Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Unless I'm mistaken that ECM 216 chart would give some very low overnight minima with some snowcover still in place?

Yes that is a very good update for our region. Tomorrow evening and overnight is beginning to look quite tasty! Fantastic update from the METO for our region as well this morning; Headline: Cold. A little rain or sleet at times. Today: Mostly cloudy, although with bright spells developing, and with some occasional showery rain or sleet in some areas; perhaps a little snow in places later. The rather brisk, cold southeasterly wind will continue. Maximum Temperature 4 °C. Tonight: A few sleet or snow showers, mostly in the east of the region, and tending to die out later. Frost developing quite widely, along with some locally icy conditions. Minimum Temperature -2 °C. Sunday: Perhaps a few wintry showers near the coast early Sunday. Some bright intervals before thickening cloud brings snow to the north and west of the region late in the day. Maximum Temperature 3 °C. Outlook for Monday to Wednesday: More general snow on Monday, then rather brighter Tuesday and Wednesday with sunny intervals and snow showers. Very cold with hard overnight frosts. Issued at: 0400 on Sat 12 Jan 2013

That is a little bit simplistic I feel. There is no output this evening that suggests the cold weather is heading East any time soon, and I'm sure there is at least a risk of some snow on some of the output this evening for the Western fringes of the UK. This is the NAE at 48hrs out and clearly shows a snow risk for parts of NI and the Republic;

That NAE chart posted earlier looks like anywhere in Lincolnshire could be prone to some snow shower activity on Saturday night so don't get too down hearted!

Well if this latest forecast from the NAE; is anywhere near accurate (for overnight Saturday into Sunday morning), I don't think we will need to be worrying about a lack of snow here in South Yorkshire! I can definitely see why the METO have extended their warning to more inland parts of Yorkshire on this evidence.

People still looking for a breakdown in a week's time and I don't understand it. Lets just enjoy what we have coming as I reckon quite a few we will see some snow over the next 7 days. As Nick S says we can pretty much disregard most of the output post T96 and given that the full effects of the SSW are still to be determined I very much doubt the pattern over a week out will look the same by the time we get there. I wouldn't be surprised to see the length of this cold spell getting upgraded as the week goes on. We shall see...

Well I think we have now reached the stage where we can now relax a little in the knowledge that we know that a cold 'spell' is on the way. How cold, how long and how snowy that spell will be is obviously open to conjecture, but I am just looking forward to how it all unfolds. Taking the 18z op at face value (very dangerous I know!), it keeps the 850s at or below -5 IMBY from T36 out to the end of the high res output with countless snow opportunities, and with the majority of tonight's output showing a different variations on a similar theme, I for one will be enjoying this upcoming spell for all its worth. Hell I may even wax my sledge!

Well given that the NAE has now updated to show this Saturday evening; That seems like a fairly good forecast. It certainly shows the risk of some snow showers reaching Pennine areas and I suspect the signal for snow will be more marked nearer the event given the forecast 850s for that period.

Yes although not perfect, I would always have more confidence in the NAE output than the GFS at that range. I think it runs at a higher resolution. That band of snow moving South across our region on Monday is starting to grab my attention however. There could well be some disruption to the Monday evening rush hour if that pans out as modelled.

The NAE shows this for lunchtime Saturday; Potential for some snow showers coming in from the East coast which seems to tie in with the METO warnings that are out for the Eastern side of our region between Saturday evening and Sunday lunchtime. The METO warning mentions the risk of up to 5-10cms during this timeframe, but whether anywhere sees as much as that is open to question. North York Moors looks favourable at the moment. For those of us more inland, the potential for snow may not look great at the moment, but in my experience, once the proper cold arrives (on track for Saturday), snow opportunities could pop up from nowhere at short notice. I'm not saying that will definitely happen this time, but the synoptics certainly look promising, particularly from Monday onwards at present. Here's hoping....

Well it's all getting rather exciting isn't it?! In the red (mild corner) we have the GFS and the majority of it's ensembles and number one fan Ian Brown, and in the blue (freezing cold corner) we have the majority of the rest of the output, the METO, Steve M and the entire Netweather Forum! Who will prevail? There really is only one way to find out......stay tuned to the 12z folks! On a serious note, I noticed that somebody posted this chart earlier and it got me thinking; Is what determines the outlook for next week as simple as a race between whether the two highs link up first or the two lows win the race. I.E. if the Azores and Scandi highs link up we get the Atlantic or if the French and Icelandic lows link we get the freezer? Probably a very simplistic way of looking at things but it was just a thought! In terms of the comments regarding ECM and GFS outputs, I know some are saying that ECM is heading in the direction of GFS and vice versa, and I would not like to call it at this stage. I would say however that the METO seem extremely bullish about the cold / snow arriving next week, so that would be (tentatively) where I would put my money if pressed. The other thing that has got me thinking today is GP's comment from yesterday; Posted by Glacier Point on Yesterday, 11:56 in Forecasting Model Discussion If I could allay a few fears here.. The 10 hPa and 100hPa operational 06z still looks consistent with overall strat developments, and general signal for ridge in the NE Atlantic locale. t300 GEFS mean height anomaly very well defined, ridge signal eastern side Greenland and deep trough over Europe including UK. The operational GFS and some ensemble members maybe picking up a reasonable idea for shortwave development between Iceland and Greenland, which makes next week's forecast that bit more problematic. Clearly the quicker the cold uppers become embedded the better for snow prospects next week. Interestingly NOGAPS which had championed this idea has now binned it 06z. Just demonstrates the massive spreads that currently exist in the North Atlantic in the medium range and large scale inter-run disagreement in NWP. That doesn't alter the general trend here. Cold to begin this weekend, continued signal for a slight moderation in this before cold becomes more aggresive once more, timed for second and most significant downwell from the SSW. Note how the GEFS and also ECM ensembles begin to re-intensify cold beyond day 10. Bottom line - don't mistake a tendency to moderate cold next week (and undoubted model variability to expode that out of all proportions) with a failed cold spell. If we take GP's comments at face value, even if the GFS has the pattern correct in the 72/96h timeframe, we are surely not dead in the water from a cold perspective surely? The updated 6z GEFS whilst not brilliant IMBY do show at least the prospect of conditions that are conducive to a further cold / snowy spell with a couple heading down towards the -15 mark out in the extended range so all may not be lost. This chart from the end of the GFS 6z op is also not the worst chart in the world and could easily lead to a much colder scenario in the longer term; Anyway, that's my two pence worth. I could be barking up completely the wrong tree, and I have waffled on far too much, but all I will say is that this afternoon's 12z suite really will make for some fascinating viewing...

I think Daddy Bear needs to buck his ideas up!

Brilliant ECM ensembles. I know they are for Holland but we can't complain about those.

Yes I was surprised at the underwhelming forecast from Paul Hudson tonight. 'A few wintry showers near the East coast but nothing to get too excited about' was his quote (or something similar) for this weekend. I think we will see an upgrade from the METO in the next 24 hours for the end of the weekend and early next week given the output from the 12z suite for our region. The GFS 12z run is presently the least cold option, but as you can see from this data (for Church Fenton) based on that very run, the 850s (upper air temperature) are still conducive to snowfall (generally accepted to be -5 and below) between Friday night and Tuesday night so not bad at all; http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=EGXG Based on the remainder of the output, the real cold looks set to hit on Saturday, and whilst initially mainly dry, the outlook only looks like getting snowier from the East into early next week (unless we see a major turnaround in the current trend). Time will tell!

Yes, feeling much more seasonal today. The NAE should start picking up on any snow potential for our region at the weekend from tonight into tomorrow, although even at the 48 hour range nothing will be set in stone. I have a feeling the main 'snow' band may miss us to the South and we will be reliant on showers pushing in from the East coast, but as the forecast uppers seem quite potent, we could see some hefty convection kicking off later on Saturday and into Sunday as per the latest METO update for the Yorkshire region. Potentially exciting times ahead....

Once again if the 00z GFS op is as bad as it gets for coldies this morning, then we are in a SUPERB position. Setting aside the fact that the GEFS have moved quite markedly to a colder solution this morning, the GFS op shows conditions that are conducive to snowfall until at least the middle of next week IMBY. Bring it on I say!

All I know is we have a cold and potentially snowy weekend coming up and that is all within T120 folks. If we had cross model agreement at T96 showing a mild outlook, anyone urging caution re the output or generally cold ramping would be accused of desparation so regardless of the output post T120 I think we may have weekend coming up that most of us have been craving since November!

'Apparently a Netweather member phoned the Met Office earlier today to say there is an Easterly on the way. Don't worry there isn't'....'

So the ECM puts the cat amongst the pigeons with yet another solution! Sledge vs. Barbeque Who will prevail? Only one way to find out.....

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=151706 A couple of runs heading towards -15 in the extended range. Trend setters for what may come later in the month as a result of the SSW? We can but dream...

Well if the MOGREPS have it right, SSW will need to be amended to 'Sodden South West'! Lets hope not eh?! *runs off to do a solitary snow dance in a quiet corner*

I think the cold has just been delayed 24hrs on this run. Not bad at 168;

I think Ian is a closet coldie but just relies on the law of the sod for his predictions. I.E. whichever output is the mildest will be the likeliest to verify! Unfortunately that is often correct although we are in a completely different ball park to previous predicted cold weather failures such as December 2012 due to developments in the stratosphere, so I for one am quietly confident of a decent cold spell incoming. GFS is rolling...

Well if the 0z GFS verifying is the sum of all fears this morning, then I don't think we are doing too badly to be honest. Even this run brings sub -5 air (and in SE areas sub -10 air) from this coming Friday for almost all of England and Wales (sorry Scotland and Ireland!) up until when the low res section of the output automatically powers up the jet. I'm not saying the GFS is incorrect, just that we should be suspicious of it given the continuing SSW event. The ECM output is obviously much more favourable in terms of deeper cold and snow but is also not infallible at the 144/168 range, so it's just another case of more runs needed... Regardless of the above, I do think we can now safely say that we are heading for a colder period of weather from the second half of this upcoming week onwards, as shown by the ensembles below but the longevity of this spell, and how cold and how 'white' remains open to conjecture at this stage; What I would also say looking at those ensembles for my area is that even the extreme mild solutions in FI a la the control run do not quite reach the dizzy heights of the upper air temperatures forecast for this coming Tuesday, so the only way is down from there!

Well the GFS 12z brings sub -10c uppers and snow chances IMBY for at least a few days into next weekend so if that comes to fruition and we don't get any more cold weather this winter I'll be one happy (snow) man!