R.P. McMurphy

Ahhh, I see, No sorry at the time I was referring to the predicted storm which it seems to pick up very weel, even a week in advance. No need to apologise Nick, just mis-communication.

All the signals are there for cold to take over shortly and into the new year. Any mild or warmer weather has dissappeared, quite a turn around from just a week or so ago. Have a feeling this winter will be one to remember!

You wrote it off last week !

Good lord, mother nature at her most powerful (maybe not her most, but you know what I mean) I'm not liking this upcoming storm, it looks immense and powerful, with i'd say more in the way of sustained strong wind. Have already warned family members.

Would love to bank this run now for Christmas. ECM going for a White Christmas for most Northern areas, from the 24th and the 25th running into the 26th.

No doubt about that Matty. 100mph widespread and 80-90mph across NW England. It wouldn't be pretty.

The OP has it at 940 Travelling on Christmas Day is going to be a worry.

Hi BFTP, It's certainly looking like a horrible period coming up over Christmas, wet, cold & windy - Couldnt get any worse ! Just touching on your point regarding the W / NW - Why do you think this is? I don't see much besides a lot of rain & it extremely windy, and perhaps wintry over hills.. Cheers,

That is disgusting. As other members have mentioned, if that were to verify, coupled with a Full Waning Moon.... Eeeek.

Thanks Ian, It's worth keeping an eye out for now... Albeit FI, but cannot be ignored.

It's not too hard to imagine, especially with the active systems out west. I think we will see more in the way of LP systems pushing though quite rapidly as we head towards the big day, the question is, will it get cold enough to snow? We need to see more of this getting colder.

The models were also predicting the quite large storm we had a few weeks back at least a week in advance, and it verified perfectly. I also Echo Nick's thought's in his above post.

Yes Nick, That would be some force there, very windy indeed, wouldnt like to be on top of the hills during that. UKMO looks to be onto something.

Well there is hope! http://primemag.me/photos-snow-covers-areas-cairo-suez-alexandria/

Yup thats what we need for some sustained cold. PV break up into 3 parts will do nicely.

Good post Crewe, first thing we need to see is that HP in the Arctic, this should shred the PV and allow a much colder pool pour towards Europe...Good signs today from the Models.

Zzzzz for Christmas Day at the moment... Feeling chilly, windy & unsettled....

T192 is horrible if it's cold weather you are after... Euro HP.

Agreed. I dont see what the excitement is here... it's certainly not enough to wet my appetite anyways... While that PV remains that strong, were going to get little if any in the way of snow & real cold.

What is NW'erly about that chart? Or am I missing something here?

If you look where the PV is at the moment, it will give you a good idea why.

While is it obvious there are many factors to determine a weather forecast, there is also a significant link between a strong Polar Vortex and mild winters. A strong PV during winter is the most common form, but when this becomes pertubed or becomes weaker, the flow of the air becomes weaker, and thus it generally goes north and south rather than east and west. This allows cold air to spill into areas, such as Europe, while warmer air is carried into the Arctic, and thus allows generally stormier weather, wetter weather, and with the cold, generally means snow for areas, again, such as Europe. This is why we are best to look North and see HP forming in the Arctic, which most people will know it as NAO (Negative Arctic Oscillation) which allows cold Arctic air to flow into mid-latitudes of Europe and many other areas... If the PV is strong, it mainly confines the colder air to higher latitudes much closer to the Arctic and surrounding areas... So in saying this, the PV has a huge role in determing a milder winter, to a colder winter, which is why if any cold synoptics are showing in FI, but the PV is solid as a rock, it generally won't come off, hence a couple of weeks back, where the milder air crushed the North flow to oblivion and confined it to a 15 hour event or so. Had the PV been weak and pertubed, it would probably have been a different story all together, as much colder air from the Arctic would have fought hard against the Milder flow... It's still early in winter, but.... At the moment, it's a strong PV = milder weather.... For now. But I will stress again, there are many other factors that determine a cold flow, but the PV is a huge, huge part of it.

You couldn't be more right... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2520753/Chinese-boyfriend-jumped-death-girlfriend-insisted-going-clothes-shop.html#ixzz2mzqmN3wq Onto the models and we really need to see the PV distrupted in a big way... No distruption = no real cold.

Yes Steve, also some signs of some Vortex Pertubation, along with the building HP at NP.

I don't see any change for this week, next week is another matter as it's well into FI. We need to look north at the PV - at the moment it's like concrete, solid in it's position with no sign of pertubation. Until we get that lump splitting, and it heading N/S, we dont have much change coming, and think this pattern will just continue until it does.