zubzero

I doubt it. Even if that chart come off and went to plan for cold, any affects whould not transpire until late January, early February.

That's nearly a carbon copy of my thoughts on how things will play out into the New year. I hope the signal builds over the festive period.

We just had a very cold spell without the aid off any SSW. Way to much emphasis is placed on the chances of us getting cold causedby one. As there are so many other factors at play to. So far this Winter is running 2.8C below average. The current normal wet and windy phase of Winter may last until the dawn of time as some proclaim. My guess going by the longer range ECM, is pressure will slowly fall in southern Europe with Highe pressure becoming more likely over the UK(mid lat blocking) then if our luck is in it will ridge north in time. As ever more runs and time will tell. Merry Christmas

Why whould they? All weather models are Global. I've seen noaa disregard the US models loads off times.

A forecast iike that imby would be all my Christmases come at once a 48 hour blizzard and about 65 cm of snow.

It's the super annoying heights to south/SE until they lower I can not see anything much cold wise apart from the odd cold plunge for those In the North/NW

Sadly the one place I'd like to see the most uncertainty is the high pressure in the med-southern Europe area. Until pressure drops there, it going to be very difficult to get decent cold in away from Northern areas of the UK.

The fiendish Euro High ( Henchmen of the "Destroyer of Cold Dreams" The Bartlett High) is trying to foil our cold hero the Greenland. High. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=0 Find out next week what happens as our hero seeks the aid of his side kick The Mighty Scandinavian High pressure Aka the Beast. To seek aid to find the legendary gauntlet of Sudden Stratospheric Warming. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=code&mode=10&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

Main fly in ointment to my untrained 👁, is the signal for pressure to rise I the western med area can be a pain to get a decent cold spell established though not unheard off. My guesscast whould be for any cold over the Christmas-New year period to be from the North or Northwest rather then the east. Whatever happens the weather and charts if you like cold are 10 times better than they normally are. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 Charts showing a trend for high pressure over the Med.

Yeah that's rubbish maybe on the continent when a big Scandinavian High pressure has set up, but not for an Island next to a massive warm Ocean.

Been snowing here (Cambridge) for about 6 hours about 10cm

Would be a nice groundhog day

Maybe it says the UKMO run is 10km and that's what it is so I assumed it was right.

It tells you on meteoceil at the bottem of each model ARPEGE is 10km resolution for Europe and 0.5 for the world. GEM is 15km for the World. Ect

The majority of cold spells are like this away from favored coasts and hills. Most of the UK is rubbish for snow takes an age to get cold enough, then its mostly dry or when there is some precipitation about some fly in the ointment will crop up, like a warm sector for example. It's annoying but to expect anything better is wishful thinking sadly.

Hello Joe. Sadly its because 95% of Charts generated in Winter only show snowmaggeden bombs booms whatever, and other cringe terms, there is at them time frames. Even with cold about like now it's very dry and stable away from windward coasts. And the boom channel low screaming north easterly charts are still in lala land at 5 plus days

Meto at T156 is a classic https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=156&mode=0 Better then the normal 10 day classic but still might as well be an age away that it will come of like that. Though eventually we will get a classic chart at T0.

Its been going for a while but only goes to t90 at 06z and 18z https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php

Hello the postage stamps are here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/mogreps.aspx?run=na&pschartname=mslp&charthour=0

Big snow event in the south in lala land Enjoy the eye candy while it's there be gone in 5 hours

Yes the UKMO makes much less of the low approaching from the SW then the GFS dose. The GFS is less cold and snowy then the 18z was, but will probly be different again in 6 hours. Until the track of this low is resolved its hard to guess what way this cold spell will go.

Nice user name. So much blocking being shown across the models, its pointless taking much notice of any details for now, and leave that for the higher resolution models to resolve closer to the time. Let's hope this is the beginning of a classic.

At last, the Winter of cold rain is over. Roll on April showers/T-storms

Classic seesaw zonal pattern on the GEFS Meteociel - Diagrammes GEFS WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Hints in the latter stages of it settling down with frost and fog becoming more likely.

If you want to learn the models I'd focus on the ens, in the 5+ day range its pointless trying to pin down any details on individual charts 10+ days away. Use high res models in the 24-48 hour range even then its hard to pin down. Snow events /Thunderstorms ect. With any great detail.