[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

11 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

You're worried about FI, I am not. ICON12z is really good.

It could set up an Easterly but then its simply waiting for yet another 2 or 3 days and relying on other factors to fall into place...we'll see if any of the others follow suite.

For me with that HP lurking so close to the SW it's not really a trend I want to see.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Icon showing no undercut at all.

hope this isn't be beginning of a new trend as the cold air makes a slow retreat to the East leaving us in no mans land.

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

31 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

To be fair they have been ever since the pre warming and tropical storm got in the way about this time last week, I'm so glad once the warmi g happened and the storm cleared, it's finally calmed down a bit. I'm expecting short term volatility during the cold spell again though, that's normally standard, but we'll see.

Agreed I can forsee systems forming seemingly out of nowhere and its likely to make for a forecasting nightmare this time next week beyond a few days potentially

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I was going to post about this feature after I read through the comments.

I don't see it on the Euros but it is prominent in a lot of the GFS output and a quite likely scenario.

The timing and how and when it phases with the main trough would be key to any outcome but it does have the potential to be a spoiler.

If it does become a feature then it is probably the last major hurdle between deep cold and us if we get unlucky and it blows up to our N cutting off any Arctic feed and weakening the block.

 

It will most likely phase with the trough without blowing up though and could either accentuate showers if phases to our E or bring some frontal snow if it phases over the UK. The main thing is that it doesn't develop as it comes S without phasing.

It is something to keep an eye on now that the overall pattern is pretty much nailed down for that timeframe because for the UK what can go wrong will go wrong when it comes to cold but it is very much a worse case scenario.

On the other hand it could be irrelevant and be gone in future output or be a potential snowmaker.

GFS has it developing around 120h on the 5th so quite far out for such a fine detail. 

 

I've also noticed this cropping up and if it does go the way of the Pear just as we get things into the reliable...I'm taking a trip to Beachy Head

Probably going to be looking for that feature more than anything else at early stages of next runs.

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

28 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

I was just thinking the same thing I mean seriously what the hell is that. It doesn’t even look like it’s physically possible 

The entire suite is having a nervous breakdown

Control run hasn't got a clue either.

Think that beyond 168 is the definition of model chaos.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

GFS @ 246 is the most hillarious chart Ive ever seen. its like the model has had a melt down and it throwing up systems after being on an all night bender

good luck making sense out of that !

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

why is that then..because its march..or because its too far away for details currently?

probably both and tbh we wont really know until the day itself...we dont get this type of set up often so theres not really all the much in the way of history to go by either.

Midlands seem to be favoured at this juncture but that could and probably will change 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

At 216 some serious snow around as systems run accross the south. We wouldn’t need -8c 850s in this thickness 

 

The set up looks like it could reload too 

Yup that looks primed to double drop might have a temporary uptick at 240 but would likely reload 24 hours later and then that would also set up a slider potential somewhere around 300 and not only that but would also open doors to an easterly.

 

This ECM run is the absolute holy grail for extended cold. it really doesnt get any better

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

well id say those uppers @144 on the ECM will be supoortive of snowfall wherever you are in the UK.

I think we have a full house now.

this place is going to go bezzerk today, especially if the 06GFS chruns out a goodun later. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Well we finally have all the models joining the party. @144

Its like being in a candy store and everything you see is your favourite sweet.

And not only that but there is a still a signal for an Easterly further down the line.

BUT there is also an equally strong signal that this could turn into a 2 day bust and we'll all be wondering why we spent the best part of 10 days getting excited by a  2 day cold snap.

UKMO has to be given praise its the only model that has not faltered once throughout this entire 10 day period absolutely resolute with its offerings right from the outset. ! and once again the pick of the bunch if you ask me this morning.

Best period of model watching for us coldies in a long long while.

Enjoy the output today folks regardless of what each model shows post 192.

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Completely agree.  In my opinion, this is the effect of the SSW that has been hinted at over the last week in the ensembles etc. coming into sharp relief on the best op models.

If anyone comes on here and tries to claim that the above is being modelled due to the MJO farting about near the COD in phase 7, they need to take a look at themselves!

Thats the funniest comment Ive seen on here in a while.

I'd rather exect though it was the herring as opposed to the cod

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

JEM heading in a similar direction. IF the GFS jumps on board were all going to be looking at how far south these systems off the Atlantic will go.

but were not at that stage just yet.

interesting that of all models it was the GEM that was the first to throw this scenario out there as a possible evolution !

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Agreed but remember this? That was when it became interesting for me. Ukmo then picked up the baton. Dates not exactly the same but…..

I think you might have to change your user name to THAT ECM 2023

or something along those lines, god only kmows how cold that would be if it was a January chart at the surface.

If this gets any support from its other member runs though ill eat my hat.

we can dream though what a fascinating day its been.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Best chart of the entire winter ! and its at 168. no way this isn't going to be an outlier though surely !

Cant wait to see the next 2 timestamps

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Talk about swings and roundabouts Hard to really make much sense out of it all at the moment really.

None of the models are really in any agreement even at 144. GEM and UKMO are the closest matches

ECM

GFS

GEM

UKMO

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Icon looking good cold air in place across Eastern side of the whole of the UK.

NE Scotland especially so

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

6 minutes ago, MATT TATTOO said:

There is nobody ganging up on a particular member mate. If your following a particular poster and one post they are saying things look good,then the next post they're saying things look bad,I'm sure you can understand how some would get very confused!

I happen to find Lukes analysis very refreshing..he does jump the gun a little but he offers some good insight,and tbh he reminds me of a certain Shaky character. So if he is being picked on I most certainly disagree with it.

All good in the hood, it's just others jumping on the bandwagon that frustrates me. 

Think weve all been guilty of doing it though at some point or another. And its kinda understandable given the model instabity' especially GFS since its much fabled down/up - grade

Anyhows..onwards and upwards

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

7 minutes ago, MATT TATTOO said:

Congratulations young man you have won the award for having what we call..split personality weather disorder. The model is gr8 in 1 frame then poor by the 2nd frame and gr8 again at frame 3. Your getting excited in one post,but feet firmly on the ground and it can all go wrong in the next one.

Your entertainment value is unrivalled

Solid UKMO and ECM could bring fab snowfall events.. things are finally getting tasty this oh so long Winter! It perhaps goes out in a whimper and fires back up like a gladiator.

Been suffering from that myself for 15 years...whats the cure ?

meanwhile JMA making a dogs dinner out of the Atlantic. god only knows where it would go from here...probably a mild SW'erly

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

interesting chart at +174 and an improvement on the 00z.

Were obviously looking both NE, N and W and hoping that the pieces allign just right.

Too many obstacles in the way for my liking prior to this to overcome, but its dragging its heels towards the semi reliable timframe now.

Just seems to me that weve spent a whole week looking at more or less the same chart but what I am liking is that the models picked up on this way into FI and have pretty much ran with it all the way through.

6th-8th March has pretty much always been the date of arrival.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

30 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Much more scatter returning on this morning's mogreps .

That's thrown a spanner in the works combined with the post below yours re return to westerlies. is this going to end up a 2 day cold blip before were waving goodbye to this season ? 

I hope not

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

36 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I just like to comment on the runs that's all..after all that is what we are here for...yes Midlands northward looks best placed what about us in the south..surely 216 everyone is in the game?

Hard to tell, need the cold air from the NNE to have arrived a good 24 hours beforehand in my opinion, I doubt there would be much in the way of sunshine either with the ECM set up, so it could just about be OK.

might be that elevation comes into play.

And yes I agree no harm in commenting on each run as they come out, gone are the days when people viewed each run as gospel.

One step closer to seeing something decent this morning, many more steps ahead though.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

so hard not to look at the ECM without wanting it to shunt the atlantic influence a 100 miles further south, but thats coming from a locational point of view and asking for perfection.

If it comes off as modelled though many places could look to enjoy a good few days of snow as the cold has arrived before the Atlantic influence does.

It would be hard to find a better chart than the one above (if only it was early Jan !!)

GFS Mean at 192 feels like a chart weve been looking at for an eternity.

All roads now seem to be pointing at a cold spell of some description and I was happy to see more of the GFS members dipping into -10 territory than has been the case over the weekends runs.

Any Easterly signal for wel beyond FI in my eyes seems to have vanished somewhat now though.

Most of that writing on the wall has gone, bur for those such as me in the South especially given ECM evolution the margins are far too close to be optomistic is the ECM is on the money especially.

All in all we have got to be feeling more confident this morning that in a mere 7 days time some of us could be watching bit white fluffy flakes falling out of the sky than we were a few days ago.

BUT the crux time (120-144) still to be decided and it could still.easily all go wrong.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

My words taste good. thats the last time i comment on a run so early on as well. 

I should know better. 

Cold arrives before the Atlantic does finally.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

I know it's folly to comment on a run so early on, but profile of the High on the 18z looks flatter, compared to the 12z and I'm not sure that's going to yield as good a results moving forward, (compared to the 12z)  but If that proves to be wrong I'll be only too happy to eat my words. will be interesting to see if this follows the ECM in laa laa land. 

18z

12z

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

ECM @192 isnt a million miles off what the GEM was showing this morning.

Doesn't seem to be any reliability at all post 144 from any of the models.

Apparent now that this won't be resolved for a few days, but at least were still in the hunt