[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Well this has to go down as the biggest let down ever for down here.

A whole week spent getting excited for absolutely nothing.

Ive seen more 'white' on the ground on a frosty October morning than I hsve on the ground here and I cant see anything more coming this way going by the radar return.

Whoever does get snow though is going to be able to enjoy it for the next week at least.

I wont be radar watching tonight as theres no point, aint nothing coming this way.

GFS has consistently modelled Tuesday as being a day of potential here so I think thats the next day of opportunity, even a 10 minute heavy snow shower would give me more than I have now so ill see what happens then...after which it will be looking to see what happens with the LP on Friday from off the Atlantic.

 

A week full of potential, but tbh thats all it ever is down this way, potentials that never materialize.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Such a let down today, all those years of waiting for it to snow and then when it finally does, it all melts upon impact, just makes me want to go squat in the corner of a dark room and lay an egg tbh 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just as it was starting to look good, the sun has poked its head back out and the snow that had started to settle has all but melted

 

It is at least giving it a go, its barely a dusting but its something and I got to run in the snow.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Snow here has changed to this weird pellet type snow and its starting to settle.

Can really feel the wind chill now, slowly everything it turning white

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

This is like the ultimate slap in the face 90 minutes of non stop heavy snow and not a bit of it is settling, its like whats the point..might as well be raining. I really give up

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

OK finally beginning to get somewhere now, snizzle is slowing turning into light snow, not expecting anything to settle but it's a step towards decent snow and the sky is slowly getting whiter and whiter. I think I might head off out for a run shortly

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Not sure if it's drizzle or snizzle here, I think the South Downs is preventing all the PPN from getting here as ever since 6am it literally fizzles out about 10  miles to the West and I see now it's somehow passing to our North as well. only thing that seems to make sense. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just now, Marie said:

Snizzle is getting heavier

hahahaha what's making me laugh is that the sun is still poking it's head through the clouds, it's brighter today than it was most of last week 

Still if it stays like this I reckon in about 657 million years time we'll have a few cm. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, TheMoonman said:

Kryten? Is that you? 

lol  yay ...A fellow Dwarfer  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Well spin my nipple nuts and send me to Alaska, we have snizzle

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

The sun has come out here can see Blue sky's.

This is going to be an All Kent, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk affair. 

If anything down here the PPN has moved back eastwards in the last few hours so i've seen all I need to see to know i'm getting naff all. 

But at least it's dry

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

So far this winter weve been too far South, Too far East and now were too far West.

Im done with winter 2020/2021 can we just move onto spring now please.

Yet another snowless winter to add to the rest of the snowless winters here bar 1 day in 2018...since 2013. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Last 2 hours and the Brighton Snow shield is clearly working... i give up.

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Yet another absolute flop for those further west to add to the rest of the flops this winter. 

Yup same here. Its been the floppiest winter since Sir Bruce Flop the inventor of the flip flop spent a decade in the lesser known town of flop, flipping his flip flops at secret society meetings of the "Flipping floppers club" 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

14 minutes ago, EJA said:

I don’t mean to moan but I can’t help feeling frustrated but all the last min chopping and changes after the event already being watered down for us further west. 

Probably my fault though.

i brought 2 sledges for my children on Thursday which I paid express delivery for costing £31 to ensured they arrived by Monday so I may well have added to the jinxes and tempted fate there! And secondly I made the mistake of telling people. I should have known better!  So sorry from me

A question now I’d i may.... Can anyone tell me why the radar says my location has been under precipitation for hours yet nothing’s falling?? Thanks 

Your using the wromg radar, its not getting to us. I can see a stramer setting up around seaford area though...they always seem to be in the sweet spot there.

 

Im giving up on this, total non event AGAIN

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Lmfao what a let down so far. 

All the PPN seems to magically vanish about 15 miles North of my location on the radar, but looking at dew points mothing would be settling in any case.

Guess it will be a day of radar watching but im not hopefull.

 

If we miss out AGAIN from this I think i'll hang my hat up as a snow lover and just become a sun worshiper instead.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

now that's what you call East Meets West and on this run (Control) East is winning, absolutely the best period of model watching i've ever seen in 12 years of model watching.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Phenomenal output from a coldies' perspective.

Are we watching a Classic unfold?

Always at day 10. But as I am writing this, the snow and frost is already entering the East of the Netherlands and there will be no mild between now and day 10.

Everyone please appreciate how incredibly rare it is what we are watching right now.

And if this verifys look at the atlantic, there's absolutely nothing coming our way from there, that's cold locked in for a long while. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Erm ?? What ??? 

If this really does go pear shaped 24 hours out then im blaming some secret government weather adjusting technology.

 

This is basicly going to come down to looking out the window or going for a wonder in the hills and hoping for the best

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

This is like model watching heaven, first we have tomorrows snow event - then we have the possibility of a channel low effecting the south coast mid week and THEN we have the distinct possibility that what were seeing this week could just be the appetiser before the main event and a real Beast from the Beast courtesy of a Scandi High.

 

I recall seeing someone post mid week about how a southerly jet stream can often lead to the formation of a scandi high

I think winter 2020/2021 will be one that we refer back to in the years to come, much like we do with 1987and 2010

ICON 4am Wed morning.

Associated uppers

That would be a very close call, JUST about OK for Snow but any further north and that would probably be rain on the coastline. 

And the GEM then throws this at us, now THIS is what a Beast from the East looks like !!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

South Coast left out of the warning area ...yup that would be about right then

Will probably see a few flakes that took a wrong turn then if that's anything to go by or perhaps it's the dew points and they don't think the snow is going to settle anywhere south of the South Downs. 

plenty of Time for the warnings to be updated though. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

8 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

That will be requiring some sort of Arctic explorer garment EML.

I'm pretty high on the South Downs myself ( Saltdean elevation) and a screeming North easter progged on Sunday with maximums of -1c is going to feel like -10c I would think!

HAHAHA Yup, base layer, vest and standard running top, then i've got my waterproof and windproof jacket No 1 and another waterproof and windproof jacket on top of that.  A buff for my neck, 2 pairs of gloves, knee length socks, plus my trail shoes and calf guards. 

Nice warm hat and another on my hydration vest just to be safe, running boxers, running shorts and thermal leggings and i'll carry windproof and waterproof lightweight running trousers in my hydration vest just to be safe. 

It's a lot of weight to have on your person for running, but I'm working my way up to running the Mont Blanc Mountain marathon in a few years time, plus Snowdonia Marathon this year and Lake district ''5 Passes'' Ultra and the Ring of Hell Ultra marathon and the shropshire way 80km race this year....so it's all good training. 

 

If anything I might actually be too hot and have to unzip layers hahaha

 

We'll see how it unfolds, I might opt to stay a little closer to home if its really really bad out there. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

15 minutes ago, Bevbrighton said:

I’m in peacehaven so used to missing out but am still hopeful of a few hours of light snow Sunday, sounds like your not hopeful? 

Hey...I'm hopeful but as you can imagine; given how hard it is for us to get snow down here even when a few miles inland gets buried...im just trying to keep my hopes realistic. 

Best we can hope I think is that a Thames streamer sets up and that is a definite possibility, so we could get really lucky. 

I think we will see snow falling but not massive amounts, I'll be running up around Ditchling Beacon and Devils Dyke on Sunday anyway as I want to make the best of it and go to where the snow will be deepest

 

Just hoping I don't freeze to death lmfao

 

you guys tend to fare better over there than we do here generally, you seem to be just that bit further East and it seems to make a bit of difference for some reason. 

It will probably come down to looking at the radar and hoping 

 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Also made the mistake of popping into the mod thread earlier. Loads of bickering about a potential breakdown 6/7 days away and virtually no discussion about the next 5 days. Think I'll stay out of there for a while.

It's always the same, they'll still probably be bickering whilst it's snowing outside and actually miss getting out to enjoy it 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Trying hard NOT to get excited down here (erm that sounds very wrong !!!) 

But over the last 24 hours at least for us snow starved south Central / South East coasters it is looking more and more promising with each passing run that we MIGHT see some snow over Sunday and Monday and possibilities right through until Wednesday.

The issue with a warm sector seems to have lessened over the last 3 or 4 runs it's still there but it looks like the warmer uppers have been mixed out and replaced by uppers easily supportive of snowfall now. 

Control run shows this quite nicely. 

Wedge of ''warmer'' uppers is still there even on Monday morning, but it's around -3/-4 as opposed to the close to 0 it was showing this time yesterday, but it's plenty cold enough given the direction of travel.

I'm not expecting to see all that much falling from the Sky here on Sunday, but no doubt others further North, such as  Kent, North Surrey, London, Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk in particular, well you guys look like on Sunday at least you might be buried and im happy for you.  seems like you've been almost as unlucky as we have down here on the coast over the last 4 or 5 years. 

My eyes are now being drawn to Tuesday as there is a staggering number of runs that have a quite localised area of PPN forming around Kent, Sussex, Surrey some of this is as a result of the low heading through North France and others show this as a feed from the east, but it seems we might be lucky here and whichever direction this comes from...east or west anything that does fall out of the sky would probably be snow...so going to show the various runs picking up on this from the 00z GFS from around the 96-120 timeframe, but because there are soooo many I'm literally just using the runs going up to run No 10 else i'll be here all day.

Anything beyond 120 is too far away given the current set up tbh regardless of what it's showing so I'm not going to include anything post 120.

Control (+120)

Run 2 (+120)

Run 3 (+108)

Run 4 (+108)

Run 5 (+114)

Run 7 (+108)

Run 8 (+96)

Run 9 (+108)

So from the first 10 runs + the control run I.e 11 runs that I've looked at 8 of them are showing this feature which is statistically significant and it's in the relatively reliable timeframe as well so if any of you do miss out on Sunday there looks like being another bite at the cherry at least for us south of London on Tuesday.