AWD

06z GFS has two LP systems over the weekend! The first one at the beginning of the weekend crosses NNE over Scotland bringing gales and severe gales to the north! Then later Sunday and into Monday there is a smaller, but still quite potent LP over the north sea Belguim area, bringing strong winds to the south, and more especially south east of the UK! Also on Monday there is a brief, but rather potent pM airflow over the entire UK, with -5c uppers down to the south coast! These quickly get shunted east on Tuesday though, ahead of the next LP system in what looks to be a very active Atlantic dominated run! Until FI that is, when HP ridges up from the SSW and settles things down somewhat! Deep FI and HP brings very mild and settled conditions to the UK! A cold plunge into eastern Europe though!

Have not put heating on yet, and I don't think I will be in the foreseeable future! Live in a flat so it would have to be proper cold for me to put the heating on! On chilly nights, I just lean against the wall and make use of the neighbours heating!! Lol!

A sustained windspeed of 6mph currently, with a max gust of 25mph at 08.38 this morning! Temp currently a mild 13c, although windchill marking it down to 11.6c! Pressure 1004mb and falling, expecting rain later! Humidity 84%, dewpoint 10.1c

ECM goes more with the GFS and a wintery start for the north next week, mainly high ground though as the colder uppers don't make as much inroads into the UK as they did on the GFS! May not be a big freeze but at least it's something for some people! I still believe that the track of the LP at the weekend will determine what sort of pM shot we get afterwards!

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and with a low like the UKMO suggests, it has no way near enough strength to pull down the colder uppers and deliver a pM shot like the GFS does afterwards! We all know what the GFS is like with deep LP systems too. All eyes on the ECM tonight, will it back the GFS or UKMO?

If GP's forecast came to fruition that would be a good winter for me! That's why I'm not concerned at what looks like a probable month of no snow IMBY during December, as I hold faith that GP's forecast will prevail and a second half of winter will deliver! Personally this would be better anyway as I tend to do a lot of travelling over Christmas and new year, and with the long range signals swaying with a possible return of the Euro High, I wouldn't mind as it would be christmas and my mind would be on other things! Anyway I do have a hunch that something will happen this winter, I will be a frequent visitor to this site in the new year to see what possibilities develop! Am enjoying the much more active outlook anyway, something for most people in the models in the next couple of weeks!

and that's exactly what the 12z has done, moved it a tad further north, so although still a severe storm for Scotland, not quite as severe as what previous runs had it! Still, the exact track will probably change again in the coming days, although I expect only slightly!

GFS 12z still as -5c 850's covering the country this time next week! Should bring some low level snow to Scotland at least, as well as higher ground of northern England! All in association with the deep area of LP running NE past Scotland at the weekend! Strong winds in the North! Watch how this LP system develops and tracks in the coming days, as this will determine what kind of pM shot we get afterwards! A more southerly track and the pM airflow may get further south, a more northerly track and the pM airflow may just be reserved for Scotland! Intensity needs to be good too to drag the cold air down on it's western flank when moving NE into Scandi! Very little mildness in the reliable at least for now, much more seasonal active weather! Interestingly, FI is rather more unsettled than previous FI runs have been, especially for the north with more depressions running into Scandi!

Temp got down to 3.4c at 3.15am, now currently a chilly 4.2c dewpoint 2.9c and humidity 91% wind 0mph and pressure 1024mb

GFS 0z brings in a potent cold spell right across the UK around the 5th/6th/7th December with the -5c uppers down in the channel and the -10c uppers not far away from the north of Scotland! Could be some snowfall around the UK then! But it's still out of the reliable, so caution is needed, especially as the ECM as a greatly toned down version of any polar shot around that time! In the reliable, and with model agreement, both the GFS and ECM still produce some nasty wind storms across the country, with plenty of rain for all, and plenty of snow for the Scottish ski industry, possibly other northern hills! A cool and disturbed couple of weeks to come!

Curren temp here is 5.6c, feels a lot colder than that though!

A very good and interesting forecast, one that I hope is correct as I do prefer snowfall after the new year! Doesn't disrupt the Christmas period when I tend to travel a lot! Patience is the key for cold then, goes to show that a mild December doesn't mean winter is over, anything is possible in the new year! Thankyou netweather

Thats Mid December mate, not early December! Way out in the depths of FI, although I agree it would back the Met Office outlook trend, and netweathers winter forecast of a return to more milder conditions after the next couple of weeks! Anyway, the reliable shows a continuation of recent ouputs basically! As is well documented now, a much more mobile and stormy for some conditions setting in with wind and rain for all, some very strong winds possible in the north as deep LP systems pass northern Scotland!! Some pM shots look likely over the next couple of weeks, with one or two of these possibly strong enough to bring low level snow to Scotland and Northern England! For high ground in Scotland, some accumaltive snowfall is possible, with the Scottish Ski Industry looking good for the timebeing now!! South into England and more especially the Midlands southwards and your looking at more average conditions with the pM airflow not really making any input down here, so average in terms of temps, but wind and rainfall still plentiful, just not as strong or as much as the north!! Then we have a HP influence in FI with more settled and milder conditions prevailing, but that will chop and change over the next week so we will forget about that for now!! A good active set of charts from the GFS again this evening, some nice deep depressions to keep and eye out for in the next few runs!! Let's see what the ECM can throw at us later now!

Some people need to lower their expectations of what a UK winter will provide! There isn't going to be a Siberian freeze for the whole 3 months of winter year after year after year! Just enjoy whatever the British weather throws at us, and be patient to get your preferred weather type! We will see snowmageddon again one day, just don't know when! Anyway, things look far more active and interesting than they have done for a long while now! Not much difference in the reliable between the GFS and ECM this morning! Both show potential for widespread gales and possible damaging winds in the north! Everywhere should see some rain, useful rain at that in the south and east! Temps will be around average for early December! Some days a little below average, which will become cold enough for snow on high ground in the north, and some days will be a little above average! Brighter interludes are expected between depressions, where HP temporarily ridges in! A definate pattern change shortly commencing to what we have had for most of Autumn! A pattern change to more normal and average early winter conditions! Something for most people in today's output, except those wanting severe cold! However, winter is a 3 month season, so your time may come in the new year! In the meantime, enjoy the storms!

The 06z GFS provides some fairly deep LP systems over the NW of the UK with winds and rain for all, more so the further NW you are! With these LP systems, the -5c uppers gets pulled in over our shores, again more so to the north of the UK! With the strong winds and chilly uppers, the days that this happens will feel quite raw, especially to the public who have become accustomed to the mild Autumn conditions we have had so far! Otherwise it's how you are! Much more active than recently which is at least something more interesting to model watch!

Good to see you back!! Are you keeping your avatar pic for this coming season? Maybe a change to Ian Fergusson, our new number one now! Here's hoping for another Jan 2010

This year will hopefully be a reversal!!! With the proper cold arriving in the last half of winter!! Still very early days anyway!! Long time to go!

Not as cold as what I thought it might be this morning! Current temp of 10c, been like that for a couple of hours now! Looks like it's going to be a lovely sunny day today though! Pressure 1027mb, windspeed a dangerous 3mph! Lol!

I think I can say with reasonable confidence now that i will have a completely snowless 2011! Let's hope 2012 makes up for it!

Is there a fixed date the regionals come out? Or do we have to wait until snow is due? ( be waiting a while if that's the case )

The ECM 240hr chart would probably only produce snow for elevation in Scotland as the 850s are not all that high. ( between 0c/-5c ) javascript: viewimage(1); However, if the ECM went further, then as the LP moved away NE, we could drag down some colder uppers from the WNW. Sorry, link has gone AWOL! However, its the same chart Wolvesfan posted a couple of posts ago!

it does so all year round!!!!!

Patiently waitng for Nick Sussex's point score for snow/cold potential tonight! Must be the best one so far this season! It is FI though, so caution is needed!

I agree!!! Although metrelogically speaking it has been mild with temps above average, the feel to the weather IMBY at least as been quite chilly at times!! Some cold mornings and that windchill that makes your cheeks and ears shiver!!