[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Here comes the critical moment .

Day 7 into 8 on the ECM. Energy needs to disrupt se under the high .

It's such a close call isn't it wouldn't like to guess which way the ECM will go from 168 !

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

ECM Looks like it's heading a similar way to GFS / UKMO +120, but more of a half way house, between the two.. seems to be the crux time for all of this and it's from this point really that it could go any number of ways. but it's good to have all 3 models headed in the same direction...

Disappointed with the GFS 12Z Suite though, was expecting to see far more runs below -10 @850 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

ICON / UKMO / GFS at +144

I'm not sure which if the three I'd prefer at this timestamp, definate step towards a cold spell, but it's not a given.

Going to be some eye candy on the peterbations for sure.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Icon smelling the coffee, well done UKMO!

Slider and battleground snow event coming up?

If there was ever an NE meets NW chart that surely would be it. Impossible to predict which way it would go from there 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

I was ready to throw the towel in this morning but the 06z GFS has given me a  gillmer of hope that it could still fall into place, that is viewing through an intergalactic strength pair of rose tinted glasess though.

The writing is on the wall, but there's still a few runs left where the writing could be rubbed out and for me one letter was rubbed out when I saw the 06z roll out in the early stages, in combination with the overnight UKMO.

But odds are it's game over.

If we look at the 06GFS mean at +192 we can see how it's going to take a big change in the output to bring the cold back into play, but the high hasn't quite sunk at that point and there is energy underneath it...just.

were closer to the cold air as opoosed to he warm, but it is knocking in the door as the cold air is exiting and for some reason I cant explain somewhere in what Im seeing is telling me that in a few weeks time we might be looking East as opposed to North ..maybe just wishfull thinking.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

slight improvement on the 06z compared to last few runs, cut off low out of Canada heading South East and High over the UK not as 'full' 

Im wondering if we are going to see another polar plunge deep in FI ?? or is the end result going to go the same way? 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

ECM + 120 too hard to call, could go either way and GFS for comparison. ECM looking a tad better upstream maybe and high isnt throwing out an arm in Scandi.

If the High over the UK didn't extend so far to the South West of the UK it might allow those systems coiming out of Newfoundland to dig underneath..thats where all of this is going wrong in my opinion, becsuse if it does it pulls that cold air to the NE towards it...links up with it forces the high further to the north...props it up.

 

instead result is everything misses to the East and that High eventually sinks and the Atlantic pushes everything out of play for another week thereafter at least

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

I think were clutching at straws now folks.

writing has been on the wall for a few days now neither ECM or GFS and fewer and fewer of thier respective ensembles are giving the UK the direct hit we wanted.

+162 Mean shows it all too well, every run its shifting everything further and further to the East and the energy upstream is simply not going underneath.

All of that being said, I think soon were going to be chasing an Easterly much the same way weve been chasing this one...as long as the HP over the UK doesn't sink into France/Europe we have a chance.

But I think we can now be confident that a cold and snowy period of weather is off the table prior to say 10th March.

 

A bold call for sure, but I think it's time to accept that were gonna miss the first bite at the cherry...will there be time for a 2nd bite ??

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Could be worse

transiant snow before it all turns to rain 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

I must be seeing it wrong because to me ECM 192 is going the wrong way ? its all happening to the East and surely its back to mundane westerlies soon after ? 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 hour ago, vizzy2004 said:

 

Surprised at such negative comments regarding the ECM this morning. It’s a huge improvement to last nights run, especially  in the short term and if you look at the 216-240 timeframe it’s likely the colder air to the NE will filter our way as the low to the west spawns a shortwave across towards Scandi which would acts as our “trigger low” to advect the coldest air over Norway towards us. GFS has shown the scenario a handful of times over the last couple of days so perhaps we are seeing some agreement on how we MIGHT manage to advect some decent cold air our way. 
UKMO is similar to the EC this morning which is good news, fingers crossed for some further upgrades as the day progresses. 

I'm not sure I agree with that, because if that tigger low does fall SE and head into Scandi or even Europe, the way the high over the UK is positioned it will simply act to avert any cold air East again.

 

For me the writing has been on the wall for a few days now, I personally believe it's all going to miss to our East...as per usual.

We might have a brief flirtation but throughout this projected cold spell we've always been modelled to be on the periphary of it.

 

Of course I do hope im wrong and its just my opinion.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes but we now have GFS/GEFS/GEM and JMA looking good - and we now have a sync between the models we can see and their update - apart from the ECM!! 
 

Last week we had cold looking models we can see and no sync with the MET !!

 

Tomorrow we do not want this potential cold spell delaying anymore. I think this place will be buzzing tomorrow

I remember a winter not so long ago when we had all the models bar the ECM gunning for cold and snow ....and the ECM won out and the same thing happened then....i.e the models showing cold and snow kept pushing the 'arrival' date back...and it never materialized.

Not saying that's going to happen now, but what were seeing now...feels all too familliar

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Oh no...OH NO...Oh No..no..no..no

 

Why does this always hapen the same day the METO update thier LR forecasts to include the 'S' word ? 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Not what we wanted to be waking up to this morning. The GFS OP would probably have gotten there if it could go to +400, but in all honesty who cares ?

whats become pretty clear now is that the HP after retrogressing towards Iceland gets homesick and decides to come back, then goes on a tour of Europe, the end result of which....

The ECM and the high barely goes anywhere, it thinks about heading NW but thinks 'nah cant be bothered' and turns into a sausage. 

 

End result = more mundane and dry weather for the majority.

I might just hang up my boots for this time around and see ya'll again next year at this rate !

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Probably not worth reading too much from the model output past day 7/8, GFS op keeps chopping and changing with how quickly the blocking high near UK retrogrades west or northwest and declines, how far west or east the cold plunge moves south towards northern Europe and how much undercutting of the block there is over the N Atlantic by lows. 

But the broad idea of blocking high near northern UK loitering into next week before drifting west or northwest to allow a deep cold plunge towards UK / North Sea tail end of next week has been on the cards for a while from most model ensemble guidance. 

well said. generally when these models all pick up on a pattern so far out and keep running with it as they have done all week its usually a good sign.

were either going to hit the jackpot or its going to be a very near miss (And if it does miss its likely to be to our East I think)

 

we seem to have lost the plunge too far to the West signal now which is a relief

 

.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

Roll it on just a bit

252 Mean

I'd be amazed if we get nothing out of this 

This is what Ive been waiting for. the Mean is perfect cold air will reach us before the LP coming out of Canada and that Mean screams channel Lows !

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well id take that at day 10 I have a feeling we’ll get there quicker though with upgrades throughout the day.

wow thats absolute perfection for what should follow surely ?

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

18 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Sorry, thats not true...

These charts have consistently been predicting the retrogression of the high over the Greenland coupled with troughing from Siberia through Eurpoe to Iberia - for days now. And my favoured NOAA charts are following there lead.

It is absolutely true that they might be inaccurate, but with such consistency from the development of the high to our near west, having it drift and develop to our North strongly, then to predict its retrogression into Greenland which does look like happening, id be very surprised if such accuracy so far was going to be far from wrong - and these charts support a cold wintry northerly.

If these charts arent a "strong consistent signal" i dont know what is!

only problem with these charts though is that the UK is right on the borderline so even if they do come off its going to be yet another all NE facing coasts affair and you can see that LP'S ready to strike from newfoundland bringing with it warmer air from the West.

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

28 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

Day 10 ECMWF for what it's worth, back to square one and no wintry spell

It's not a million miles from the GFS at the same timeframe its the orientation of the HP that is different and tbh that seems to be the main difference between the models and has been for what seems like an eternity now.

 

Dont think I can remember a February or indeed any other time whereby the weather pattern has been so stagnant here and the winds have been so light.

It's been an odd month.

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

So it's no surprise to me to see that the cold spell has been pushed back several days by the GFS and that the ECM mean has also moved away from the 4th/5th March being the rough timeframe for it all coming together.

 

If we have to wait until the 8th to get something like the chart below then its worth the wait.

What Im feeling happy about is that the GFS hasn't ditched the overal pattern, instead it's given a more robust pattern that would (if it came off) devlier a proper cold spell that would be entrenched.

I expect this (2nd bite at the cherry) as it were will be more likely to become reality, its evolution just seems more plausible.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

Just when you want to see some consistency, the GFS throws out a few runs with a west based -NAO.

Leaving us in no mans land Typical

yup and it would be a long route back to cold from there too

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Somwhere in the SE might wake up to a dusting on Monday morning.

Position of the system is favourable for a Thames Streamer too 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 hour ago, Snowboy111 said:

Difference between mince and knowledge is vast here. 

A lot of unseasoned commentors on here will react to a single run and are blinded by it as opposed to taking all the various models and taking an objective balanced stand point.

Even ensembles from run to run will have wild swings.

The best approach is to see where the danger lays in things NOT going the way we want it to.

Once these anomolies start appearing, get dropped but then subsequently reappear  few runs later...it has to be given as much credence as the runs where everthing comes together and shows us what we want.

For example when we see a cold spel modelled in FI we can see the potential is there and then we search in susequent runs to see if the same or similar pattern shows up.

 

What we dont do as a rule is the reverse of that and instead focus our attention away from the 'warning signs' and this year after year after year is what ultimately leads to dissappointment.

 

06z GFS run was awesome for sure and I for one hope it comes off, but you cant simply ignore it when you start to see spoliers in the output even if for a few runs they dissapear as often they come back into play a few runs or even a few days later.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Not too sure I like how things are progressing this week....it seems that this Northerly and then ENE plunge is being watered down...not just in terms of its positioning but also how wide the area of cold air is and now we seemingly have the Atlantic LP systems to contend with

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

8 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

I think its the case of once bitten twice shy, There as been so many times where it fails at the last hurdle. So many being cautious I should imaging 

or 657 billion times bitten...etc etc...shy and the first hurdle lol

The cross model potential is clearly there though. its nice to see both of the main models singing from a similar songsheet well into F.I and that has to give us a little more confidence this time around....or could they both be leading us astray in unision ?? lol