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Well this has to go down as the biggest let down ever for down here. A whole week spent getting excited for absolutely nothing. Ive seen more 'white' on the ground on a frosty October morning than I hsve on the ground here and I cant see anything more coming this way going by the radar return. Whoever does get snow though is going to be able to enjoy it for the next week at least. I wont be radar watching tonight as theres no point, aint nothing coming this way. GFS has consistently modelled Tuesday as being a day of potential here so I think thats the next day of opportunity, even a 10 minute heavy snow shower would give me more than I have now so ill see what happens then...after which it will be looking to see what happens with the LP on Friday from off the Atlantic. A week full of potential, but tbh thats all it ever is down this way, potentials that never materialize.
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Lmfao what a let down so far. All the PPN seems to magically vanish about 15 miles North of my location on the radar, but looking at dew points mothing would be settling in any case. Guess it will be a day of radar watching but im not hopefull. If we miss out AGAIN from this I think i'll hang my hat up as a snow lover and just become a sun worshiper instead.
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
EML Network replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
now that's what you call East Meets West and on this run (Control) East is winning, absolutely the best period of model watching i've ever seen in 12 years of model watching. -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
EML Network replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And if this verifys look at the atlantic, there's absolutely nothing coming our way from there, that's cold locked in for a long while. -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
EML Network replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is like model watching heaven, first we have tomorrows snow event - then we have the possibility of a channel low effecting the south coast mid week and THEN we have the distinct possibility that what were seeing this week could just be the appetiser before the main event and a real Beast from the Beast courtesy of a Scandi High. I recall seeing someone post mid week about how a southerly jet stream can often lead to the formation of a scandi high I think winter 2020/2021 will be one that we refer back to in the years to come, much like we do with 1987and 2010 ICON 4am Wed morning. Associated uppers That would be a very close call, JUST about OK for Snow but any further north and that would probably be rain on the coastline. And the GEM then throws this at us, now THIS is what a Beast from the East looks like !! -
South Coast left out of the warning area ...yup that would be about right then Will probably see a few flakes that took a wrong turn then if that's anything to go by or perhaps it's the dew points and they don't think the snow is going to settle anywhere south of the South Downs. plenty of Time for the warnings to be updated though.
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HAHAHA Yup, base layer, vest and standard running top, then i've got my waterproof and windproof jacket No 1 and another waterproof and windproof jacket on top of that. A buff for my neck, 2 pairs of gloves, knee length socks, plus my trail shoes and calf guards. Nice warm hat and another on my hydration vest just to be safe, running boxers, running shorts and thermal leggings and i'll carry windproof and waterproof lightweight running trousers in my hydration vest just to be safe. It's a lot of weight to have on your person for running, but I'm working my way up to running the Mont Blanc Mountain marathon in a few years time, plus Snowdonia Marathon this year and Lake district ''5 Passes'' Ultra and the Ring of Hell Ultra marathon and the shropshire way 80km race this year....so it's all good training. If anything I might actually be too hot and have to unzip layers hahaha We'll see how it unfolds, I might opt to stay a little closer to home if its really really bad out there.
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Hey...I'm hopeful but as you can imagine; given how hard it is for us to get snow down here even when a few miles inland gets buried...im just trying to keep my hopes realistic. Best we can hope I think is that a Thames streamer sets up and that is a definite possibility, so we could get really lucky. I think we will see snow falling but not massive amounts, I'll be running up around Ditchling Beacon and Devils Dyke on Sunday anyway as I want to make the best of it and go to where the snow will be deepest Just hoping I don't freeze to death lmfao you guys tend to fare better over there than we do here generally, you seem to be just that bit further East and it seems to make a bit of difference for some reason. It will probably come down to looking at the radar and hoping
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Trying hard NOT to get excited down here (erm that sounds very wrong !!!) But over the last 24 hours at least for us snow starved south Central / South East coasters it is looking more and more promising with each passing run that we MIGHT see some snow over Sunday and Monday and possibilities right through until Wednesday. The issue with a warm sector seems to have lessened over the last 3 or 4 runs it's still there but it looks like the warmer uppers have been mixed out and replaced by uppers easily supportive of snowfall now. Control run shows this quite nicely. Wedge of ''warmer'' uppers is still there even on Monday morning, but it's around -3/-4 as opposed to the close to 0 it was showing this time yesterday, but it's plenty cold enough given the direction of travel. I'm not expecting to see all that much falling from the Sky here on Sunday, but no doubt others further North, such as Kent, North Surrey, London, Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk in particular, well you guys look like on Sunday at least you might be buried and im happy for you. seems like you've been almost as unlucky as we have down here on the coast over the last 4 or 5 years. My eyes are now being drawn to Tuesday as there is a staggering number of runs that have a quite localised area of PPN forming around Kent, Sussex, Surrey some of this is as a result of the low heading through North France and others show this as a feed from the east, but it seems we might be lucky here and whichever direction this comes from...east or west anything that does fall out of the sky would probably be snow...so going to show the various runs picking up on this from the 00z GFS from around the 96-120 timeframe, but because there are soooo many I'm literally just using the runs going up to run No 10 else i'll be here all day. Anything beyond 120 is too far away given the current set up tbh regardless of what it's showing so I'm not going to include anything post 120. Control (+120) Run 2 (+120) Run 3 (+108) Run 4 (+108) Run 5 (+114) Run 7 (+108) Run 8 (+96) Run 9 (+108) So from the first 10 runs + the control run I.e 11 runs that I've looked at 8 of them are showing this feature which is statistically significant and it's in the relatively reliable timeframe as well so if any of you do miss out on Sunday there looks like being another bite at the cherry at least for us south of London on Tuesday.