EML Network

Yup I went through all the GFS runs this morning as I had a bit of spare time and most of them had a push of warmer air over quite a large chunk of the South East which would be warm enough to turn any precipitation to rain in the areas the LP covers. it would only need a teeny tiny shift south though of these pesky Low pressure so it stays centred over France and doesn't encroach here, but if anything the various runs are bringing these into play more. These are the runs from the GFS 06z that would POTENTIALLY ruin any chances of seeing snow falling in the areas the low pressure covers, ESPECIALLY so down here and sadly there is quite a lot of them showing this at some point or another over Sunday and into Monday. RUN 1 + Uppers Run 5 + Uppers Run 10 + Uppers Run 13 + Uppers Run 14 + Uppers Run 16 + Uppers Run 20 + Uppers Run 21 + Uppers Run 27 + Uppers Run 30 That's far too many runs for my liking, in fact it's exactly 1/3 of them.

I'm not expecting diddly squat along the South Coast, it will rain here like it ALWAYS does and a few miles inland will get a pasting of snow. Just as well I'm a ultra marathon runner though, because if the snow won't come to me My legs will take me to it :-) elevation I think will be important along the coast here, South Downs should do fine, but a wet mushy mix of sleet and wet snow on the immediate cost line IMO. East Anglia, London, Essex, North Kent, Mid sussex, Surrey all look primed for a good steamy dump of the lovely white stuff though

ECM 06Z Snippet at T+72 (apologies if already posted) GFS for same timeframe for comparison Not really sure anything can be gleamed from that other than it looks like the North Atlantic LP is further north on the ECM ?

WOW talk about a trip down memory lane, i'm going through the archives now, fascinating to read some of the posts and comments and tbh (myself included) we have become such a hardy bunch since then. Have I really been a member on here for over 10 years !!!! where did the time go !!!!

Theres a reason house prices are cheaper... I also like having an internet connection see and not having to travel 657 miles to get a loaf of bread whilst running the risk of either being mugged by some local scag head who is 'at it' or get hit by a drunk driver on a shortbread come down, or have to endure some random shop keeper talking 'pish' at me because im the only living thing he has seen in the last week asides from Oscar the sheep. But it is a good place to get snow Ill just get my 4 kids, wife and dog and tell them were upping sticks and they all have to start new lifes...because daddy wants to enjoy the snow. Not quite as easy as simply just moving house when your a grown up son ! One day if youre lucky you might find out

It's like the entire country all winning the lottery and sending us pictures every hour of how much fun they are having, whilst were in isolation in a Max security prison trying to explain to Bob the Axe murdering scitzo paranoid delusional drug addict on a heroin come down in the same cell were in that we are simply another human sharing the same cell.

If I miss out down here yet again and have a completely snowless winter...AGAIN...I'm going to slice Scotland so it becomes an Island and drifts off to Iceland, cryogenically freeze myself for a few 100,00 years and hopefully by then what remains of England will have drifted north to be where Scotland is now and then maybe, just maybe I might see snowflake one day !! if the ECM plays out, it will be one rain storm after another after another down here, to go with the several trillion gallons per square nanometre per millisecond for the last 2 months non stop that we've already had to endure this winter so far. Ahhh that feels better

Writings on the wall now yet again for our region if snow is what you are looking for. And to make it worse the same areas that have already seen huge amounts of snow this year look set to get more, whilst us here on the South Coast have to endure the very worst weather of all....cold, wet, damp miserableness. Winter 2020/2021 has been the worst in my entire life for weather. Roll on spring and summer im done with "winter" ...I mean a very long autumn

Just looking at the FAX chart update to see if that can give us any indication as to how this might play out. T+84 Centre of Low just off N.Wales GFS + 84 for comparison GFS has the centre of the LP ever so slightly closer to Ireland and a Tad further South, but tbh the differences are so slight so no real conclusion I think can be drawn yet by the FAX update. The ECM, however has this Low much further East than both the UKMO and GFS at T+84 so for me when the 06Z GFS run comes out I'll be looking to see how much Eastward movement this initial low makes before it sinks South as an indicator as to how it might unfold thereafter. You can also see by the Orientation of the Low pressure system, in the GFS it's like a fist poking up through the UK, where as the ECM it's more like an egg falling backwards towards Ireland and when you look at it in that way you can almost imagine it like an egg being forced to topple and crush as the High Pressure above it sinks south forcing the Jet south with it and not allowing the LP across France to find it's way North to sit over the UK A'la GFS style

Well well well take your pick tonight folks, all roads lead to cold and snow....enjoy it whilst it lasts which will hopefully be right up to T+0 it's such a joy to see the 3 main charts more or less converging at T+144 and that moving forwards would give much of the UK an absolute snowfest, yes there are differences but even the middle ground between all 3 evolutions would deliver UKMO +144 GFS + 144 ECM + 144 If covid wasn't happening I'd open up a big club and throw a gigantic snow themed club night tonight, regardless of what actually happens at T+144 because tonight my friends for one night at least we can all sleep and dream of frolics in the snow xxx

GFS 12Z Mean for T+96 looks good to me, tbh that's about as far out as we can go for now, it looks very much like the GFS has simply continued on the same theme is has been churning out for days on end now, bar the 06z from this morning. going through the various runs at T96 though there are still a fair few runs that have the low filling up and stalling over the north of the UK and I think it's going to be another 24 hours until we can really know how that low is going to interact. BUT it is very good news to see both the GFS OP and UKMO in broad agreement over the placing of the low at T+120 and the control run of the GFS looks to be headed in the same direction, a big step in the right direction for a countrywide snow event.

This is always how a potential cold spell in a computer model doesnt come to fruition. Tell tale signs of a watered down version of what could have been often shows up in the ensembles, first as a few 'errant' runs, then you see more and more runs showing a less cold solution and before you know it you are back looking at 240+ for the next opportunity. Until the 12z runs come out later Id say were at that initial stage where certainly more than a few 'errant' runs are showing us how anyone south of scotland could once again miss out. The 12z will I think go one of two ways and will probably tell us which way this is likely to unfold as regards to the weekend. It will either step away from what it was showing (as it has done this morning) or it will step back. Tbh in this sitation a middle ground between the lovely cold and snowy charts it has been churning out for the last few days and what its showing now wont cut the mustard.

It's been such fun watching the models slowly converge into the broader synoptic pattern over the last 5 or 6 days regarding next week(ends) potential cold and potentially snowy spell. The way I see it is that there is a 2 pronged attack that could give large swathes of the country a memorable snow event, but equally as likely is that we end up with cold but no snow to go with it, away from East facing coasts. The first ''attack'' comes from the south and the GFS has been really consistent with this, it comes from the Low moving NE to end up centred through France after first having gone through Spain , which then flattens and that it what keeps aloft the high pressure above it allowing several days of cold and snowy potential. GFS 120 (centre of the 2 lows over Spain at this stage) GFS 162 LP moving North bumps into the HP above, isobars tighten GFS 162 > Resulting snowfall = jackpot for many who have seen nowt so far this winter (myself included) However with the GFS solution it really is on a knife edge for many across the snow starved south east with milder uppers really not all the far away, if that Low was to shift a few 100 miles further north then it could potentially be the biggest let down of a winter full of let downs for this part of the country The GFS has been uncannily consistent with bringing this feature into play and giving a huge dumping of snow for a good 48 hours on and off throughout Sunday and Monday next week. The ECM after taking baby steps towards the GFS evolution, this morning half heartedly sort of joins the party all be it at a later stage and with the ECM evolution once again it's all fine margins at + 144 with the ECM that initial low won't drop and instead takes up residence over southern half the UK BUT for the first time since this projected cold spell has been picked up it follows the same pattern as the GFS and flattens the Low , the difference here being that the High pressure aloft is far slacker and so there is no push or squeeze in the isobars , but what im liking bout the ECM this morning is that low in the Atlantic, that has got slider written all over it !! and this is where I see a POTENTIAL 2nd attack On this run the Low sitting out in the Atlantic pushes up against the block as opposed to sliding under. But that's very very close to a slider and it really wouldn't take much of an adjustment. I'm really not sure what to make of the UKMO at 144, it's a bit of a half way house one thing that does worry me on the UKMO is just how much closer that Atlantic Low pressure is compared to where it is on the GFS and ECM at the same timeframe and it's orientation, it could come and ruin the party before it's even started but it could join the party and make it into a truly memorable event. I think there is reason to be cautiously optimistic today, but not overly so. until the phasing of the low pressure systems initially come to within 72 hours on the charts small movements, filling, stalling can make or break the outcome. for the Midlands though you guys look like you are having the best winter ever constantly seem to be in that sweet spot and as for Scotland you guys are just like ''what's the weather like out there, I can't see out of my window because of all the snow'' 06z rolling out soon, should just be a variation on a theme with any luck and if it is, then we're a little baby step closer.

It would snow on the sun before it snowed down here. I give up, if we couldn't get snowfall with minus 5 uppers and a thames streamer with a north east feed then we are probably never going to see snow down here in this SE corner ever again.

Well said. I had to laugh when I saw the 12z GFS Op run today and I really feel for all the relative newbies on here, the last few weeks output really has been a game of cat and mouse, I can imagine there a tonnes of cold and snow fans literally banging their heads against the wall, tearing out hair, crying into their coffee and jumping out and down with jubilation all at some point this week alone. On Monday we were hearing shouts of ''A cold spell is nailed'' followed yesterday and this morning by ''Ohh well there's always Feb'' and now it seems the were somewhere in between...the likely outcome ??? ...as per usual in the UK when we get a cold spell with a hint of Atlantic....is somewhere in between. It's always been the case of when we are looking at a cold spell with an Atlantic influence then a large amount of luck is indeed needed to see any meaningfull amounts of snow falling from the sky, especially so in the south. Uppers generally tend to get mixed out as pressure systems fill and stall becoming slow moving as it pushes against a block, when there is one. from my years of model watching I only get excited when a true beast from the east is practically on our doorstep and even then as was the case recently it's not a guarantee. UKMO doesn't appear to me that it has any interest in producing a cold spell the +144 chart, all i'm seeing there is a conveyer belt of High pressure to our south and low pressure systems barrelling through the country across the top of it. No doubt there will be many more twists and turns in the days and weeks ahead and here's hoping you all get to see some snowfall over the next few weeks and months.

3 years since I last posted on here, goes to show how long it's been since there's been something exciting in the charts during winter. Hi All, really enjoyed snowkings informative post. It also helps explain why when I was out running along the South Downs on Sunday with air temperatures of 11 degree's we had a squall line come through and all of a sudden the rain had some sleetyness mixed in with it and the air temperature simply plummeted to the point where my face felt like it had been stabbed with an ice pick. Great to be back on here after so long away

NOR did I stand underneath a shower head that has a beam of light coming out of it....ohh I do love to drink whisky by the seaside

Just had a light shower in hove...obviously I mean of snow...I didnt have a shower with a load of.lights :-)

Seems we got lucky down here in Hove...again :-)

Some of the heaviest snow Ive ever seen falling for hours down here and none of it is settling...i feel as sick as a parrot...we would have had a foot by now if it has settled....so dissapointed

Remarkably this is backed up by the ECM, the control run, several ensembles AND the JMA for around the same timeframe.

Snow here has got heavier but the dew points have also risen at the same time...roads are now clear and wet as are car roofs. Still its nice to see snow falling from the sky and have snow on the ground for a 5th day in a row

Snoowing here in Hove...thin dusting of everything again...looks like it will be over in a jiffy judging by radar. I think thats winters farewell leaving present..back to mild and wet here as early as tomorrow. Looking forward to warmer and hopefully drier weather...had my fill of cold and snow. Got a feeling winter 2018/2019 is going to be a special one...altho to be fair those in the SW, NE, West Scotland, Wales and Ireland have had an event that will be spoken about for years. May e next winter will be our turn

Ok...now its snowijg...wohoo

There's "something" falling out of the sky with a few flakes mixed in...not really sure what it is...ice snizzle ?? Like grains of sugar but heavier ...very odd