Bottled Snow
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Posts posted by Bottled Snow
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12 minutes ago, ronan said:
Some serious snow here in Iceland!!
slightly better than the dusting I got yesterday....now that's what you call snow ....
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Nice to see all the snowy pictures this morning.
Heavy rain spreading east tonight but with cold air digging in behind. This could give a spell of back edge snow in places. GFS has been consistently showing this so maybe on to something. Would not be surprised to see some places wake up to a covering again tomorrow.
Snow chances likely to recede after that away from higher ground for rest of the week and then drier by weekend. Where we go after that who knows, but hopefully a potent east or northeast spell setting up to see out winter
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A light dusting this morning after a few snow showers and just a flurry this afternoon when caught the edge of a passing shower ....bitterly cold though .....see the models are swinging towards an easterly again ....
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2 hours ago, Sneachtastorm said:
ECM has also dropped the Easterly this morning. Model thread will be interesting.
well if this easterly does not arrive, I will take these frequent polar shots....even though short lived they are really potent this year....although would be nice to go out with a bang with a deep cold beasterly if this SSW can deliver
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5 minutes ago, ronan said:
A couple of cm's on the ground here this morning. Great to see.
A dusting of snow and very frosty / icy here in south Kilkenny this morning...brrr
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4 minutes ago, ronan said:
At last. Lol. Plenty more incoming on the radar to. Suprised no other reports coming in
everyone is in bed except us ha....glad to see you have your snow.....enjoy
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8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
18z was fantastic for heavy snow on Sunday but err not so good on the Easterly! ?
Yes you guys in north and west should do well tomorrow night / Friday morning and again Saturday night / Sunday for snow showers. Also looking likely to be more cold shots next week. We might hopefully also catch a few snow showers in the south and east in these colder spells.
This winter has really been memorable for the numerous (if short lived) westerly / northwesterly cold spells. Even here in the southeast I have seen snow fall in 5 of those cold spells and had lying snow on several days. As I said before it reminds me of the 80s winters of my childhood.
're the easterly there are encouraging signs we could end winter with a Scandi or Greenie High and a notable cold / snowy spell , however I believe there is a 30 to 40 % chance things do not fall favourably - like tonight's 18z run with blocking to the north but synoptics not quite aligned to bring in the deep cold. Will be keeping the champers on ice until models are within 3 to 4 days range of showing any impending wintry nirvana from the north or east. In the meantime enjoy these polar westerly flows and hopefully the best is yet to come.....
Bottled Snow
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48 minutes ago, Juuyoku said:
Came home from work to a couple of inches.
I guess that's why warnings were issued ???
Localised as is normally the case with showers, and thats why forecasters have to issue warnings for a wider area - as some places in that area will be effected.
I agree though that warnings were only issued in the past for severe events. Check out the splendid forecast by the late great Ian McAskill on YouTube of Jan 1987 severe spell which was one of the coldest and snowiest spells of the 20th century - and not a warning in sight....ah the good old days
BS
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A few cms fell here last night in south Kilkenny. Steady snow for a good few hours though there was a slight thaw after snow stopped , with skies remaining cloudy but much better than expected . Third event this winter with lying snow so not bad considering we have yet to see proper blocking.
Some places may get a covering again later today....
Bottled Snow
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snowing steadily here in Kilkenny for a few hours now ....most surfaces covered Better than I expected earlier....still coming down but probably clear in next hour or so
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30 minutes ago, Bottled Snow said:
Net Weather radar and Met Eireann radar says it is snowing here in south Kilkenny for last half hour and not a flake yet either.....can see why Met Eireann have changed latest forecast update from snow to snow flurries....front is dying a death as it moves east it seems
Finally light snow now falling here in Kilkenny...might get a dusting / light covering
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17 minutes ago, carboncowboy75 said:
So the radar has been red above ny house for 20mins and nothin yet.... must b a long way down lol
Net Weather radar and Met Eireann radar says it is snowing here in south Kilkenny for last half hour and not a flake yet either.....can see why Met Eireann have changed latest forecast update from snow to snow flurries....front is dying a death as it moves east it seems
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9 minutes ago, bobbarley said:
Yes to snow in February
No in March, looking forward to spring then
March - in like a lion, out like a lamb.....
My perfect March would be like the above proverb - Cold snowy first half then spring warmth second half ....
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Met Eireann has a status yellow snow ice warning issued for tomorrow night in to Tuesday morning with 3cms of snow in places and likelihood of treacherous road conditions. After that possibly a trough moving through Tuesday evening may bring some snow to western and northern parts especally. Overall quite a cold week with some backedge snow possible Thursday and then wintry showers on Friday. Not a 1963 redux but a wintry week in store nonetheless so whoever sees some snow, please enjoy....
Hopefully this coming week is an apetiser for the main event of winter 2017 2018, should background signals lead to more robust northern blocking for second half of Feb and possibly on in to March.
Botted Snow
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1 hour ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:
Radio Ulster going for a period of snow on Monday night, says an eye needs to be kept on this
Met Eireann also going for accumulations of snow to low levels Monday night. Fairly underwhelming forecast from them after that with wintry showers near west send north coasts over following few days and rain later in the week. If ECM charts this morning are near the mark, hopefully their forecast will upgrade snow prospects next week
Bottled Snow
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1 hour ago, ronan said:
Haven't a clue what's happening in the model thread this this evening as got bored reading due to the amount of will it snow in my back yard posts!! Really is annoying. Snow amounts and front positions won't be nailed till next week and that's even if things pan out they way it is showing in the outputs this evening. Many changes to come.
Yes details will change for sure.
As an example, prior to Sunday 10th December snow event, Met Eireann issued snow warning on the Friday for Northwestern, Northern and Northeastern parts of Ireland. Saturday morning they moved the snow risk further south to include the north Midlands. By Saturday night they moved the risk further south again. At one stage several days before event, the models had the front pushing west to east with no snowfall predicted. I then watched the models move to a slider situation and noticed it get modeled further and further south on each run and wondered if my area could possibly squeeze in to the sweet spot zone. By the time Sunday arrived, many northern parts were dry and the areas worst hit by snow were the south Midlands and southeast. A pleasant surprise for me here in south Kilkenny with decent snowfall and snow cover which stayed intact for a few days.
In January 2013 I recall a front was forecast to spread up accross Ireland giving heavy snow one Sunday. The day before event forecast changed and snow was now only going to reach Munster and south Leinster. Still ok for me I thought. Subsequently front never made it past Kerry and Cork where some places there got decent accumulations.
In November 2010 we had heavy snow here for 6 hours on 27th with 12cms accumulating, when forecast even that morning was for a few snow showers near Dublin and Wicklow coasts
I can recall and am sure many here can recall many similar events. Point being with snowfall, it is often 12 to 24 hours before event (sometimes less) that details can be firmed up on. Yet people on MOD thread are despairing / getting excited over snowfall predictive charts 4 to 5 days away.
Currently models show a possible snow event crossing Ireland and reaching western UK Monday in to Tuesday before stalling. Yesterday this front was going to reach eastern UK. Dont be surprised if it fails to get past western Ireland.
Impressve cold being forecast however for next week, which will give many a chance of snow here should precipitation arrive, either from east or west. Not often we can say that
Bottled Snow
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Very interesting charts today with some unusual synoptics suggesting cold and at times wintry weather for some. Here in Ireland we could do with the Pattern edging further west to bring us more in to the game. Not impossible by any means and it already happened in December when I had three days of lying snow after models adjusted pattern west a few days before the 10th Dec event which meant snow rather than rain for my location ...either way much of the UK should do well if current charts verify so hopefully all you fellow snow geeks get your just rewards in the coming days and weeks ahead. Hopefully more upgrades to come starting with 18z later.
BTW pity to see such bickering here tonight on what is in general a fantastic forum with so many excellent posters . Be nice to each other peeps...its only the weather....
Signed : Bottled Snow (not BS) ?
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A few nice heavy snow showers came through here today in south Kilkenny which was unexpected. Current shower only falling as sleety rain so upper temps must have mixed out which often happens in these marginal set ups. Looks like there could be further snow opportunities for the foreeeable based on current model charts...If MJO and Strat signals etc. play out as expected by the experts, it looks like Feb as a whole could be a very wintry month with further snow at times. Interesting times...
Bottled Snow
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18 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
You really shouldn’t sign off each post with BS, you’re doing yourself an injustice
??never thought of that lol. And there was I thinking I made loads of sense ?
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13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
Top marks to UKMO it has not dropped the ball and seems to be the pied piper!
Yes looks like UKMO has this nailed. Unfortunately though it looks like the strong PV to northwest and azores high to southwest are just too strong to allow any more upgrades with regards to an Easterly flow. Will give it until tomorrow but looks like we will have to be patient again and wait for another bout of amplification further in to Feb for a proper cold shot. However still likely to be some wintriness at times in the interim mainly to more northern areas as cold air from Greenland makes inroads occasionally.
Would love to be proven wrong but hard to see even the best case UKMO synoptics bring the block to northeast in to play for us at this point.
BS
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29 minutes ago, carinthian said:
This latest extended chart from UKMO at 168t looks very similar to what JN model is showing. So UKMO must be still backing a block to the NE. Of course this is very different to what ECM is currently indicating in its run tonight, no easterly from them this time ! Would be good if the Exeter boys come out winners again on this one ( RE: ECM last failed easterly, that UKMO never really got on board with ).
Pity we cannot see European synoptic on ukmo chart. However from what we can see it is clear that UK and Ireland is under an easterly flow. Coupled with JMA run I would not write off some sort of easterly just yet....yes an outside chance but still a possibiliy it seems...would give it another day or two before writing anything off
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14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
Such a struggle to get that all important Genoa low these days.
close but no cigar on 6z...encouraging signs though and closer to more amplified ECM runs of late. Let' see what the ensembles show shortly to see if there is more support for ridging to northeast
BS
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12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
& just for consistency ( or inconsistency) as the case may be
back to back GFS runs at just 156 for next sat
total polar opposites
Yes big changes run to run
BTW 8% battery life Steve is not going to last long enough for you to commentate on the 6z charts which will undoubtedly show freezing easterlies in the later stages..get the charger plug quick as we don't want to miss anything ??
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At least this upcoming week should be more interesting than the one just passed with colder interludes at times bringing some wintriness, mainly further north and on high ground. ECM and UKMO still more amplified than GFS so will be interesting to see how the longer term plays out. With background signals including strat warming, MJO forecasts improving, I still think we will see at least one decent cold spell with more widespread snow potential during February, and probably in to March .....then roll on spring
BS
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Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Bottled Snow
Yes some snow showers via pm air looks likely tonight in to tomorrow in places....however after almost 3 months of these rather frequent pm incursions, (which I have enjoyed immensly) this looks like being the last for some time, possibly for rest of winter , with the atmospheric conditions realigning significantly over coming days starting with a build of high pressure from the south this weekend, and then leading to some form of easterly / northeasterly during next week to ten days or so. This new pattern with more northerly blocking, once established , could take hold well in to spring based on current thinking. Whether this leads to snowmagedon or something more benign remains to be seen but a big change in our weather pattern which has been stuck on repeat for last few months, now seems fairly certain......