-
Posts
5,277 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
4
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by blizzard81
-
It's become clear over the last week or so that they haven't got a clue about December.
-
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So am I correct in saying the expectation is for a 'mainly' cold December, followed by a relaxation of the cold towards the end of December into the new year. Then the main course from mid Jan? -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Top left hand corner of the chart gives the answer. Winter of 89/90. -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That chart led on to one of the mildest winters I can remember. And that's saying something. -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not saying its 'the day after tomorrow' type weather but I think it will be cold. Particularly under any clear skies at night. My reference being to the UK only. -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Great summaries Kold. You've just said everything I was thinking -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Unfortunately the control agrees with the op. Never a good sign. I know from bitter experience never to rule out an outlandish ecm op when it goes against cold. -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Any clues as to what transpires after this? Assuming the MJO signal is correct. -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A good start to the 12z runs. Icon has made a major shift towards the ecm op at day 7 over the eastern US seaboard compared to it's 00z run of this morning. It is now going for that major amplification. Look at that warm air advection heading up towards the west of Greenland. -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Something also tells me that there was a large uptick in solar activity at the time. Talking of which....... No, I won't go there. -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I agree. It is a spoiler that acts as a block to any 'proper' cold air from getting to our shores. The latest extended ecm ens for debilt highlight this. They don't offer much excitement and temps and precipitation trend upwards towards the end. -
Model output discussion - Winter approaches
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I generally find that no news is bad news on this subject lol. -
Model output discussion - Winter approaches
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Commentators curse! -
Model output discussion - Winter approaches
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good news? Or an anti-climax? -
Model output discussion - Winter approaches
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model output discussion - Winter approaches
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model output discussion - Winter approaches
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the weariness is due to the EC46 being a little premature with it's wintry givings. I also look avidly for that negatively tilted atlantic trough scenario and it has to be said, that is the trend of today. The trend has got stronger through the day. -
Model output discussion - Winter approaches
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model output discussion - Winter approaches
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed. However, I saw the comments re meto changing their outlook so had a look for myself. I don't think it has been revised 'that' much to be honest. -
Model output discussion - Winter approaches
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If the ecm ext ensembles take a nose dive this evening then....... It's game back on. -
Model output discussion - Winter approaches
blizzard81 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion