The Beast From The East

I also agree... I think it's not the same now. This thread is fast moving with a lot of banter like in the title of the thread which is great but it lacks some of the more experienced posters and also goes off topic to easily. The other thread is great but it's now just to quiet in there. I understand what @Paul is saying about having the one thread and trying to moderate it all the time but it's lost its appeal and atmosphere now splitting it up. Please don't have a go at me as it's just my personal appionion. @Paul and the mods do a great job but it really doesn't feel the same anymore... Maybe to settle this once and for all you should set up a vote and let us net weather Members show what they prefer?

Day 10 looks like its got potential ... I'll get my coat... ☺

I keep reading since December we missed the first bite of the Cherry, I'm sure we've missed about 10 bites of that cherry.. I'm surprised theres any of that cherry left..

Is this the Steve Murr sausage I keep hearing about?

Absolutely Amazing charts showing up now.... and to think back in December we were being told by @Glacier Point @lorenzo @chionomaniac @Catacol @tight isobar @Steve Murr and others and im sorry if i have missed you out. They were going on about the impact of the SSW we were going to have back in December and how it would or could affect us further down the line possibly around mid month of January... Well many including myself was starting to have doubts as even back at the first week of January there was absolutely no sign of anything showing up in the extended outlook on the GFS or other models and yet here we are now with The Beast very much looking straight at the UK and is just waiting to pounce on us.. How they saw this coming amazes me and i would just like to give them all a massive THANK YOU... Also thanks to everybody on the forum and to the mods for making this a great weather forum to come onto and learn and to meet people with the same interests and obsessions with cold and SNOW. Not forgetting @nick sussex by the way and his shortwaves lol.... Enjoy your posts very much, just not your shortwaves....

Fantastic news after watching the icon downgrade, we just need to finally keep the upgrades come the early morning runs.. like I said earlier the models always get better during the day and evenings yet come morning they revert back again... Deffinatly not imagining it lol... Or am I? ❄☺

Always the same though, alarm goes off at 5am and the first thing I reach for is my phone half expecting to see downgrades and without fail there always is but always things upgrade again through the day and gradual come the evening runs everything looks ok again... Hope today is the same and that the ECM holds firm .. . Soon find out..

It's all looking good again, I think my new plan will be to look again at the GFS pub run later tonight but must try not to look at the early morning runs as they always downgrade only to upgrade again later throughout the day.. ?☺❄❄

Looks more like it... ☺ @Glacier Point can I ask if you believe we are still on track? Thanks.

So is the reason for the not so good models today down to the Azors HP having more influence or being to close? I believe it was @BLAST FROM THE PAST who was airing caution a few days ago about this HP out to our SW and that it's been a pain all winter so far. Or is it more to do with where the bits of the PV look like ending up? ?

Hopefully it won't be long till were all back in here and this place will be buzzing again. ❄❄❄

@nick sussex Do we have any shortwave dramas to worry about or any that could possibly help us out as far as you can tell? ?

Fantastic post as ever Steve. ? Just hope we are included with Europe and were not forgotten...

Just been watching Gavins latest weather video going through the GFS Enables up to around the 20th/23rd. He always explains the models very well and what they are showing... He shows how Northern Blocking isn't showing but it doesn't mean it won't. Here is the link if anyone is interested.

So how long do we think the effects of the SSW will go on for? What I'm trying to say is has it already started and that's why some places in Europe are seeing really cold and snowy extreme weather and is it possible we are just in the wrong place this time round? Does it last for weeks or months after as I have no idea... if it's weeks then I'm guessing we still have a great chance of something special later in the month but if it's getting near to the end of its peak come the end of the month then what then? Even if we get some colder weather at the end of the month or into February could it just be down to normal winter weather and nothing to do with the original SSW that I believe was happenig high up in the atmosphere during December.. Many Thanks.. ?

Looks ok but would prefer primed at day 5 ?❄❄❄❄❄❄

As much as it's Frustrating for us not seeing anything cold or snowy on the models yet it must be even more Frustrating for the More Experienced members on here who keep explaining to us and writing some Great detailed posts about the real action hopefully starting around Mid Month onwards...

I can remember the same thing happening last season.. Great afternoon and evening runs but the early morning runs would always downgrade only to upgrade again later that day... Strange..

Fantastic post, All looking good .. can't wait for part 2. Thanks ?❄

I am liking the sound of that... THANKS for taking the time to write an in-depth post.. ??

Always enjoy reading your posts, any chance you could let us know your thoughts for mid January onwards and if you think we remain on track once you've done the housekeeping ☺?❄ Thanks.

Great having you back... Could you tell me why the 16th onwards stands out for you... By the way, I haven't seen many seagulls flying around yet ☺

That would have been me telling my little boy... The trouble is that I get more excited about snow than he does and I'm in my 40s lol. Sorry ❄❄❄

So this is the reason they did the forecast that they did then.. they were only saying what they were seeing for next week.. Such a shame that this always happens to us all with great model outputs yesterday evening and overnight then the following morning we get all the downgrades..... we deserve some luck.. Hopefully things will turn back around later for us coldies.. ☺

261 of us online at the moment... must be a good sign ?❄