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That's it, I've seen enough, Winter is over I really can't be bothered any more. I'm done with chart watching it's just pointless

Going through the various GFS runs and it's all getting very messy by next weekend, I really think we should ignore anything past then, a few examples showing just what a mess the output is, going to be some time before things firm up IMO. That's just a few cherry picked charts. There doesn't seem to be much support that follow the ECM route with HP to our South and the Jet stream running straight across the UK as if there's been no SSW what so ever, there's a few, this one for example, so that outcome can't be discounted. General consensus seems to be that High Pressure will come into play next weekend, it may stall out to our West it may dive south, it may pass through and to the East, or it may sit over the top of us. If I had to place a bet i'd go for the later, what happens beyond that...?? I don't think anyone can say with any degree of certainty, I was giving up hope completely of seeing a decent cold spell this winter that produces the goods, but after seeing today's set of ensembles I'm beginning to wonder if winter might just arrive in the nick of time.

If that verifys I think we all might as well pack up and go home.

Pendulum is swinging in favour of the ECM this morning it would seem. Both the GFS ensembles, UKMO are both in broad agreement. If were going to get a decent cold spell IMO its not going to happen within the next 7 days.

So we could potentially be waiting until well into March based on what you are saying ??, too many if's and but's and could's and maybe's for my liking. So would you say that the Easterly that the GFS has been churning out deep into FI over the past few days is unrelated to the SSW ? or is it like you say a first response ? If it's NOT related I wonder what effect a SSW would have on a Scandi high that is already in Situ when the effects are being felt on the ground as it were ? are there any instances when this has happened in the past I wonder ?

Winter is over...nit that it ever really started down here. At least the sun is shining the past 4 days and it feels like winter. But lets face it a UK wide cold spell with memorable snow just isnt gonna happen for the vast majority of us. Roll on Spring...this is going to be my last post this "winter" 2017/2018 the 5th snowless winter in a row IMBY. Charts are as useful as the preverbial chocolate teapot along with every single "long range forecast" i have seen this winter and i include medium term in that as well. Seems that despite all the data and all the sciene nobody really has a scooby doo. Either that or global weather patterns really are being manipulated by mankind...in which case we.might just as well all give up and find another hobby/interest. Bye bye

If there was a forum dedicated to the strangest things that people do I think lamp post watching would win hands down...I can imagine the TV interviews... Interviewer... So..Mr(s) Smith...Tell us what you do.. Interviewee...Well I rearranged my room so that if I lay down in my bed and open the curtains I can see the lamp post. Interviewer....riggghhhhttttt..and then what do you do ? Interviewee...I.look at it... Interviewer ...but why do you look at it?? Interviewee....to see if its snowing. ??????

If someone just happenee ti stumble on that post and didnt know this was a weather forum...theyd be calling the men in the white coats... Hillarious :-)

lol I just don't like seeing people getting excited only to feel let down when nothing arrives, in my experience if you don't expect anything and then you get it, it's much more enjoyable than constantly hoping and being let down. I think i've just become hardened over the years.

just back from a 10k road race in Chichester, isn't really feeling all that cold tbh ,even the wind didn't feel all that cold. Mind you nothing really does when you run 10k in sub 40 minutes !! Back home and it was unbroken sunshine the whole way, a gorgeous day and really nowhere near as cold as I thought it would be. Just to add, if anyone thinks they're getting anything more than a sprinkling by this time tomorrow, I suspect they'll be disappointed, just can't see anything more than a scattering of showers and I doubt any accumulations will even be visible asides from on cars and dustbin lids :-) Hope Im wrong

Hi Marie, I seriously doubt us here in Brighton are going to get any of the white stuff, (really want to make a lewd joke about Dukes Mound there but I shall refrain). I don't know, we might see the odd errant flake blowing like a lonely feather in the wind, but I doubt we'll really see all that much, might be better over towards Eastbourne, Hastings and even there it may mostly be wet snow or just plain old rain. It's all a bit ''Meh'' really. hope im wrong, we'll soon find out .

Yeah 5 kids actually playing outside and not stuck indoors with their heads buried in a phone

I think the only places in the SE that are going to get any measurable snow from this might be Folkstone, it looks pretty dry everywhere else and even Tuesdays front dies a death before it gets to us. Sadly i've seen this happen over and over and over again, if the SE wants snow it NEEDS either channel low or a long fetch easterly with tightly packed isobars or a North easterly again with uppers low enough to aid convection or tight isobars. We might see a few errant flakes, but other than that it just looks crisp and cold. And tbh it doesn't really look all that cold at the surface either, the way some people in the MOD thread are talking you'd think we're all about ti get buried in 10 feet of snow and have sub 0 temperatures for the next 2 months.

I'd like to get excited about next weeks prospects, but until I actually see snow falling and settling on the ground ...I wont. Too many let downs, too many close calls and tbh unless it's a North Easterly feed with tightly packed isobars and a Minus 10 upper then down here we might as well forget it...or channel low hitting cold entrenched air.

I guess it's all relative to where one lives, I almost got excited about the coming weeks charts, because for the first time in 5 years it had a nice big pink slice of marmalade (snowfall) over my area for 2 days (Monday and Tuesday next week), however I see on this latest run 12z ...it's gone ....lmfao Tbh even if it did snow here the Sea Surface Temperatures and salt air quickly melt any laying snow. The past 5 winters in a row have been absolute pig shite for us on the South Coast, I do a lot of running and did 16 miles in the hills on Sunday and I've never known it to be so damn muddy, it was more a dance through the mud than an actual run. And that was wearing trail shoes with spikes !! sliipping and sliding all over the shop. Yup I've given up on seeing any snowfall down here this Winter, despite what any chart throws out. just aint gonna happen

I have to admit that I agree, I'm fast loosing my interest in Winters all together tbh. This Winter has without a shadow of a doubt been the most irritating, wet, cold, windy, damp, grey awful Winter I think I can ever remember. I really don't think that IMBY i'll ever see snow falling and settling ever again (5 years now since i've seen any snow) and I really do enjoy the sun and the warmth of summer. So I'm with you, let's just scrap Winter, get it out of the way with and look forward to the summer. This winter really has killed my love affair with Winter off....

Quite possibly one of the most balanced and sensible posts on here this week. What has also remained consistent throughout the various model runs is thst deep cold is never too far away to our east and like you say it may or may not encompass the UK but Europe in general is soon to head into the freexer fir the first time this Winter...its been remarkably mild for the most part thus far for the majority of mainland Europe this winter.

Anyhow here we are with this afternoon's run and it's as you were with the most likely areas to get snow from this slider, notice how the areas likely to be effected are a thin wedge

The same posters on here always trying to see what they want to and hopecast. I have to chuckle when I see so much attention on one LP system, of course it's path is going to be modelled differently from run to run and I understand why so many people are interested, but the path is more or less clear..this will move pretty much straight across the UK from NE to SE cutting a thin sausage shaped wedge, Snow more likely from Wales in the West drawing a line to Lincoln in the East and anywhere North of that is in the firing line. Those like me in the South really aren't going to get much out of this from Sunday onwards...those in the South and South West...your best chances of seeing snow is prior to Sunday, with Friday being your best opportunity and this has been consistently modelled for some time now. If you like cold zonality and lots of rain then you're in for a treat next week, I really can't see how anyone see's it any differently ? As it usual from cold Zonality, N.Ireland, Scotland or NW England coastal areas are where you want to be. If you want a UK wide snow event then you need an Easterly or a North Easterly and until that happens the majority of us on here are going to be in for a let down...personally I can't stand nothing worse than cold, strong winds and rain...and that's what most of us are going to see from this set up AFTER the weekend. So enjoy what is to come from Thursday through until Monday IMO, but by all means feel fee to see what you want to and ignore what is actually being modelled

Good post TEITS... I think those of us who have been on this forum for many years tend to take a back seat and enjoy reading the trials and tribulations of what the winter charts churn out on here. The more balanced and experienced of us could clearly see that the evidence has always been for a dry but potent cold blast for a few days with the usual places seeimg snowfall from such set ups. I dont post on here so much now as I feel ive seen it all before and its more fun to just read peoples thoughts. All the evidence does suggest a.return to a.more mobile pattern in the last 1/3 of Dec....although thats far from certain as as METO suggests a slow process. I think the general concensuss is that January hangs in the balance with all eyes looking to see if we can pull off a SSW event at the turn of the year(ish). Overal though a far more interestimg start to winter than weve had for a long long time.

I think we might as well give up Dan. Ive never seen the models strugglw so much...i have a race in Brighton on Sunday morning at 9am and for the past 4 days have been looking at the charts with that one timeframe in mind and every single run and day its flipping wildly...its only 5 days away now and im still none the wiser as to what conditions ill be running in. If the NH has a split as.modelled above and the UK gets mild southerlys then I really will give up on ever seeing a cold winter in the UK alltogether and wont bother with any of the things we all look towards as pointing towards a cold outbreak because none of them.will have ended up makin the slightest bit of difference

Well it was just a matter of time before we saw charts such as the 12z GFS run today, you know when a cold spell is more likely than not when things start ''upgrading'' closer to the time frame, rather than the other way around, i guess it's more a firming up. I recall saying earlier this week that I preferred the GFS evolution as opposed to the ECM as it kept us in the game as today's 12z GFS run highlights that perfectly, with just about anywhere having a chance of some pre Winter snowfall IF IT CAME OFF as modelled. Lets not forget that we're still in Autumn here !! The timestamp above is post 200+ so needless to say taken with a lorry load of salt, however, it's a chart loaded with possibilities and pretty much all of them favour some form of cold evolution thereafter. Things are shaping up quite nicely and I can't recall when we last had a cold November and it would be interesting to see some sort of analog showing winters that followed a cold November and how they panned out. Great charts over the past few days and everything I am seeing bares all the hallmarks of a solid and dare I say even prolonged cold spell looming

well it's nice to finally be back here after having been away for over a year I think. Things really do seem to be shaping up for a far more interesting winter than we've had in a long while and it's no surprise to me at least that this is coinciding with a decline in sunspot activity. Anyhow, thought I would throw my pennies worth in re the ECM.. If that rolled on I don't think many of us would be best pleased, the High to our East would sink and the winds would swing around to a direct southerly and the low to our South West would roll over the high and reset the Atlantic. It's easy to look at charts and imagine what you want to see evolving, but you can't always do that you have to look at the frames previous to see the likely evolution. It's an interesting end to the ECM, but I prefer the GFS evolution as it keeps us in the game. Still it's all way too far out to invest any thoughts into, if there's one thing I've learn't over the past decade on this site, it's that when it comes to winter you really can't get yourself excited about anything beyond 144 ..well you can if you want to, but be prepared to be let down more often than not. great to be back with something worth discussing for once

im lost for words...ive never seen anything like this before in the uk. hail...constant lightning..thunder..heavy rain...have taken a tonne of video's..i think its gradually passing north of here now...what a great show

constant thunder and lightning every few seconds were in for a.direct hit here 20170719_001113.mp4