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blizzard81

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Everything posted by blizzard81

  1. blizzard81
    Isn't that the cfs?
  2. blizzard81
    Anybody got any predictions for the 12z's? More of the same? Upgrades? Or worse than what they are already showing?
  3. blizzard81
    You would think today's 6z 144h chart for next Tuesday would be more accurate than yesterday's 168h chart for the same time. Lets hope so because the 144h chart shows the trough to the west showing a significant negative tilt when compared to yesterday's 168h chart which showed it positively tilted. To anyone who isn't sure what negative tilt refers to then just think of the trough doing a limbo dance
  4. blizzard81
    Who tweeted that? If true, then yep, good question as to why the models are missing it.
  5. blizzard81
    Much frustration on here this morning and is it any wonder? Most winters since 2010 have been a bore fest so the gnawing of teeth is very understandable. As Anthony has already mentioned, it's going to be interesting to see if the meto extended gets revised soon.
  6. blizzard81
    Ext ecm debilt ensembles not as encouraging as yesterday's. Uptick in the mean temps and rainfall towards the end. Looks to me like the ecm ens are advertising a sinking Sceuro high. Not ideal for coldies heading into December. For this reason, I am hoping against hope that the gfs ens have a better grip on things.
  7. blizzard81
    Yep, I'm liking the 'ridgy' theme of today's output. Lets hope this continues on tomorrow's modelling. Who knows? The output tomorrow may be even more ridgy .
  8. blizzard81
    And again for next Wednesday.
  9. blizzard81
    Runs are looking a little more ridgy in the north atlantic on today's runs compared to yesterday. Compare yesterday's 06z run for next Tuesday to today's.
  10. blizzard81
    Ext Ecm ens for debilt. Not exactly mind blowing but I've seen worse as we enter December.
  11. blizzard81
    It is way too early to make any firm predictions about December at this stage, no matter how knowledgeable or experienced you may be. We are still two weeks away from the beginning of December. The met office are still second to none imo. Nowhere near perfect by any means but still the most accurate. They have been gunning for a fairly cold first half of December for a while now. I take great comfort from that.
  12. blizzard81
    Suddenly though by 216h the pv to the north west takes on a very familiar daunting look.
  13. blizzard81
    GFS just about still holding its ground. I agree with Crewe just now.... A slight step in the wrong direction. I remain hopeful though.
  14. blizzard81
    I wish lol. On the other hand...... Never say never
  15. blizzard81
    Meanwhile the 18z seems even more bullish about the amplification in our neck of the woods. I'm hoping for a repeat of the very rare victory GFS had over ECM during Xmas 2005 that I mentioned earlier.
  16. blizzard81
    You must have read my mind as I was posting that lol We certainly know that it never seems to work both ways huh? The law of sod in all it's horrid glory!
  17. blizzard81
    Lets hope the latest run is as inaccurate as the previous few weeks and it's constant touting of raised heights to our north west for the second half of November. Absolutely no sign of raised heights to our north west. I think the ec46 is struggling..... And not for the first time.
  18. blizzard81
    If my memory serves me correctly, the GFS nailed the Christmas easterly of 2005 whilst ECM was having none of it until it backtracked at short notice. This was an uncannily similar evolution to what the GFS is gunning for now.
  19. blizzard81
    Most classic scandi highs have the vortex to our north west
  20. blizzard81
    Some trends today on some operational runs to build pressure over scandi. It would be great to see these tentative trends build into something more certain. A scandi high as we approach the end of November would be my ideal synoptic going forward into winter proper.
  21. blizzard81
    Yep, day 7 is critical. Ecm day 7 highlights what you are referring to. What is that energy to the west going to do? Fast forward to day 10 and we do start to see some propensity for energy to head south east. Lets see what the 12z runs bring. Fascinating as ever.
  22. blizzard81
    Is this good or bad for UK cold prospects?
  23. blizzard81
    Cheers for posting that. It is an improvement on October's update.
  24. blizzard81
    Cheers but do you have the mean Z500 anomaly chart for the 1st November?
  25. blizzard81
    That chart is dated 1st October. Out of date now I suspect. There must have been an update on the 1st November?
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