AWD

Still to far Bl**dy north for me!! Interesting times nevertheless, the Met Office are keeping my hopes alive with their forecast!!

What's confusing me is that the Met Office are forecasting thundery showers coming up from the South West over England and Wales! I didn't think this was the case at all! I thought they were coming up from France heading into the South East and East Anglia! Totally different to what the Met are saying!! I haven't seen no recent charts to suggest any thundery activity for south west England, the West Country and Wales!! A very confused AWD!!

Whilst technically it may be unsettled, there is very little rain projected to reach the south and east, with pressure soon rising to the south west again, so whilst no heatwave, there will be many a pleasent dry sunny day in the south!!

Interesting Storm Risk forecast for the next 5 days in Bristol 10% Today 10% Tomorrow 31% Sunday 60% Monday 31% Tuesday Thats the highest I have seen this, so far this season. Now I know it will change and its extremely unlikely to verify, but considering any thunder potential is being advertised as an Eastern and South Eastern affair only I was quite surprised to stumble along to this, this afternoon. I really hope it does verify but realism as to set in. Shall be watching this evenings runs with hope and anticipation. Good Luck all!!!!!!!!!!!

Am I right in saying the ECM has it the furthest west/most widespread! And it's kept to it's guns for its llast few mdel runs now? Surely the ECM verifies over the GFS occassionally so it could possibly verify??

I agree!! The ECM is eye candy for early next week but unless one if the other 2 come on board soon then I'm treating it has just that, eye candy !!

If they came of there would be widespread storms, especially midlands southwards! And not just confined to the greedy East!!! Hopefully, with Monday only being 4 days away now, some model agreement might evolve today!! Towards the ECM please!!!

I hate these NW/SE splits!  Im seriuosly going to have to start looking at properties in the south east soon!!  Lol! Until there is decent model agreement between the big 3, then there is still all to play for!  ECM is the best solution for heat/thunderstorms, but its on its own so somewhere inbetween as to be favourite at the moment!!  Sunday being a widespread warm day, hot in the SE, cooler conditions arriving in the NW on Monday, still much of England and Wales warm and sunny though, again hot in the SE.  Tuesday cooler conditions spreading through Wales and Western England, still remaining hot in the SE until a thundery breakdown here late in the day.Taking all 3 operational runs into account, and also ECM/GFS Ensembles, this to me is the middle picture!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html Alas, we can only hope and pray!!!!!!!!!!

The BBC forecast wouldn't have been updated using the 12z data yet! They will wait until the ECM comes out then update! The forecast you saw will still be using this mornings data unfortunetly!

So would I! I only look for thunderstorms in summer! But if there isn't going to be thunderstorms, then warm/pleasent weather comes next! At least you can do stuff outdoors then rather than sit in watching bogs standard wet and windy, dull and dreary weather!! Plenty of time for storms yet, july and August will hopefully deliver something for us!! Fingers crossed!

Im in St George, Bristol! Been vey quiet here so far this year!! It all seems to develop over us and then move East, intensifying and becoming thunderstorms! It's been a very pleasent week this week considering we are supposed to be dominate by LP this week! Apart from a fleeting shower the only rain we have had is a few hours late monday!! As others have said, 12z has now pushed all the action further East, missing the UK altogether!! I'm sure things will change between now and Monday, but it would take a pretty big change/shift westwards for anything to affect us!! After all, Monday is only 4/5 days away now, so not a million miles away really!! Anyway, at least we can enjoy the sunshine, and there is a decent weekend coming up for us, after the rain early Saturday! Nice for Glastonbury and outdoor activities!! Enjoy it while it lasts I say!!

No

Admittedly my post might have been slightly IMBY, as having a deeper look, the GFS does keep the ingredients good for Eastern England, inparticulary East Anglia! However, it's nothing like the ECM which would provide a large part of the country with a light show on Monday/Tuesday! The GFS isn't good for Western and probably Central parts of the country! GFS has very little PPN over the south of the country! Like you said though, Monday onwards is far from decided yet, with different outcomes being brought up by different model runs so patience and hope is probably needed for now! I'll be looking for a westard trend in tonight GFS, and also hoping the ECM keeps it similar to it's earlier run!

Monday is very much an eastern affair! Im going to be so jealous of you lot!! Better get some booze in to drown my sorrows!! Lol! Some heavy showers here early this morning, otherwise it's been a fine, pleasent day today!!

The UKMO and GFS are having none of a thundery bang on Monday/Tuesday now, keeping the LP further north and the south gradually getting cooler but still warm and pleasent! What's it going to take to get a big bang nowadays!!!!

There are a load of showers in Central Southern England and The South East currently and they are intensifying!

Currently a line of showers through Wiltshire, East Somerset and Dorset! As these carry on moving east they could intensify and maybe produce something! Other than that I can't see too much at the moment! Looks like it could brighten up in Wales and the West as I can't see any further showers coming in here now!

Need the other two to come on board first before we can get excited with the prospect of Storms!! Hopefully the 06z GFS will edge towards the ECM and bring Mondays trough through more slowly allowing fo a big bang!! Outlook on all models is getting better by the day for heat lovers however!!

Thankyou very much! So simple really

I don't think many of us have had a storm around our area! We've been in a black hole this year! I agree about tomorrow, it looks like a few light showers in the morning before brightening up into a fine and predominelty dry afternoon! The showers developing further east along the trough thats bringing patchy rain to Western areas tonight and early tomorrow! I'm keeping a close eye on Monday. With all the heat this weekend i hope we get a bang to go with it. But I fear the east is best positioned though! Interesting times nevertheless!

Hey How do I go about changing my username? My current one is kinda cruddy thinking about it. Cheers

Estofex don't make much of it tomorrow at all! http://www.estofex.org/ :wallbash: Would love to be in Berlin though!!!!

I agree! It's all gone quiet in the West now! Not much building to my west either! Hopefully the sun can get something pepping up later!

That's a clean window for a First Great Western train! Lol!! Already had a number of heavy, squally showers here! Nothing more than that yet though! Hopefully something might happen today!