Bottled Snow
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Posts posted by Bottled Snow
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6 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:
Anyone else fancy beast number 2?
Sure why not .. ...if half or even quarter as good as beast 1 was here, then bring it on I say.. ...plenty of time for warmth April to September....
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15 minutes ago, snowray said:
It would seem to me looking at that chart that UKMO are running with the ECM at day 7. Wouldn't it be fun if the 18z were to come on board this evening?
Been hints for a dew days for The Beast Part 2 in my opinion. GEFS have been sniffing around an easterly last few days. On Tuesday ECM showed an incoming easterly at day 10 and dropped the idea but brings it back today at earlier timeframe. UKMO yesterday and today looked good and last but not least, the King of Beasterly modelling The ICON has come on board today. Not a done deal by any means but we are in the game once again. We waited years for a true beast and would be ironic if got two in a few weeks. I will take a beasterly at any time of year so bring it on.....
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1 hour ago, Bottled Snow said:
Frosty start here this morning.
Looked at Netweather radar there now and showing snow over my area . So looked out the door and low and behold it is snowing lightly....nice surprise...we still have snow lying in shaded areas from last week and banks of snow on sides of roads left by snow ploughs.....this is like the winter that does not want to end......
By the way and just for fun, check out tonight's ECM day 10 chart - another easterly incoming....
turned sleety after a while....frosty later so take care peeps
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Frosty start here this morning.
Looked at Netweather radar there now and showing snow over my area . So looked out the door and low and behold it is snowing lightly....nice surprise...we still have snow lying in shaded areas from last week and banks of snow on sides of roads left by snow ploughs.....this is like the winter that does not want to end......
By the way and just for fun, check out tonight's ECM day 10 chart - another easterly incoming....
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20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
18z GEFS are a goer for Northern blocking establishing last 3rd of March and a significant cluster would probably deliver into april albeit they are a mess and nothing coherent.
yes models seem to be sniffing out another cold spell. There have been hints in last few days so worth watching how it unfolds. These cold spells have been frequent since November so would not be surprised if there in a final sting in winters tail. Should be looking forward to spring now after our snow fix last week, and hopefully that will come sooner rather than later, however that would not stop me lamp post watching if another cold spell appears....
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Colder here tonight with clear spells...thaw stopped for now and icy in places ......
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45 minutes ago, Ice Day said:
Wow, brilliant post Bottled Snow. What I'd give to experience your Thursday 1 March!!!
Thanks Ice Day...
I stated in Ireland regional thread in build up to this freeze, that the charts reminded me of the Jan 1987 spell. That turned out to be the case but with an added blizzard bonus thrown in. The Jan 87 spell also ended here with cloudy skies and rain / drizzle thawing the lying snow over a few days. The blizzard of Jan 82 and the 2010 snowy spells were followed by many days of freezing, frosty and sunny weather. If I was being really greedy I would love a repeat of Jan 87 or this 2018 spell followed by cold frosty weather akin to 1982 or 2010, but I guess that would be really greedy beyond words ha ....
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Epic spell here in south east Ireland.
Monday 26th Feb - snow flurries with frost early and late. Max temp + 2 degrees
Tuesday 27th - snow showers from mid morning and light covering by evening. Further snow showers overnight with good covering. Max Temp + 3 degrees by noon but colder later
Wednesday 28th - snow showers all day with accumulation although some thawing at times in sunny spells despite max temperature of - 2 degrees. Heavy prolonged snow showers overnight leaving deep covering
Thursday 01st March - another ice day with max temp of - 2.5 degrees. Prolonged snow showers all day with deep lying snow and drifts. Dry for an hour later before blizzard moved in. Overnight blizzard leaving 10 foot drifts - crazy....
Friday 02nd - snowed all day adding to already insane accumulations. Dry for 2 hours towards nightfall then snowed again for the night Max temp - 1 degeees.
Saturday 03rd - snowed until 9am then rain and drizzle at times - thaw set in but still full deep snow cover. Max temp + 2 degrees
Sunday 04th - rain and drizzle at times with further thawing but still 80% snow cover by nightfall and large drifts. Max temp + 4 degrees
Monday 05th - cloudy with mist and fog until noon with further thawing but with 50% snow cover still in place by nightfall with drifts still lying in many places. Clear by nightfall with frost setting in. Max temp + 4.5 degrees
Best spell for snow here since 1987 possibly 1982. Proved snow can fall, accumulate and remain on the ground even in late Feb / March in southern parts. However it was cloudy on most days except for Wednesday when there was some decent sunshine for 2 hours or so in the afternoon. On this day we had partial thawing during sunshine despite temps well below freezing and very low dew points. Moral of the story if you want snow this late in the season, hope the higher sun stays blocked by clouds as much as possible... .
Really enjoyed the build up to this spell and the expert anysis and posts in the mod (sometimes mad) thread, regionals and SSW threads. When the beast landed it made worthwhile all the early morning and late nights following models since November (and the previous several years) hoping that one of the Stella FI charts would come to fruition...It was even better to share it all with my fellow weather / snow addicts here on Netweather
Bottled Snow
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3 hours ago, BlastFromThePastbuzz said:
I think we'll see more snow before March is done. Obviously not on the scale of the past week for those that saw it.
Got more than enough snow this winter to keep me happy so looking forward to spring warmth now, but yes would not be surprised to see at least one more cold spell with some snow before March is out. The cold spells have come thick and fast since November so still think there is a final sting in winters tail....
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11 minutes ago, radiohead said:
Well at least we won't have to deal with any more potential blizzards for another 30 years or so....
Wait a minute...
you wait 36 years for a blizzard....?
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14 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:
Aye. Been snowing quite heavy here over the last two hrs. Surprised there is no snow warning. Had one yesterday but got no snow. None today and most prolonged we have had this whole spell.
that band now over the north brought continuous moderate to heavy snow here all day yesterday. Hopefully you will get similar today
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23 minutes ago, Bottled Snow said:
Been Epic week here in south Kilkenny...older folk around here cannot remember heavier snow falls. Huge drifts everywhere. Has snowed again over night and still snowing this morning...Rain due today but I noticed this band is falling as snow over Wales and precipitation off Wexford coast is turning to snow as at moves inland...With a thick blanket of snow over the countryside and surface cold still in place, I wonder if we could eek another day of snow before the thaw comes?
Band of snow showing over northern areas. A band of rain coming in from southeast is shown turning to snow on radar as it moves inland over Wexford Wicklow and Kilkenny. Might be short-lived but interesting to keep an eye on
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Been Epic week here in south Kilkenny...older folk around here cannot remember heavier snow falls. Huge drifts everywhere. Has snowed again over night and still snowing this morning...Rain due today but I noticed this band is falling as snow over Wales and precipitation off Wexford coast is turning to snow as at moves inland...With a thick blanket of snow over the countryside and surface cold still in place, I wonder if we could eek another day of snow before the thaw comes?
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insane snow here in south Kilkenny all night. drifts everywhere. This photo is in my garden but out on the roads there are massive drifts ...gonna be a lot of places cut off tomorrow
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Nice covering in south Kilkenny after earlier smow showers...clear, icy and frosty now and temp of - 3 degrees...hopefully more showers to come later
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9 minutes ago, The Eagle said:
Met Éireann saying a red alert is now more than likely to be issued tomorrow for Thursday/Friday.
Hope they are right as would love to see an old fashioned blizzard. Just feel models are starting to adjust the low system further southward as per my post just now. Let's see what morning runs bring
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2 hours ago, booferking said:
You could nearly put your house on that low from the south not making it to north of Ireland run by run it will be corrected South.
UKMO has hinted at this for a few days. Now ICON and GFS18z are following suit. ECM getting there. By Friday this system might only hit southern parts and may not even make landfall. However if that happens there should still be convectiive snow showers about so not all bad....by tomorrow evening we should have better clarity although this system could give models trouble even 24-36 hours out
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31 minutes ago, Hegzyy said:
met.ie forcast for tomrrow
"Another cold day for Tuesday. Frost clearing gradually, with some bright or short sunny spells developing. But increasing clouds will bring some rain and sleet showers to Leinster and east Munster, during the afternoon and evening. Top temperatures 3 to 6 C. A moderate to fresh northeasterly breeze will make it feel colder."
are they actually serious? rain and sleet?!the cloud bringing these showers is result of a cold front pushing westwards and is the boundary between cold and very cold airmass...once this front passes through everything that falls becomes snow...however with the cold air tucking in behind the front I would not be surprised if this also produces snow...either way it is a weak system with the heavier snow showers following behind tomorrow night onwards
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Bitterly cold out there this morning. Looks like a lot of snow to fall from late tomorrow through to Friday...Hopefully UKMO is on the money this morning in disrupting the low later in the week and keeping the cold spell going....the position of this low likely to chop and change in model output for a few days yet.....interesting that Met Eireann expect to issue a red alert warning and mention "dynamic" snow. Never heard that one before
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23 minutes ago, Weegaz said:
For those south of the border.....based on the 12z gfs.....we wish you well towards the end of this week......when your communications are back up and running.....let us know how your are.
Crazy charts showing up at the moment.....some parts of Ireland are going to get absolutely buried next week if models are on right track
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30 minutes ago, snowstorm445 said:
If I remember correctly bits of County Waterford (around Dungarvan) saw very little snow at all, especially later on (the Comeragh Mountains probably shielded them). Also while West Cork did see a bit of snow (even relations of mine down on the usually very mild Beara Peninsula got a good few inches if I recall), the extreme south coast (around Kinsale) was also snowless I think.
yeah that would make sense. Central and east Waterford would be more prone to northeast wind and snow. South coast such as Kinsale would also have escaped the snow in northerly air stream in second spell. Even these areas should do well next week though I imagine, in an east flow
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56 minutes ago, bobbarley said:
Did the south coast of Ireland not mostly miss out on the 2010 event. This looks exceptionally bad for cork and Waterford
The first spell of dec 2010 covered Waterford in snow for 2 weeks as I worked there but the second saw only a dusting as flow was from the north then. West Cork I am sure did well in the second spell but maybe not so much for east Cork
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1 hour ago, Fergie said:
I can't comment on previous events that are before my time, but I mean you can't top 2010 this time can you? I mean that went on for ages and temps barely went above freezing on most days, what was it like a month almost? I mean which was worse 87 or 2010?
Hi Fergie
2010 was indeed special but different synoptically. First spell from the northeast lasted two weeks in mainly slack flow and then second spell as a result of Greenland block. The upcoming spell is more akin to 1987 and 1991 in that we have an incoming siberian blast with very strong easterly flow. 1987 was a shorter but more potent spell than 2010 and this upcoming week is along the lines of that synoptically. Potential for this to last a bit longer with stronger winds at times and possibly even a blizzard later in the week, but probably not quite as cold. . Daytime temps in 1987 for a few days did not rise above -5 in strong to near gale force east wind and driving snow. Both extreme events by Ireland' standards in their own right though....
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6 hours ago, Bottled Snow said:
Yes the east and southeast in the firing line However I expect showers to push across the country at times in the strong easterly wind. So anywhere could see snow by midweek. Excited now....Been waiting years to see a true beast hit our shores again and this looks almost on a par with the 1987 beasterly. That buried much of the eastern half of Ireland in feet of snow. Living in the southeast, I was lucky enough to experience its full force. The snow showers were so frequent that even as the sky cleared as one shower passed through there were snow flakes tumbling down as the next shower followed on its heels. This lasted for 3 days followed by 2 dry cloudy days before mild southerlies took over. That was the only disappointing thing about the 1987 spell that unlike Jan 1982 or Dec 2010, a freeze never followed the snow and it soon turned milder with rain. Would love to see a Jan 87 repeat next week but with an extended cold period thereafter. I kept records of Jan 87 and have studied charts ever since. I honestly believe the synoptics next week will run that spell close for severity, irrespective that we are later in the season. exciting times and hopefully everyone gets in on the action.. and all that before a possible frontal snow event later next week....
well after viewing the charts this morning I have no reason to change my mind re above post. If anything, todays charts are even more extreme and snowier .....
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Ties in with METO text update yesterday so can't dismiss it. ECM and GEM say no at least for now though. ICON gets in easterly but coldest uppers stay too far east....Be interesting to see how this plays out...All aboard the Beasterly rollercoaster Round 2.....