[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Personally Im not expecting to see anything other than a lot of greyness and rain this week.

Hope im wrong but its not looking great tbh.

All the action is 200-400 miles to the north

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS, UKMO and GEM at T96:

Looking through the runs, I think GFS has the most propensity to string out the incoming lows, making them weaker affairs.  I think we are now in the timeframe where we might see a southern correction as we approach T0 on the first half of next week.  It is difficult to call, partly because the wider hemispheric pattern is quite unusual.  

It is likely there will be a warm up for the southern half of the country towards the end of the week, but the cold may push back quite quickly, but that is so for another day!

I’m not really sure what most were expecting with this chase.  For me, given the late season, it was as much about an opportunity to learn from another SSW event, they don’t happen very often; as it was about snow potential.  But once we saw the wholesale migration of the trop PV in response to the SSW, I think most could be forgiven for setting expectations higher than what it seems is to be delivered.  Ho hum!  

Although I think the colder than average weather will persist into mid April, I suspect that in two weeks the chance of any meaningful snow will be over, at least for the south, so it is what it is, hope everyone manages to see at least some snow over the next few days.

UK winters really are a joke.  Second winter running without seeing a single snowflake.  Last time was end of November 2021 and that doesn’t qualify as winter, and, to be fair, nor will next week!

wow not often you see such differences in the models a mere 4 days away.

About the only similarity is that it will probably be cloudy and dry for most

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

46 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at Tues morning gfs snow and dp’s - doesn’t look likely to be sticking snow to me 

   

Ouch ! thanks for posting that !

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Wondering why both the Met office and most of us on here arent taking this seriously ?

Is it because its during daylight hours ?

Just wondering if some of us are looking too far ahead so notice what MIGHT be a memorable day on Tuesday ?

Maybe theyre seeing it as rain/sleet ?

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

There’s a decent clustering of colder members just beyond mid month on the EPS. It seems any “warm up” could be rather brief. 

Fits broadly with what I said previous regarding a likely re-amplification in the 2nd half of the month. 

wow not often you see such a scatter as that so early into a run. goes to show anything post 96 just cant be relied upon right now...got to laugh at that one peterbation that dips into -12 territory early doors. lots of PPN spikes in there.

So one thing I think we can say...is that it will be wet

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Things firming up for Wed night now

Icon 06z classic channel Low. Surely the norternmost extent of this PPN has a chance of it being snow especially over higher ground ?

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Haven't posted for a few days as the model varibility made it a bit of a fruitless exercise.

Channel low Wed night might give some a few hours of snowfall as its looking like it might come overnight, but its looking more and more like that will be sleet now or even just plain rain.

Beyond that I think we can safely say the daffolis will be pushing up the bodies

But I don't think it will be too long before were chasing another cold spell.

Been a pretty lack luster winter really after such a promising start. 

Anyway wont be long now before many of us will be switching over to watching the precipitation sites and at least enjoying being out in snow falling from the sky.

We'll see.

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Oh dear ☹ Icon and UKMO 

Might be game over many before its even began 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Think Im going to start focusing on Monday night into Tuesday now and wait for the models to figure the rest out.

Regardless of what comes after it does look likely many of us could wake up to a winter wonderland Tuesday morning. ?

We wont have to wait long to find out 

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Truly sobering output over lasy 24 hours for us Southerners.

Of course there is still time for things to change but the closer we get the more likely it is that those in the South like me...will barely notice any difference to how it is now...only it will be a lot wetter and much windier

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, Notty said:

That chart animation is SO unusual …

thats because from 120 onwards its the 12z data. 18z only goes out to 120 so the animation skips from 18z to 12z data...hence it looks weird

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Not sure I like the 18z Icon @ 120

ECM@120

UKMO

To my eyes if the Icon were to have gone out to 168 I fear it will have gone the same way as the ECM but maybe half a day slower in bringing the warmer air in. Both EMC and Icon have the Atlantic Low a tad further North than the UKMO and that seemingly is making all the difference ?? along with its orientation.

3 models going for the channel low though UKMO being the one that I am happy to see.

2 models (potentually) bringing the Atlantic barelling right through by this time next week.

Anyhow soon this forum will be concentrating on the next day or day after as opposed to 5 days ahead...

So regardless of what does come to pass at the back end of next week weve at least got something to look forward to beforehand.

60- 72 hours to go before the really cold air arrives in Scotland give or take..

Thats a lot of runs for things to change on way or another, features to pop up, patterns to shift etc etc etc for better or for worse.

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

I love it when we get to this stage of things we know now the cold is coming and so we start to see where might get the snow...and just about anywhere looks possible.

Then we start looking to see...if it snows will it settle.

Then we start looking at how long will it last.

Right now im sitting in the garden and I can feel the warmth of the sun, its going to come down to cloud cover and at what time the snow falls now I think.

It we get just one day where the sun is shining...it will melt.

What incredible charts though.

March 2013

March 2018

March 2023

Seems pointless throwing a chart in.

This forum is getting me through a really tough time in my life right now...so thank you to each and everyone of you.

Mag those who want it...get a tonne of ❄❄❄

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

What a relief and a pleasant surprise to see the UKMO joining the channel low party  @168.

What about the Icon though !

0z run !

LP stalls and slips gradually South takes a whole day to move from the first image to the last one below !

❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄ 

 

❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

ICON/GFS/ECM all looking very similar at 120

UKMO for once seems at odds with the other models with less of a North Easterly component. 

Id love to see a channel Low, but no point in getting excited about the prospects of that when its at 192......but its nice to see there is growing support for it as a possibility

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

If that was a +48 chart id be calling in work and telling them I have to take the day off in 2 days time

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

11 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

12z GFS op at day 5….

 

Hammer blow.

 

Can someone explain why in that bottom chart theres a big area across Southern Scotland that shows as rain ?

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

JMA overnight run is a good one as well.

Seems to be that the models are converging on Tuesday/Wednesday as being the days where the real fun is going to be had.

Between 144-192

At least we can be pretty much sure now that the cold will get here..so thats the first piece of the jigsaw and probably the most important one more or less in place.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

I give up trying to second guess whats going to happen in 5 days time.

Surely this if it came off would be epic.

honestly I don't think any of the models have a clue do they ?

just got to enjoy the eye candy and see what happens I guess

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Looking at the NOAA 500 mb charts, the last one, last evening 28/2, the 6-10 was very similar to the last few days, showing a general movement west of both +ve heights and contour ridge. The 8-14 shows westerly contours over the UK. All but the far north of the UK originating from south of the major trough centre. This would seem to suggest the main cold thrust is a fairly short one?

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Yup, I think this going to come down to the angle of attack from the West ? and how long it takes to displace it. Can't see any systems just barreling through though ?

Hope not anyway. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Icon @120 feels like Groundhog day as this is the same chart weve been looking at for about 20 years now.

Eastward progress of the Cold air probably going to creep slowly SW on this run.

Another battleground run got to say that things are looking more and more like a Midlands North affair with the South missing out.

120 is now approaching a reliable timeframe and I think that by tomorrow night were going to know whats the likely area thats in the firing line...well give or take a few 100 miles anyway..potentially

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

what a mess we've woken up to this morning....Icon 0z below..

Seems to me that this is the direction of travel, is battleground territory.. not exactly as modelled but its looking more and more like its headed towards battleground territory on many of the models. I think its a case of seeing just how far South and West the really deep cold can travel now, before milder air from the Atlantic wins out...if indeed it actually does...and if it does...where will that battleground take place....?

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

2 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

UKMO day 7 is brilliant great call by Nick.

phew ! thanks for posting that

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

12z UKMO has a more elongated upper high over S Greenland down to west of Ireland compared to GFS at T+144, so would keep.Atlantic lows at bay and allow the cold northerly to dig deeper into Europe / better CAA. 

Mind you, with a Greenland centric block it's always a fine balance of too far east or south and we are dry and settled, too far west or north and it allows in Atlantic lows in from the west or southwest threatening to introduce milder air. At the moment, the balance is just right for coldies on 12z GFS so far, because we are under the SW edge of the expansive low heights of the displaced trop PV to the NE, if that wasn't there pulling deep cold air down, could be a different picture.

Would it not also prevent any further westward movement of the cold air into the UK though as well ? (UKMO) 

I.e keep everything to the East ? 

or am I reading it wrong ?

If that elongated HP is easentially being squeezed from both sides its going to either alllow the Atlantic to break through or form in of its own and keep the UK in no mans land at the crucial timeframe ?

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

That disturbance around Iceland is a pain on the UKMO. Could very easily phase with that Atlantic LP as the HP moves away NW. That would be grim…

Yes agreed and I dont like how the Icon went either, this could be all over before it's even started tbh.

Others will make of it what they will be for me the UKMO has taken a  step away from a prolonged cold spell on todays 12z