Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Not bad at all. The Op was clearly on the mild side of the ensembles and I'm sure some of the 12z GFS commentary would have been vastly different had it gone the same way as some of those colder members. There is no change to the trend since this morning in my opinion.

Hilarious! Winter is over...

We may not get the deep cold and copious amounts of snow that most on here want but the increasingly implausible suggestions as to why such cold may not arrive is becoming laughable! Given that the Northern Hemisphere is currently in winter and bearing in mind the size of the landmass of the UK, I would imagine that the chances of a forecast solar flare causing our tiny island to become / remain mild are miniscule, and that is being generous! Why would this flare pick on the UK and not the rest of the Northern Hemisphere? Or is it being suggested that this flare will cause the early onset of spring across the entire hemisphere?! It's all a conspiracy I tell ya... Eyes down for the 12z...

Re the caution posts...I don't really see the need. If coldies want to get all giddy with the output when things are looking good and then suicidal when things go the shape of the pear surely that's their choice?! Let's be honest, no amount of nanny state type posts pointing out the pitfalls of general over excitement and past failures is going to make a blind bit of difference anyway...its human nature. For what its worth all I have seen this morning is a continuation of the general theme that a colder more settled spell of weather will be upon us by the end of the week, and with the SSW forecast to continue into January who knows where we could be cold weather wise in a couple weeks time? Fascinating stuff....

Being slap bang under a high pressure in early January is no bad thing though so even if the 6z verifies it would feel very seasonal with widespread frost and fog and hopefully some sunny crisp days to boot....lovely!

All these quotes and phrases being bandied about urging caution etc remind me of some of the inane sayings you get in the football world, it is quite amusing! Here are some for the model watching fraternity... 'It's a winter of two halves' 'Lets take each GFS run as it comes' 'We have a massive 12z coming up this weekend' And then there is the whichever run is showing the mildest conditions 'could be the trendsetter' brigade There's the we have been let down before crew And then there's the wait til T96/72/48/24/there is three feet of snow IMBY and it's -25 outside before I'm getting excited gang And then theres the don't you remember when the (delete as appropriate) ECM / UKMO / GFS / spotted 'x' pattern first in year 'y' so we can't rule it out blah blah blah massive... The fact is if you just have a relaxed attitude to model watching and look at the bigger picture rather than hanging on each run, there is alot less emotion involved. We have an SSW event happening as we speak which is GUARANTEED to provide some serious cold somewhere at our latitude during the next few weeks so lets see if we get lucky...All aboard Chiono's Wheel Of Fortune! PS...here's some model stuff to keep my post on topic...looks like it 'could' get a little chilly IMBY.

So is anybody remotely excited about a few snow flakes in the heavier showers tomorrow night into Sunday then?!

Well the positive for me today is that next week is looking dry with high pressure taking charge (at least for the Southern half of the UK), and if we can get the high pressure in place, it may well move into a more favourable position (for cold) further down the line. The 6z really is a bag of nails for cold prospects but compared to the ECM (which is showing hints of a pattern change) I know which output I would trust. Indeed, a minority of the ECM 0z ensembles put the near continent back in the freezer in the extended range and they could be the trendsetters; I have a feeling the 12z suite may throw up a few (cold) surprises this afternoon with some ice covered (eye) candy for us to get our teeth into. That's my positive spin anyway, and even if we do get a tropical yawn-fest later, in the words of Yazz 'The only way is up'....

*Straw Clutching Mode Activated* I know it was mentioned a while back over on TWO that the Saturday 00z model suite is quite regularly the mildest set of models of the weekend if not the week, with a gradually colder / cooler picture returning as the subsequent model runs roll out. Now I have no idea why this should be the case, or whether it will happen on this occasion, but it does seem strange that the models (the operationals anyway) appear to have 'flipped' overnight, which seems to go against alot of the favourable teleconnections being referred to yesterday. I am quite sceptical of this myself, as I cannot see why a milder bias should appear on a Saturday morning, although I would say that on at least two or three occasions, this trend was apparent. *Straw Clutching Mode De-activated* Of course that could all be alot of 'hot air' (pardon the pun) and on this occasion the models could have picked up on a genuine new trend regarding a flatter more northerly tracking jet etc. Watch this space....

That chart would give frost and fog (at least to the southern half of the UK) surely? Quite chilly really.

I think the striking thing for me on the 18z GEFS (for my area at least) is that there is a spread of around 12c in the uppers at just T96 with anything from -6 to +6 being modelled; Now whilst the further North you go the more likely you will be influenced by air from the North / East at that time frame and the reverse further South, as has been mentioned earlier in this thread, until we know what direction that Atlantic Low is headed after mid week, it is just impossible to make any sort of forecast for the Christmas period.

Yep. There cannot be more than 500/600 miles between the +10 and -10 uppers on that chart. It's gonna be a tough one to call although the way this winter has panned out so far you would have to favour a milder outcome at present. As ever more runs needed....

Well to my eyes, nothing has changed since yesterday in the sense that a 'green' Christmas would not be a surprise in the slightest given the current output, and today's 6z GFS ensembles do not scream cold either; However, all the time the blocking remains to our North and East, any slow down or amplification of the Jet means we could be in business in terms of a cold set up at a relatively close time frame, so I would agree - a big call from Peter Gibbs today as it was from Paul Hudson last night. The modelling of the interaction between the block to the East and the Atlantic in what is clearly a titanic struggle has caused much confusion for the models over the last few weeks, and will continue to do so until the outcome is decided. I would put the odds on a 'white' Christmas (be that frost or snow) at around 40% at the moment, with an average to mild Christmas looking slightly more likely. Obviously there is a third outcome that we are left in a no mans land for the foreseeable and through the Christmas period, without any real Westerly or Easterly influence, although that would probably lend itself to the mild / average camp. All very intriguing. Lets see what the 12z's bring...

You are correct in what you say taking those charts in isolation at face value but I think its the overall trend and the bigger picture we should be concentrating on. For example the lowering of heights to our south and the reorganisation of the blocking to our north and east. I certainly think a new trend is emerging in this regard and tomorrow's 0z suite should make the picture a little clearer.

Well Paul Hudson virtually ruled out a white Christmas for Yorkshire this evening on Look North...I bet he is sweating just a little after that ECM 12z run!

I see where your coming from but today's GFS 6z (to be taken with bucket loads of salt granted) seems to tie in quite nicely with Ian F's comments from yesterday afternoon regarding the METO 10-15 day prognosis. We shall see...

Lol how much did you buy?! Things look bleak at the moment for cold weather fans I will admit but there is so much despondency in this thread with the 'zonal' looking charts and the mild long range forecasts that a cold snap may appear at relatively short notice and surprise us. The ECM in particular was not the worst run in the world with heights dropping to the South towards the end of the run but what will be will be.

The temperature is actually rising slightly here due to a bit of high level cloud. Up to 0.7c from 0.4c around an hour ago. No sign of any fog yet though.

Interesting little feature in the Azores region at 192 on the ECM. Will it help to lower heights in that region or just ride over the top?

That's the spirit! The troops will be rallied now! Azores High...Icelandic Low...Gulf Stream...Zonal Express...your boys are going to take one hell of a beating! Now i'm just off to go and find a straw to clutch...

I fail to see how we will have to look west or south west for our weather for the next few weeks when only last week T72 was being described as FI. Yes we may have a week or so of 'zonal' type conditions to come but there is enough interest in the charts at present to make any medium term weather prediction very brave indeed.

Posted by Glacier Point on 06 December 2012 - 08:47 in Model Forum Archive As if NWP didn't have enough on its plate with the disturbance to the PV, MJO forecasts consolidating on a phase 2 projection. That will expose the GFS in particular (it has a large bias to tropical convection in the longer range) to greater pressure to turn the jet northward over Iberia. This will be a false bias given that the GWO is in phase 8/1 - and this is the superior measure. That lobe of the pv cut off over NE Siberia also rolling around like the preverbial loose cannon. GEFS H5 day 10 a reasonable depiction however (huge snow potential btw): Substantive ridge between Greenland / Iceland / Svalbard. Tonight's CPC 8-14 dayer will pretty much look like this. That will keep the jet well to the south and only when the ridge pulls fsr enough west will it be able to come up from the south. Always the risk however of shortwaves, but these likely to maintain our cold pool in situ by advecting the cold air westwards. Stick with your ensemble means!!

Cold air in to North East England by 180 with the Atlantic nowhere to go but SE.

-5 uppers moving West across the North Sea at 153...

The timing of your quote after 4wd's videos cracked me up! 'Mods - North West thread now please. No more being subjected to videos from the snowy North Eastern contingent please' lol! 2.6c partly cloudy and breezy here.