AWD

36 hours to go then I can dry off and strip off;

A look at the radar this morning gives Bristol its very own “micro climate”. With the majority of the region seeing some respite of the consistent rainfall we’ve had recently, Bristol gets clobbered with a continuous streamer filtering over the City from the estuary. It’s literally just enveloping the city and surrounding areas, and is back building into one continuous drenching. Ah well, flying out to Tenerife on Tuesday morning, can’t wait!

Managed to get the ground wet with a bit of heavy rain here but that’s the lot. Sad times for convective weather fans in Bristol so far this summer.

Got a bit more of a NW movement to them compared to earlier so I think it’ll catch you. Not sure about me over east Bristol yet. Fresh strikes detected around the Weston area too.

Admittedly scraping the dregs of the barrel here, but I may just catch a shower from these lot heading up the M5 before the day is out.

Some potent cells developing over North Devon heading NNW. Currently heading into South Wales but if we could get some developments on the eastern periphery of the cells then I may just clip some showers later on. A few sferics detected amongst them but nothing particularly active. Need to see some developments between Exeter & Weymouth IMBY.

Radar suggest some rather potent cells heading your way from the Channel over the next couple of hours.

So today has been totally cloudy all day (so far) with on/off rainfall. Not quite what the MetO suggested on last nights local weather forecast of early rain/showers clearing to leave a sunny day with just isolated further showers. Storms developing over the border in Wales, sunshine and showers further east towards Swindon and eastwards. Rain & cloud here.

Thats one impressive line of storm cells running the entirety of Wales from north to South. Newport and up into the valleys currently seeing some very heavy rainfall along with recent sferics. Mean while, in my locality, we have had a day of cloud cover, humidity and on/off rainfall. Not quite the sunshine and isolated showers the MetO suggested last night.

Half decent day here today. Plenty of sun between passing clouds, which feels warm still, despite a cool breeze blowing. Finishing work shortly, half day today so with a bit of luck my garden may be sheltered from the breeze and with no kids today, a relaxing afternoon in the garden beckons!

The difference a couple of hundred miles makes. Down here in SW England, we’ve barely had any rain at all still, just some brief, nuisance drizzle on a couple of occasions & that doesn’t look like changing this working week either. A continuation of predominantly dry conditions (bar some well scattered showers here & there), sunny spells inbetween often cloudy conditions and temperatures not too far from average. Not great no, but not exactly “unsettled” here either. Goes to show how diverse the weather is even over our small island.

Still waiting for any “proper” unsettled weather to reach my location. This week has been predominantly dry (bar a bit of drizzle early yesterday) albeit mainly cloudy but still warm. Weekend looks to keep that theme of dry and rather cloudy, although sunny periods are also possible. Still in the low twenties so warm enough. The wait for meaningful rainfall IMBY continues…….

I often reference this one when looking for specific data; Weather data for Horfield and Filton, Bristol UK WWW.MARTYNHICKS.UK Current weather data from an automatic weather station since February 2004, including webcam, monthly archive, live updates. Temperature, humidity, rain, pressure, wind, solar and UV Always comes across as fairly reliable and accurate.

Been the theme over the last few days this has. Many of us have noticed it. Another mainly dry week for the South & South East of the UK coming up, albeit often cloudy. Some nuisance rainfall possible midweek from weakening fronts. Still warm temperatures. For balance, the North & North West turning progressively fresher and wetter, with frequent rainfall here. Weekend onwards looks favoured to turn unsettled more widely, albeit how unsettled remains to be seen. Duration also under question as you would expect at this time frame. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see any rainfall for the S/SE get “watered” down as we get nearer the time, as has often happened this season.

Down your part of the world there will be very little rain until next weekend at the earliest (leaving aside the drizzly nuisance values possible midweek). Cloudy often yes, but still warm and dry for the most part.

Exactly my thoughts for a while now. Not seeing much rain at all down here in the south over the next week. Just a few spits and spots interrupting a rather dry but often cloudy week ahead with respectable temperatures still. Next weekend possibly turning somewhat wetter for a few days before trends suggest a return to more settled conditions across the south into week 2. It’s unlikely to be notable unsettled period down south. I will balance this post out with reference to the north though, as things do look rather different here. Scotland and Ireland in particular do look rather wet for the foreseeable with some substantial rainfall possible here, filtering down into the borders, Lake District and parts of Wales too. So a bit of a typical NW/SE split coming up really. Unsettled and fresher for the NW half of the country, remaining relatively dry (bar some nuisance rainfall) across the south & east with respectable temperatures still, albeit not always sunny. No extremes at either end of the spectrum.

I personally wouldn’t make too much of what any model forecasts with regards to PPN in x amount of days time. Personal experience over the past couple of weeks as not shown models such as the UKV in a great light with regards to PPN forecasts and what I’ve actually received IMBY. GFS and other models just as bad at times too for what it’s worth. Personally, I don’t think too much rainfall will get down to the south and east of the UK over the next week or so. I can see plenty of warm and dry weather continuing down here despite a different atmospheric set up taking place. Just a gut feeling when flicking through ensemble products and pressure charts etc, I just don’t see strong evidence of appreciable rain down south. For balance, different story up north though where Scotlands well advertised water shortages should be eased over the next week for example.

Noticed it going rather dark & sunless in the last few minutes. A quick glance at the radar shows why. It appears we have some small cells developing and heading up the M5 towards me. Perhaps a little more rain IMBY to come yet.

Looks as though the SW and Southern coastal counties may get that appreciable rainfall overnight tonight, that many have been wanting for their gardens etc;

A few, non thundery cells have developed over the Mendips now. Like a little tease of what could have been……

Mini storm currently over Exmoor. Rest of the SW seeing overcast conditions with various intensities of rain scattered about. Core storm action, as expected, further north over the Midlands.

Which is what is exactly starting to happen now. Radar starting to return cell development over the northern Home Counties, Chilterns into the Midlands. The UKV apologises for the 15 minute delay.

To be fair, the radar is already looking like going the way of that forecast. Currently completely overcast here, but warm/humid. We will see what develops but things definitely edging towards these storm forecasts at this early stage already.

I see @Netweather forecasts very own storm forecast for today just about sums up my locations (and the SW as a whole) storm attractions so far this summer perfectly; Absolutely perfectly aligned to circle around Bristol and give the SW a relatively dry, humid and cloudy day as I alluded to yesterdays!

With the possible exception of Exmoor, it doesn’t look particularly wet anywhere across the SW over the next couple of days at least. Tomorrows rain/storms looks like entering the UK, Hampshire eastwards and travelling due north up the eastern side of the UK. Other storms over Ireland. Monday looks similar in distribution at this early stage, developing over the Midlands and into Northern England. I envisage a rather cloudy, humid couple of days ahead. All pretty meh down here! Missed last weekends storms here too, feeling a tad disappointed, with the caveat that storms are rather unpredictable, so we hope current modelling is wrong and we get some unexpected developments.