EML Network

Iceland has done a runner and no surprize with a central pressure of 910mb

The Control run on this mornings 06 GFS run can only be described as SCROOGE. Total zonality showing for XMas day, that's about as zonal as it gets :-(

I can't really add to what has already been said this morning. The conveyor belt of High pressure systems being transported across the Atlantic, over the Azores and into Central Europe remains in force today. The far NW of Scotland and N.Ireland are likely to experience some very windy days ahead in the coming weeks leading up to the big day itself and looking at the precipitation ensembles there's likely to be a lot more wet weather around then there has been of late for most of us. If we do see a change before the month is out I think it's likely to come from a secondary low pressure system forming on it's journey across the Mid North Atlantic spawning at short notice and spinning into central europe, (trhis is assuming that there would already be another deeper and more amplified pressure system ahead of it...hence the secondary low being forced further to the south)...and then displacing (at least for a time) the resident Euro High, leaving a window of opportunity for things to change. The big question would then be if it does indeed change and to what, OR it might just reset and we carry on where we left off. That's my take on things as the most likely route out of this droll mild mush as it stands.

3 weeks of the frist month of winter remains and as much as I like to be a glass half full kinda guy I'm really struggling to find any way out of this current set up. Each time we get a tiny window of opportunity and High pressure looses it's influence on te charts. another one rolls in to take it's place. It's like autumn but reversed...I.E instead of the UK being battered by a series of low pressure systems, it appears that the UK is being bombarded by a series of High pressure systems rolling in off the Atlantic, setting up shop to the South East , deciding to go somewhere else and then it's replaced by another. Yes things do look to become quite mobile in the North but for the sake of argument let's look at the opening GFS frame And now the final frame There's obviously a fair amount going on in between but the overal pattern hasn't changed , hence my initial statment that I really cannot see a way out of this, even on the final frame an Azores high is ready waiting in the wings ready to pounce and so the blandness of the first month of Winter 2013/2014 continues tonight :-( Surely something has to give soon ?? On a side note it's been remarkably dry IMBY since June, asides from a 2 week period between mid and late October

Even the ECM is getting fed up with the never ending droll pattern of nothingness and kisses goodbye to it by giving it the finger

Yeah you are indeed correct But you get the idea, it certainly looks like it's running into or close to the equatorial regions of the Northern Hemisphere so not a million miles from spilling over into the S.Hemisphere. Which is impressive no matter how pinikity one wants to be about it

Look at the extent of that High Pressure system to our south. it's HUGE from the middle of the Atlantic right the way through Russia and beyond in the SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE !! I can't see a way out of that set up this side of 2013.

Well regradless of the zonal question, All I can see from start to end of the last few days runs is more of the same boring nothingness that we have experienced over the past week or so. The UK either directly under High Pressure, or High Pressure sitting to our South or South East , with everything either running over the top or stalling out to the west an interesting 48 hours coming up but there after it's anything but interesting. Since mid June the weather in the UK really has been non descript and really boring in terms of anything extreme....global warming ??? more like global BORING.

I seem unable to log in from home, I can log in from work but I can't even click ''log in'' from home...it appears none clickable when I hover over the ''login'' icon ...i.e hovering over it and clicking does naff all ??

It's looking a bit breezy up North on Thursday !!

This is going to end up being a 36 hour cold snap if the 12z is anything to go by Starting point dependent upon location is sometime around Thursday lunch time | late afternoon LESS than 36 hours later in fact, the cold air already mixing out... Not even a flash in the pan , in fact not even noteworthy, anyone that did get snowfall form THIS RUN, would wake up Saturday morning and find it all gone.

I can understand why those along NE facing coasts, NW Facing coasts and Scotland are getting excited about the snow prospects for 6-9 days time, but I struggle to see why anyone else other than those who live on elevated areas in lets say N .Wales and Midlands ...are getting excited. I have not really seen a single run that would give the VAST majority of us anything decent in terms of snowfall. It's well known that a direct northerly or NNW feed creates a wish bone effect and snow showers simply run along the West and East coasts and tend not to penetrate very far inland. Although it's a slightly IMBY I'm still looking into Mid December and hoping something shows up that would provide a decent spell of cold weather that would deliver most of us snow and not just the usual places that always get it regardless of what direction it comes in (I.E Scotland , the NE and NW Facing coasts). Here's a good example shown by Netweather's Own charts .. I don't understand why so many people seem to think that somehow on the day itself things will somehow change and (for example) someone living in the South East gets disappointed; when they don't get any snowfall. feel free to delete this post it's it's not model related enough, It's just that every year people fall into the same trap, get their hopes up and then feel let down when they don't get snow. 80% of us will not see snow falling from the sky by next Monday from this sort of set up

Ohh dear :-(

Now that's what you call a ..''cup half full'' kind of a post. Running through the Ensembles it's clear that most of them have High pressure holding firm either over or to the south of the UK, and the lows simply run over the top of us. it's unclear how things would progress from the UKMO as it doesn't go out far enough for anyone to say one way or another. For me the JMA just about sums it up, too close to call and can go either way at this juncture. But I very much doubt either the GFS or the ECM have this modeled correctly just yet. On another subject, do we know if the GFS preturbitations are tweaked a certain way ?? I.E does preturbitation 1 ave things tweaked 20 miles east as a starting point, preturbitation 2 have low pressure systems tweaked to 5bm less, ...or something like that..and if so is there there any one preturbitation that performs better than any of the others ?? or is it all random tweaking ??

mm the JMA at + 192 not sure what to make of it, could go either way from here.

It's a case of take your pick from the ensembles suite !! Plenty of options from the 12z GFS showing a route to a decent cold spell with snow potential for many. I still think personally that the Low pressure system will drop well East of the UK, giving us just a brief flirtation with cold down the East of the UK. I think the control run is on the money.. The award for the most confused perturbation GFS run of 2013 goes to perturbation 12...it's a bit like a question of Sport's ''What happened next'' ... Lots of interesting charts on offer but cool | cold zoneality from the NW is still clearly the form horse with High pressure thereafter exerting an influence from the SW, bringing an all too quick return to milder weather taking us into W|C 9th Dec ??

for cold yes...but that's a typical ''wishbone'' chart. Good for those along the East Coast, Scotland, NW Coasts and N.Irlenad but that would likely be dry for most...still I agree it looks a peach.

FINALLY we have some form of heart hearted agreement about the possibility of a slightly more accentuated cold ''snap'' that could just deliver the goods as we head toward the middle of next month. I used those words above purposely because that's all anyone can read into a chart that is at 240 + It's already been posted above but hows this for eye candy ? What encourages me this morning is that we have both the ECM and GFS singing from the same song sheet which is to drop that deep low south into Scandinavia or over the UK (as shown above) If this comes to pass there is a tiny window of opportunity for us to latch onto a more prolonged cold spell, but for that to happen everything else has to play ball around us and we would indeed need to be most lucky. Of course the other option is that the low passes overhead so to speak and we end up pretty much give or take, as we are now. The Atlantic looks like it might be wakening up soon in any case, so at least we'll have something to talk about it would seem, it could be the strength of the wind, or it could be chasing a cold spell into + 120 . Anything is better than what the charts have been throwing at us this past week and a half !! If nothing else, it's given a glimmer of hope for something more interesting as we head into the middle of Dec.

The 06z control run has to be the least inspiring run in the entire history of GFS'. it takes 17 days to go from this... to this... (Someone wake me up in 2k14 )

Yup for us in the South this might as well be zonal especially IMBY , I have NEVER seen snow here from a North Westerly , still at least the charts are offering something of interest from a cold perspective.

this coming weekend looks very similar to what we've recently had, with Low pressuer sliding down from the North, just to the East of the UK and enough to push the High pressure back out to our West and we end up in the same situation were in now with High pressure to the South West slowly filling out ..and from there who knows.....probably going to repeat the process all over again for a 3rd time. I think it's going to be a long winter.

Well as has already been stated another zzzzzzz run from the GFS, in fact today's run is about as dire as as boring as it is possible to get. This High pressure system centered jut out to our West ... Takes almost an entire week to make the journey of a few 100 miles to end up here... and if that's not enough then 10 days later and the end of this ''boring run of the century'' we end up in about the same place .. How anyone can find this sort of set up even remotely interesting is beyond me

So the ECM gives us a northerly sourced from the heart of the north pole .... ...AND the 850 uppers are warmer than they are right now....What a joke...If the cards are stacking themselves to the point where a direct northerly feed of air from the coldest place on earth (at this time of year) STILL won't get the UK a decent cold spell, then this Winter is properly cursed and I'm going into hibernation.

Yuk, what an awful 12z. from the GFS. Rinse and repeat * 2 , High pressure meanders around and straddles the UK throughout the run, offering nothing of any real interest to anyone other than those who wear a wig.

Can't see why everyone is so dispondant , those ''mean height'' anomaly positions mean diddly squat at 10 days out. They hardly ever come off as analoged during Winter. All I can see is a continued cool set up which will help to reduce the SST and aid colder weather further down the line , Europe looks to finally get cold as well so there's the added advantage there too. It's the 21st November !!! you don't want it to be freezing cold with tonnes of snow in November, in years gone by when that's happened the rest of Winter has sucked. I think December is going to surprise many later on in the month and I'm putting a 20 quid bet on it being a white one this year at the local bookies