AWD

Mmmm...... if I'm honest probably not the day to have an open carol concert! Strong to gale force winds, heavy rain and feeling cold, although if your on about Tuesday evening then it might just have passed over us by then, although blustery showers will still be around!

Friday has been downgraded a lot by the latest models thankfully, however, there is still the potential for gales to severe gales in our area, just hopefully nothing more than that! I see our Ian Fergusson has been tweeting about a low possibility of snow this week, although the storms have obviously been taking more of the headlines! Someone showed an interesting chart a minute ago in the model discussion thread, showed snow around Bristol, North Somerset on Tuesday! You never know! Lol!

Everywhere, from John 'O' Groats to Lands End will need to be prepared for the storm on Thursday night as IMO, anywhere and everywhere could and probably will see wind speeds capable of causing travel distruption, uprooting trees and structual damage to weak structures! Somewhere though will see dangerous windspeeds causing all of the above plus more/worse! This is where the uncertainty lies, but favoured locations for the worst in looks to be central UK, Northern Ireland and the Borders! Like I said initially though, everywhere will see windspeeds which will cause distruption!

FI and everything, but the ECM 0z throws up one mega powerful depression at T+240! Otherwise it's how you are! Nothing particularly cold and nothing all too mild! Around average, somedays slightly below, some slightly above! Should be plenty of wind and rain about for all in the next week or 2 though, as usual, the more so the more NW you are!

Having just read the Winter forecast from Positive Weather Solutions, they are basically writing off any chance of prolonged cold and snow for most of the UK, the exception being upland areas in the north! If their forecast comes to fruition, then expect a mild winter!

might be a bit late now, but can I request Bristol please?

I don't think anyones been expecting any snow in southern England for a while now this side of the new year! But that's to be expected with background signals and model progress! It's only one month, there's another two to go yet, with potentially more support from the background signals etc! Models to me, don't show anything particularly cold or particularly mild for the next couple of weeks! Fridays cold blast has been restricted to Scotland now, with the south staying average in terms of temps, maybe slightly above on some days! For most of the run the country is being bathed in uppers of 0c! Maybe slightly higher at times in the south, and slighty lower at times in the north! With depressions coming in off the Atlantic, it will all feel rather average out there! Cool in the wind and rain, pleasent enough in any sunshine, although frosts do look limited on this run! Things will change still yet anyway, but if you read the Meto further outlook, that looks like something similar to the way we seem to be going!

I think you mean with a cold stratosphere mate! A wam stratosphere would be good for cold potential futher down the line

The polar shot for the 9th and 10th on the 06z run as been somewhat watered down now! The -5c uppers struggle to get into southern England and any snow therefore would be reserved for areas north of the Pennines, excluding the welsh mountains! Still time for change though i expect this to be nearer the outcome! Over the next week to 10 days I expect Scotland and high ground of northern England, northern Ireland and Wales to get some decent falls of snow! Lower levels of England and Wales however would need a better shot than what the 06z shows for any snow!

according to the 0z, it doesn't really get mild as such until the 15th which is way in FI! The 9th and 10th have sub -5c uppers widely over the country, these then get shunted away east whilst we obtain a WNW flow over the UK, with some breezy conditions and uppers of 0c! The -5c uppers then clip back into east Anglia for while before a SW flow does start to bring milder air into the country, but as I said way into FI then!

Yes, but the north and west isn't the south! I thought we were talking about southern England here! I agree the north and north west will see snow! The -5c uppers barely gets into southern England before it's shunted away on Monday, but they do get there on Friday next week, quite comfortably with -6c and -7c uppers making an appearance in the south then too, so the snow risk is much more alive then than it is for anywhere south of the Pennines this Sun/Mon! However, as I said earlier, Friday is subject to change at the moment so caution is needed! Nevertheless, a very interesting and decent week coming up, especially given how poor all the main cold ingredients are! the welsh mountains would definetly come under the highest ground in Wales! The Brecons may get lucky too! Low level snow south of the Pennines won't happen, good elevation and it's a different story though as always!

I don't think anywhere south of the Pennines are going to see snow on Monday, except perhaps the highest ground in Wales, and the highest moors in south west England! On the 9th though, there is more chance of snow in southern England, however this is still a week away and will probably be downgraded into something like this weekend/Monday unfortunetly!

GFS 6z has two brief polar shots! One on Monday which would bring snow to Scotland and northern hills! Another for Friday which is a little more potent and has potential to bring snow a little further south, this carrying on into Saturday for Eastern Scotland and North Eastern England! I expect next weekend polar flow to be cut back to the one like this Mobday though once it edges into the reliable!

Check out the charts for the 9th though! They look more interesting, including some areas further south! Obviously that's FI though, so a little more hopecasting needed!

Currently 3.8c here! First proper frost of the season last night! Nice hard layer of ice on my car windscreen this morning! Cold and sunny now!

If, and obviously only IF, the GFS verified, then I would of thought the Mendips, Cotswolds and higher parts of Wiltshire would see something too!

Fancy a drive to Exmoor then?? Lol! With the latest model runs, especially the 18z, I wonder if we can squeeze a slight upgrade to that still! Here's hoping!

Think it's time to open up the regionals now! GFS 18z has the -5c uppers regularly on the south coast/in the channel next week producing a potent cold snap at both the beginning and end of the week nationwide! However, I think taking other factors into account such as high SST's around the UK and the tendacy for the GFS to overdo polar shots, I still would be very wary of any snow falling south of the Midlands for the time being!

Would the charts for the 9th deliver snow countrywide, thus including southern England? I only ask as the -5c uppers are comfotably in the channel? Obviously being a week away I don't expect this to verify anyway, and a more watered down version would probably materilise! Nevertheless, with all other signals against cold weather, the runs from the models tonight have been pretty much the best we can have!

it's the first 18z of the winter so far! ( sorry, couldn't resist )

Just remember though, stealing the thoughts now from Brians' latest buzz on TWO which I totally agree with, a lot of the winters between 1992 and 2007 were mild, above or way above average winters! TWO winter forecast is for an average winter, meaning that snowfall across many parts of the UK is still quite likely! He even says that he would be suprised if there wasn't at least one decent snowfall everywhere in the UK, including the south! So whilst not expecting a winter like the last couple, that doesn't mean that most parts of the UK won't get snowfall, because, if his forecast verififes, they would!

The 06z is unusual in that the flow is more WNW than NW, and as such the colder -5c uppers are actually over England and Wales longer than they are over Scotland on Monday! The flow does turn slightly more NW on Tuesday, but by this time the -5c uppers are in short supply! Let's see what the ensembles make of it!

Don't forget though that the Irish SST's are a lot higher than what they should be due to the mild Autumn we have had! Therefore showers towards Cheshire, Merseyside and Manchester are likely to have slightly milder air mixed into them when coming off the Irish Sea!

TWO winter forecast is apparently out today, but just been on the site and can't find anything! Leaving it late!

Southern snow?? What's that? Lol! At least the conditions are chilly/average at best in the south! A winter break in the lake district anyone?