Bottled Snow
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Posts posted by Bottled Snow
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13 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:
MetEireann should at least overlay MetO warnings over the north to avoid this stuff. I don't see any technical problems to it after all in the new Metoffice beta page there is no border on Ireland at all lol
I have been told by a reliable source that the Met Office will be updating this beta page on 29th March to show a hard border
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Encouraging signs tonight that another pattern change is coming with a Sandi high trying to make an appearance. ECM is good bit nice to see ICON showing more amplification and GFS also com ing on board. There are some real eye candy charts in the GEFS ensembles too. Ironically UKMO was more amplified earlier in the week but is now showing least amplified pattern Would like to see the UKMO on board in morning runs
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4 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:
I've thought for a few days now that surface cold from the continent seems a viable outcome. Without the cut-off upper low moving from Canada there just seems too much pressure upstream to enable heights to build far enough north to deliver a direct easterly feed. In these situations, a cold SE flow is far from out of the question. Surface cold with hints of deeper cold, but nothing like last year I suspect.
Yes the ECM mean from 0z suite suggested this, however room for upgrades if it has the general pattern correct ...it could be leading us up the garden path again and maybe that is why it so quiet in here, but there is always the hope that things are finally falling in to place and winter could go out with a bang ....
Good to see the GFS para and JMA move towards the ECM this evening...from little acorns.....
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3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:
I'm pretty much in Winter's over mode. Maybe the slight chance of something decent from mid to late February if we can get an atmospheric reaction to the expected MJO phase 8, but I've pretty much given up now.
Well ECM wants to bring in an Easterly next week so maybe winter is not done with us yet....no beast from the east but could upgrade if general idea is correct.....or it could be just another wild goose chase....all will be revealed
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1 hour ago, parrotingfantasist said:
If the GFS is right especially into its latter stages, it'll be an early early Spring. Europe in the oven!!
yep looking more and more likely this winter is a bust and all the favourable background signals will come to nothing....some signals in outer reaches of FI ensembles for northern blocking but I won't hold my breath after the way these, EC46 etc. have led us and even Met Office up the garden path so far this winter.
Probably be a cold spring though when most of us will be looking forward to something warmer
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3 hours ago, booferking said:
Poor performance very flat performance, England better team on the night more up for it.
England more up for it from the start and deserved to win... . ...only consolation...world cup expectations will be lower..... we.always play better as the. underdogs .....oh and the weather outlook looks dung for cold / snow but hey no
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15 minutes ago, StormyWeather28 said:
I'm far from an expert on the subject but I heard that climate change is leading to more SSW events taking place. So ole sleet Gerry just left out that part ha
yeah I read that recently too...a bit like chicken and egg scenario I suppose as SSW's also occured before global warming ....and there was no SSW just prior to December 2010 when a PV lobe dropped through Ireland and UK bringing us that severe cold and snowy spell ...anyhow my wife thinks this e mail I am typing for work is taking a long time so I better get back to her and the TV
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RTE Six One News was amusing tonight. Reporting on the severe cold spell currently in North America, a climatologist said it was as a result of global warming due to ice melt and warming seas, weakening the polar vortex and causing it to drop to lower latitudes.
20 minutes later during the weather bulletin, Meteorologist Gerry Murphy commenting on the severe weather in US said it was a result of a recent phenomenom known a a Sudden Stratospheric Warming....Is Jerry secretly working for Donald Trump I wonder
Two different explanations / reasons within 20 mins on the same programme made me chuckle
Mind you apart from us weather geeks, the normal Joe Soap wouldnt have a bulls notion what a SSW or PV actually means so no harm done I guess.......
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Typical really.....heavy rain all day yesterday here as the front moved in. Turned to snow from 8pm last night and snowed through until the hourly hours but apart from a few short heavy bursts it just wasn't heavy enough to settle on the very wet ground. If it had been an all snow event most of the island would be buried....just too marginal this time round.
Models look poor for the foreseeable after tomorrow so probably looking at mid Feb at least before we get another shot......still hope I guess and I know some got snow Earlier in the week and a few lucky places yesterday, but these favourable back ground signals we have read about since November just havnt produced so far this winter in a meaningful way
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Latest Met Eireann update is now forecasting moderate snow accumulations on lower ground in some places tomorrow. Earlier update was just forecasting snow on mountains.
GFS para has consistently shown lying snow over much of the South and East for tomorrow and now the OP also shows accumulated snow but to a lesser extent. Inland areas most at risk. Even areas that have rain tomorrow could see this turning to snow later in the day and overnight as temps and dew points drop off and the 528 dam line pushes back south. Will be early hours of Friday before the system clears southwards so potential for several hours of snowfall in parts.
Will be interesting to see how this plays out...at the moment it looks like the main band will effect the south up to a line from approx Dublin over to Galway bit still possibility this could push further north in to Ulster, or it could also stay a little further south of this line but you would think the models have this more or less correct at this late stage....
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31 minutes ago, Sperrin said:
Wow!!
wow is right...looks fantastic
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17 minutes ago, Juuyoku said:
Definite nip in the air tonight. Footpaths here are slippy and a hoar frost on cars that have been sitting for a while.
We have frost on grass and cars here even though there has been a thin layer of cloud over head all night and no stars visible...very unusual .....
good luck to everyone looking for snow this week...lets hope we get loads....
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17 minutes ago, Sperrin said:
Haha @Weegaz. My shed roof is still bucked after last winter. This might be the week to turn off its life support!
Looks good for north and west again but anywhere could catch a few snow showers through Tuesday in to Wednesday . .. lets see if morning runs support GFS in prolonging the cold
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42 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:
Wouldn't take much of a shift to make it very good though. Time for change. I'm hoping that the GFS is the leading light in terms of medium range forecasting!!
well para GFS never bought in to the easterly last week and is currently throwing out the best charts for next week ....probably be wrong this time though ha....but you never know
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1 hour ago, Sperrin said:
Still plenty of snow up at home in Loughmacrory...
Looks lovely Sperrin....hopefully more to come from late Saturday through to midweek....after that who knows...big swings in model output at present but no need for throwing toys out of pram like some in mad thread.......same people who thought easterly and rerun of 1947 was nailed on for this week now calling winters over because some charts this evening are not modeling what they want to see ....at over a week away.....MAD
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17 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
There have been downgrades in the very short term. These seem to have gone under the radar on here. One of the best examples is the updated 72hr fax chart for Saturday. Compare it the 96hr for the same day from yesterday. The new update is much flatter and much less inspiring for cold further down the line.
correct although probably would see northerly follow soon after.....however it goes to show that even at T72 to 96 hours things are changing and evolving every run....and another reason why peeps should not be calling winters over because of a poor chart at 192 or 384 hours when the charts will look different again tomorrow even in much shorter range .. ...for better or for worse
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Nice to look at the snowy photos from up north....keep em coming folks...
Looks like weekend will turn cold again after milder few days Thursday and Friday...more snow opportunities for some
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good luck to all tonight on the snow front....north and west should get a few cms by morning....hoping to catch a shower or two here in the southeast but won't hold my breath
Those lucky enough to get snow please post up the photos and make the rest of us jealous
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After this weeks snow risk the 18z is also very good for Ireland (especially north and west) from next weekend through following week with cold northwest winds bringing plenty of snow showers and night frosts.....quite similar to ECM actually and in line with anomoly charts .....
Theme seems to be cold this week with frosty nights and snow chances mainly Monday night and Tuesday. Mild blip around Friday then colder again from next weekend with further snow risk well in to following week
BS
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50 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:
Should be good right up to 5.45, going to get up at 5 tomorrow to see it
Pity it wasn't last night....was only going to bed at 5 after the sess
You guys and gals up north should do well tomorrow night and Tuesday I would imagine so send in the snow pics as it arrives.....hoping to catch a snow shower or two here but not expecting much .......plenty of frost around this week so definate wintry feel in the air...it looks like briefly milder around Friday and then back to cold over weekend and next week so more snow chances for some.....the predicted easterly for this week was a fail but I still believe we will see a very cold period over next few weeks with hopefully snow for all....
Bottled Snow
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19 minutes ago, bobbarley said:
That’s not the same as the update I’m seeing:
Thursday and Friday will see a very cold north to north-easterly airstream bringing sunshine and showers, the showers giving rain or snow and most frequent in the north and northeast. It looks breezy on Thursday perhaps with coastal gales in the south and east, although winds should ease on Friday. Widespread locally severe night frosts are also likely. Later on Friday, rain preceded by snow may arrive in the far west and northwest, accompanied by strengthening winds. During the weekend and following week a lot of fine weather is expected with the chance of some wintry showers. Staying cold or very cold, with widespread frost. However, some wet and windy weather is likely in the northwest, which may briefly spread further southeast giving some snow on encountering the colder air.
Is that update just for NI or all UK?
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Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
UKMO at 120hrs out. SNOWFEST.
Doesnt look like just “clipping” to me. That’s most of the country.
read my post again and then look at 144
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3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
Can’t believe what I’m reading! These runs are as good as it gets for this nation.
I think model fatigue is getting the better of some people. All models are agreeing on cold, how severe it gets is the question.
not all models look cold and very few show a raging easterly from mid next week when yesterday evening only ECM and ICON did not...UKMO has a northeasterly this morning clipping the southeast coast of England at144 whereas last might it had an east to northeasterly over the whole British isles.....all roads may still lead to cold but definitely more knife edge this morning...in my opinion
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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
It is what it is and nothing we can do about it, but it looks like this pathetic winter is going even more downhill next week, with very mild most southerly winds no doubt bringing plenty of cloud and drizzle ......oh well at least we won the rugby......maybe winter will have a sting in it's tail but not expecting anything to be honest.....