Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

blizzard81

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,277

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

 Content Type 

Everything posted by blizzard81

  1. blizzard81
    Yes I certainly take the cfs with a huge pinch of salt.
  2. blizzard81
    Last couple of cfs runs has gone into the slightly warm category for December after being average/normal for a very long time.
  3. blizzard81
    I suppose we could say there is an element of 'the big unknown' with regards to the modern day climate.
  4. blizzard81
    Thank you. I think we need to keep hoping the nina event isn't too strong but I notice your interesting point about a central based one as well as the arctic ice loss. Lots to chew over and digest which is all part of the fun of course.
  5. blizzard81
    I don't suppose you know of any cold or at least half cold UK winters that coincided with a strong Nina?
  6. blizzard81
    There is a positive in the sense that it is quite a marked improvement on September's update for early winter. There is also wiggle room for a further improvement on the next update in November.
  7. blizzard81
    I agree. The medium to longer range modelling seems to be firming up on a more persistent negative AO signal for the rest of October. If this turns out correct then it certainly won't harm our winter prospects.
  8. blizzard81
    October 2013 was very similar though and most know how that proceeding winter evolved.
  9. blizzard81
    Just saying
  10. blizzard81
    Amazing warmth pushing right up north over the US eastern seaboard by mid October. It penetrates high up into the arctic. Would this be a good omen/increase the chances of a possible strat November Canadian warming?
  11. blizzard81
    Best and most realistic post I have seen for a long while on this forum.
  12. blizzard81
    Ha well bitter experience says we certainly can't rule that out
  13. blizzard81
    Many thanks for that Crewe. That isn't too shabby either. I've seen much worse December anomaly charts.
  14. blizzard81
    Thanks for posting this Crewe. Do you have the chart for December?
  15. blizzard81
    Impressive hot pool enveloping the vast majority of the US by day 6.
  16. blizzard81
    Indeed. There is some level of support. Toppler looks like the form horse at the moment but there is time for this one to upgrade somewhat. Getting to that stage in the next day or two when we we need to see gfs and ecm ops consolidate on that amplification at day 9.
  17. blizzard81
    We certainly can't trust the ecm ops at days 9 and 10 with regards to amplification. If more and more gfs ops back it up then we can become more confident. Unfortunately the gfs 00z op backed away from it at days 9 to 10.
  18. blizzard81
    Many thanks for that.
  19. blizzard81
    Indeed. The debilt ones certainly haven't updated yet for some reason. Typical.
  20. blizzard81
    Please see my reply to Mr Holmes.
  21. blizzard81
    Because we see a transition from quite a zonal 6 - 10 chart (see attached) to a much drier 8 - 14 day chart which also gives more chance and indeed hope of a scandi high forming. Please note the words 'chance' and 'hope'.
  22. blizzard81
    About time one of these cold blue control runs came off.
  23. blizzard81
    Just to add to the more upbeat mood in here :)
  24. blizzard81
    Voilà - Never give up hope!
  25. blizzard81
    Things do indeed look a little grim. We can only comment on the output. However, after 16 years of watching the weather models, I do have a crumb of comfort. Sometimes they all pick up a signal then drop it only to pick it up again. I've seen it many times before. I wouldn't be surprised to see a much more amplified 12z ecm op run in the next hour.
×
×
  • Create New...