming week will bring

well I can still see snow on my neighbors roof across the road, it's too cold and i'm too cosey laying in my bed to get up and look out of the window, although the snow is melting slowly off the roof. so the roof will be my guide to whether it's raining or snowing outside :-)

Ohhhh, so close, it's sleeting here now, the snow we had earlier ever so gradually disappearing :-(

Definately an 8/10 really heavy snow and huge flakes the sort of flakes where you can fix one one and watch it fall right from our third floor all the way to the ground. great stuff , and once again unexpected.

WOW reallt chucking it down, have never seen snow settle so quickly either and turn everything white. woo-hooo

IT'S SNOWING :-)

well the PPN should be here any minute, can't believe that I might just be on the right side or marginal for once, Dew Point holding at a steady -0.6 temperature still at 0.7 , guess I should get out of bed then

I'm still doubtful it will snow here 1 mile in from the coast ! Dew point holding at -0.7 temperature 0.6 , has been that all night

P.S a free chart showing where the rain is, where the sleet, snow is, not sure how accurate it is though |http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/Home/?type=rain-snow-sleet

I just know that any time now this PPN is going to start breaking up and fizzle out, would be sods law

I think it's going to be rain by the time it reaches here, dew point is only -0.7 , temperature +0.8 that's under clear skies, once again IMO i'm gonna be wrong side of marginal, we'll see , might even fizzle out before it gets here

5.2 I just can't see the cold holding out past mid month