AWD

-10c 850's touching Scotland at T +384 on the GFS 12z!! Roll on the upgrades! Lol!

850's look about average as the mean! Maybe slightly above! Typically between 0c and 5c but with such scatter it could be anything from cool to very mild! It does go to show though that the pattern from next week beyond is very up in the air! There is reasonable support for conditions to remain average to mild, but how far south and east the depressions get is anyones guess at the moment!!

and that's the London Ensembles too, so maybe suggestions that HP won't be as close as what the Op brought it!

Maybe some snow for Highland Scotland next week according to the 12z! A Pm airflow over northern Britian next Friday! Milder further south still! Some very mild days in FI, the 10c Isotherm not far away from the south west at times!

There is snow in the models!!!!!!! Yep, this time next week, according to the 12z GFS, the Cairngorm's and highland Scotland could get a brief period of snow! Lol! A Pm airflow for Northern Britian this time next week!!

If it means a colder and snowier January then I couldn't care less if the pattern we have stays up until Christmas, as long as we get somebcold and snow this winter, I couldn't care less when! IMBY January is often the most snowiest and coldest month on average anyway, and with encouraging thoughts from GP and other more knowledgable members on here for a more favourable pattern in the new year, I certainly won't be one of many members who will probably be slitting wrists if this pattern continues for the rest of the year!

Yeah we all know what the GFS FI is like, whether it be mild or cold it's FI and will probably be gone on the next run! It doesn't follow the Meto further outlook anyway! No need to worry about that for now anyway, at least the next couple of weeks show a gradual change to more unsettled, cooler and active conditions, so whilst it remains mildish overall, with temps average or slightly above, at least some decent depressions are possible!

Not too far in FI either so something to definetly keep an eye on, although you have to say that there's a good chance it will get downgraded as it comes into the reliable! Mild SWesterly winds then come in after, albiet briefly! 10c Isotherm not far away from the SW! All in all a much more mobile and unsettled spell being progged! More active weather may finally be just around the corner for all! Not sure I like deep FI though! A rather flat pattern with westerly winds, and the Polar Vortex pushed back up north into well.......... polar land!!

12z is suggesting some very strong winds for the 24th/25th for south west England, South Wales and Southern Ireland! All associated with a small but deep area of LP running along the English channel! Not a good time to go sailing of the Isles of Scilly!

May just be me feeling the cold more than others, but the last few days IMBY have felt really quite raw under cloudy dull skies! I've had me bubblehat and gloves on, and I ain't been the only person to either! Like I said though, may just be me!! Bloody cold now though!

May just be me but I don't see the 12z GFS as overly mild! No proper cold and no pattern evolving that would lead to cold but with the 0c Isotherm over us for good parts of the run, I can only see days like today again for many over the next couple of weeks! There are a couple of exceptions, this weekend has highe uppers over us, so temps would probably get into the teens quite comfortably, and the last weekend of the month have mild SW winds blowing up over us associated with a deep area of low pressure, so milder then too! Otherwise it's same old same old! Temps around average maybe just ever so slightly above further south, feeling cooler in the wind and on cloudier days! I'll definetly carry on wearing my coat, put it that way!

The 12z GFS actually roughly mirrors the Meto Outlook for the end of November! Somewhat more seasonal conditions with frosts and snow for higher ground in the north! Of course there is still great uncertainty for the end of November, but if the GFS were to verify, it would feel much more seasonal than it does now! Definetly not the worst output IMO!

First proper chill of the Autumn here so far! Temp currently 8c, lowest daytime midday temp for a long while here! Feels cold with the windchill too, certainly and Autumnal, dull day today!

GFS 12z has the 10c Isotherm over south east england on Monday, plus more notably, one massive split of the Polar vortex north of Scotland! The -5c Isotherm dissappears of the chart as it's so far north!

Thanks for that Aaron! Just another view from another forecaster! Must be something possible for him to see something of a possible pattern change!

Brian Gaze over on TWO on his "two buzz" page has an interesting quote!! He sees a possible tentitive pattern change mid November to colder conditions!! Would post link but on phone sorry! At least there is some uncertainty and possibilities from mid month onwards!!

GFS is still a mild run throughout though, regardless of the wind direction being easterly in FI. It even drags the 10c isotherm onto East Anglia before cooling down to just above average temps! However in FI on the GFS, europe and more especially eastern Europe does get some cold air dragged down and if FI verified ( which is unlikely admittedly ) and the GFS went a little further out towards the last third of November then that cold air could get dragged towards us on the easterly! All will change by tomorrow anyway, that's the best I can find for any sort of cold weather!

As looked as showery/thundery here as it has looked all summer! Some good looking shower clouds to the south!! Quite cool feeling without the sun around!

Very very brave man to stick by that!! With November fastly approaching, and an Atlantic dominated picture looking increasingly likely, I think a quick update and amendment will soon be needed!!

I got to admit, that's a pretty good forecast IMO! Only time will tell though!

I thought I would add my amatuer opinion on the upcoming winter! Is not so much a forecast as i have little experience in producing scientifically based LRF's! It's more obseving recent weather patterns and long range charts , along with nature itself, the way nature is currently acting and from personal opinions of a couple of experts I admire! I have taken into account a couple of weather related phenomans, such as the predicted La Nina, global sea temps and predicted warming and cooling and what's happening stateside ( jet etc )! November I expect to start off drier than average with temps average in the north, slightly above average in the south! As the month goes on I expect Atlantic based depressions to start making inroads, with wind and rain become promanent across the country, especially so in the west! This continues towards the end of November with a Atlantic showery flow establishing itself over the country, maybe bringing wintriness to Scotland but nowhere else! December I think will start of with the showery Atlantic flow but this will soon ease with blocking somewhere over the eastern side of the Uk/North sea, quieting things down and bringing a south easterly flow over the country! A prolonged dry, settled spell is what I'll go for in December, temps average in the west, slightly below average in the east! Towards the new year, I think a mild southerly then south westerly flow will tame over, bringing depressions north east over the country! Could be very md and wet in western and south western England! January, I think, will start of as December ended, mild and relatively wet! However, i think once again things will settle down with HP becoming established over Greenland or the Atlantic and a cold but dry flow over the UK! I think this could be the coldest spell of the winter, with cold air coming down from the north, giving "a wishbone effect" for the country, snow showers especially along the north and eastern coasts! Towards the end of January, LP will eventually erode the HP from the west/south west and maybe provide some battleground snow over southern England briefly before winning out and a average westerly regime taking hold, though still possibly cold enough for some snow in Scotland! Febuary, I think, will be predominetly westerly based, with some rain for all, but drier and brighter interludes! Temps overall slightly above average! Towards the extreme end of the month and into the beginning of March I think a short lived easterly will happen, providing some end of winter snow for southern and eastern England before a drier and warmer springlike system enroaches! Once again, this is just a overview of how I would favour things to go, after observing different weather related websites, science and nature! For a more educated LRF, ask an expert!!! To summarise, a fairly mild winter to come, but drier than normal! There will be cold spells but these will be very shortlived, apart from mid January when a prolonged dry cold spell cod occur! CET in November and December above average, January slightly below and Febuary and March again above average!! I am not expecting a prolonged cold and snowy winter, and i am a cold fan!!!

it's not THAT bad for coldies like myself, yes it may not be great but it's far from suggesting a mild and wet winter! I like cold crisp dry days just as much as snow, and that forecast as a bit of both in it! I can think of a lot more worse than that!

That the horse is going to be bl00dy cold in December??

Interesting quote from TWO here: High pressure in October, brutal cold? Posted Fri, 30 Sep 2011 06:17:52 The record breaking heatwave will continue during the next coupe of days, but through the weekend cooler air will be returning from the north west and by the early part of next week it should have made it across all parts of the country. What’s interesting is that it does look as though high pressure will start to build back across Britain next week, and things may well start to warm up again, though this will depend on where the high pressure becomes centred. The pattern which may be developing during the first half of October is one which some long range forecasters believe increases the chances of the development of high pressure cells over Scandinavia during the winter months. These can bring brutal cold to the UK from the east, more often during the second half of the winter than the first. I’ll be keeping a close watch on developments during October. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com Any expert opinions on this?

Twiddles thumbs faster than Lauren