R.P. McMurphy

Was looking forward to this, but seeing as it's animals included, and that image you have posted, I think i'll give this a miss, too distressing & wan't to remain ignorant to it.... Thanks though !

Lusty Glaze, Crantock & Perranporth beaches for me.

Yes, picked up earlier by the latest models. Your area and Pennines plus NI too... Good luck !

Global Warming is such a silly thing. I don't give much time to it to be honest. 4.54 Billion Years the Earth has been here.

John, 500mb isn't that far away either, although the 500mb isn't gospel. Reasoning for looking at charts deep into FI = Nothing in the shorter term pre-11th this month which shows any changes from the current wet & windy weather. Why would I want to post charts of the same thing over and over, which is quite boring? I also believe in looking at charts over +240... Trend spotting, dont really want to keep saying this as getting boring, but that's what it's for, not to be ignored because some members of Net Weather say so? We could be REALLY pedantic and keep this to +12 hours of charts in this thread, because at +24 they have been wrong in the past, so should be stop looking at +12 now and get back up from 500mb?

I know people keep banging on about the same old thing, why we are looking at Low-Res etc... It's quite simple, it's called Trend Setting. When the GFS for the past 3-4 days run after run keeps amplifying something in FI along the same pattern, it's called a trend, and one which should be noted, watched & followed. Albeit it is Low-Res, sure... But that's not to say it cannot pick up on signals, which it clearly is doing, so I dont understand why we should completely ignore it. If Low-Res was showing Atlantic dominated weather all the way to +384, it would be "Set in Stone".... This is the model thread, and all models, no matter how dire they are, or how far they go out, are there for discussion, and members can post what they like when they like with their own interpretation (Unless it's a clear Bias, which is just wrong)...

GFS once again shows why we should be trend setting into FI. Frosty, myself and a few others have been banging on about this for some time now... You can't argue with what a chart shows, no matter what your preferred weather is. The 12th is also showing some potential:

Well the wind must be doing something, especially in Crewe, as Kings Grove School part of the roof has blown off !

This is true. Too many times have I seen posts from Ian F stating Cold, then Mild, then Average, then Cold, then Mild... Don't get me wrong, he obviously know's what he's talking about, but whether MOGREPS does is another question.

Lovely chart & deep into FI - but the GFS has been showing something consistent for the second period of January for some time now... It's all about trend spotting... Nothing for coldies to shout about within the next week or two anyways, so can only look to FI i'm afraid.

Should have added this.... As someone once said... Get Set, It's Coming...

Not bad charts this morning for Coldies towards the middle of the Month... This might give a few surprises for some... 850's Support Snow Risk: Ending with a cold NW Feed, snow showers, feeling cold; So still looking good and ties in with the latest Met Office thoughts for the second half of the month, albeit maybe a few surprises before then ! Would post more, but maybe later as I am still half asleep. P.S - Obvious Troll is Obvious Troll... Don't feed it, and it will go away. Ignore

Can't see anything until 17th onwards to be honest for proper chances at cold & snow. Albeit I have the feeling that when it comes, it will be one to remember.

Recent Tree in Macclesfield Forest from the wind...

Indeed John, But one can only create a better trend by following every run and every chart, right?

Thanks Nick, just to clarify that was the point of my post, and the 6 hours is usually the next update wait time... 00Z 0330-0445 | 06Z 0930-1045 | 12Z 1530-1645 | 18Z 2130-2245 (GMT)^^ every 6 hours ^^Hence the amount of fluctuation on the charts from one update to another. Would love the 12Z to be right, but just appears quite wild to me.

I'm not buying this run after seeing it all, it's all very too strange and over-done. Would be great if it came off, and would tie into MetOffice long ranger, but the differences of 6 hours is ridiculous. From: To This: From this: To This: Something not right unless the GFS has picked up on something...

GFS does rid of the Atlantic Barrage a lot earlier on and replaces it with a cold NW feed... Potential for snow from this... 850's support:

A much better GFS already for cold fans... Arctic High force down Northerly winds...

To be honest, I don't think anyone is expecting anything pre-15th of this Month for a good cold shot, the current theme is super hard to budge, and it wrote the whole of December off, and will probably write half if not more of January off before we see better synoptic setups for a cold shot. Look East and Scandi from 14th January.... Before that, were in the same setup as now.

Not sure that's true Shedhead. The MetOffice have been singing from the same hymm sheet for some considerable time now. These are all long range forecasts. Could go earlier, but these start from 26th December. I think it's fair to say your advice of waiting until another update to be sure isn't really valid in this case due to the above & the MetOffice have been smelling something in the air for some considerable time in regards to change. I am also not advocating ignore updates, as that would be foolish, more of a point to prove we don't have to wait until the next update. The Met Office have a lot more data than we do available, they are also more knowledgeable, but from what we have available, it ties in nicely with latest GFS and a potential Scandi High allowing for colder air and wintry showers.

I think Karl would be referring to: (Which tie in nicely to current Ens, charts & LRF's)

Hi Karl, Very much agree with that assessment for later on (towards end of month) for a more seasonal period to take effect. It's been/Will be a long wait, but it should get there, question is... Will it be worth it!??!

Hi Gav, Regarding both your posts, this would seem to tie in well with the latest Metoffice 16 day forecast so makes sense. Hopefully an end to this barrage of Atlantic dominated storms before some settled weather comes in. I think anyone searching for cold pre-15th January to happen is going to be very dissappointed. The latest NAO and Ens as posted sum it up quite nicely. At the moment we are stuck in the same loop as indicated; 3rd January - Atlantic, Wet & Windy Monday 6th January - Wet & Windy Saturday 11th - Attack Thwarted, remaining average Thursday 16th January - Now past the middle of the month, subtle signs showing, but still mild, wet & windy We are now at Saturday 18th January, and for the UK it remains much of the same, but a deep pool of cold spreads over Europe as the Atlantic barrage is finally held back, & gorwing confidence of a potential Scandi High, so signs of something a little positive if it's cold you are after. Jet Stream pushed way south: So with everything summed up from the GFS output, its much of the same for most areas. Feeling chilly, Wet & Windy, with Average or Above Average temperatures. Obviously all of this is subject to change, but taken at face value, IMHO there is no hope of anything pre-20th January in terms of cold & snow I feel.

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