Bottled Snow
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Posts posted by Bottled Snow
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5 minutes ago, ronan said:
Guys it looks like parts of Fermanagh got a load of snow this morning. Just seen on Facebook!
the mountain tops here in the southeast are covered in snow this morning so would have expected places further north to have seen some of the white stuff alright
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3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:
Swearing AGAINing hell
Calling it now, the entire GEFS has done another 180
Yes good to see GFS joining ECM and CMA......we now need to see tjese holding steady and importantly UKMO coming on board in the morning....all to play for and at this stage looking good
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2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:
Fantastic ECM run for coastal counties of Leinster and Munster with a screaming North Easterly.
Yes and would be good for my location once uppers, dew points, lapse rates etc are conducive , however I would still prefer everything backed a little further west so everyone on the island could get in on the action......still believe a very decent spell of cold and snow is coming.......how much snow? decent amounts will depend on getting blocking a little further north and west......heres hoping for more upgrades tomorrow
PS Hope everyone are friends again...we all love the weather and the more members the better .....be sad to lose anyone....especially as the fun and games are set to commence
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1 hour ago, Neiller22 said:
Updated charts have actually decreased milder sector with colder air catching up over us so if this continues over the days we could get lucky. But it could also go other way but a nice trend.
Yes hopefully the pattern keeps edging further west which wuuld bring us more in to the game Monday night onwards....all to play for.....
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3 minutes ago, snowray said:
Anyone seen a chart like this before verifying? In recent years anyway?
Curtesy of the JMA.
unfortunately no.....but theres a first time for everything
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Decent enough models tonight but could do with the pattern edging a little further west, as based on current output most of the coldest air is going to our east. With down welling in the strat continuing and main thrust of cold still 6 to 7 days away this is certainly a possibility, although pattern could end up further east also .......The Dec 2017 slider kept correcting west right up to the day in question....It also would help keep us locked in to a colder pattern going forward if final outcome of next week's slider is further west than currently modelled .....
All to play for....
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2 hours ago, Ice Cube said:
Was never not positive, and if it changes in the morning I would still be positive. You can't look at single ops in isolation, look at 4 or more side by side identify what's different in the early time frame that takes them down the different paths and make a call referencing the back ground signals that have always remained positive. IMO that prevents these hourly knee jerk reactions. The dismissive comments regarding impacts of SSWs on the weather patterns are just plain wrong. No one has ever said it 100% means cold and snow, but what it does do is break up the traditional normal patterns and then it's just luck if we end up doing well. Anyway anything coming from the East is good for me generally (IMBY sorry).
Yes still confident that may of us will see snow over coming weeks....nothing I have seen today has changed my mind...in fact Getting more confident each day as things start to come in to closer range.... mid next week will be interesting I feel
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19 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
ECMWF brilliant overnight, GFS rubbish as ever. UKMET only goes out to T+144 and doesn't look as good as ECMWF at that point.
At least from Wednesday night onwards we lose the double digit temperatures and may get some frosts.
ICON probably best of all but not sure how reliable that is. Yes ecm looks excellent again although uppers a bit disappointing but all liable to change
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1 minute ago, Neiller22 said:
Good lord I don’t know what to believe then in that case. I give up. Good fun this though
think I will stick with Ian Ferguson especially as it means better chance of snow
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2 minutes ago, booferking said:
Afraid not below is last forecast from GloSea5 seen on Twitter.
New week same old uncertainty with the weather models. Colder conditions arrive late this week with increasing wintry shower risk for much of UK by weekend. Slight shift on GloSea5 (seasonal model) today of average or slightly above temps for February and March.
If you go to the model tweet thread Booferking you will see that Ian Ferguson of UK MET rubbished that tweet from Essex Weather....all still good in the hood
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Latest ec46 still showing strong signal for heights to our northwest from next week onwards to week seven...ec ensembles very cold....SSW record breaking and long lasting with winds now reversing at 10hpa level.... and Glosea showing a cold signal for Feb and March.....its been a long road since November this hunt for cold but hopefully things are now falling in to place for a much colder and snowier second half to winter
And still GFS is on a different planet but hopefully will smell the coffee soon...
Night all and snowy dreams
Bottled Snow
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10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
My take on the upcoming cold spell using the usual 500 mb anomaly charts
Looking at the latest upper air, 6-15 days from now. The usual 500 mb anomaly charts.
Not that they have been either consistent or a good guide at times but the three I use have been slowly converging over the past week into a more coherent and agreed pattern.
One item that has been consistent is the gradual lowering on all 3 of the contour heights. A week or so ago the heights just south of the UK with above 558 DM now they are predicted to be closer to 546DM or lower,
ECMWF-GFS
Today it is the turn of GFS to show the most meridional and cold pattern. Previously it had not had much in the way of this ridging over the western Atlantic into the Greenland area but now it does. Not sure if this will stay although judging by the EC and NOAA this is where it should be.
NOAA
Their 6-10 still shows a more Atlantic type of PM pattern with some ridging into Greenland, similar to how it has dealt with the pattern for about a week. +ve heights are shown off Newfoundland and these have also steadily increased over the last week on its daily output. Likewise the actual contour heights (just south of the UK) are showing at 546 DM some 10-12 DM down on earlier predictions. The 8-14 is a pretty similar chart in the pattern and positions of any ridging/troughing. Perhaps most of us might be more relaxed about this upcoming cold spell if these two charts from NOAA showed similar meridionality to EC/GFS. However, to me, the consistency of NOAA gives some confidence in the cold spell being something that is going to be there two weeks from now. How marked the cold will be, where any snow falls, is of course not for this type of chart but from the operational ones closer to T+00.
My own punt would be for a cold, sometimes very cold period of at least 2 weeks for most areas. Only temporary breaks in it for parts of the west and SW, unless a very active system breaks NE from the Atlantic. Then the usual problem of show or rain ahead and/or behind it. All full of interest for all those cold fans and for anyone with a weather interest.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php
Thanks John...always wait to see your take on the anomoly charts before getting too excited prior to a possible cold spell. ...hopefully the signal will continue to strengthen in future runs
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2 hours ago, Bottled Snow said:
Yes Dec 2017 brought good snowfall here in southeast from a slider..turned milder a few days later but this looks like a prolonged set up so should be plenty of opportunities over next few weeks
Met Eireann in week ahead forecast at lunch time predicting rain with hill sleet for Friday and Saturday.......hopefully we can get colder uppers in place to support snowfall as we go through the weekend and in to following week
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1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:
Exactly what I was thinking. If the sliders come in on a slightly more favourable angle then we draw in the colder continental surface air ahead of the precipitation.
As ever, the further North and East you are with altitude will help.
Yes Dec 2017 brought good snowfall here in southeast from a slider..turned milder a few days later but this looks like a prolonged set up so should be plenty of opportunities over next few weeks
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1 hour ago, Weegaz said:
Could we be on the cusp of something special?
With NW SE sliders being discussed, surely we should do well, especially up around the north coast.
It seems like an age ago watching the radar for what was incoming
Hopefully on the cusp...we are in with a shout anyhow.....lets see how the next few days pan out but end Jan and Feb could be special if things fall in to place
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3 hours ago, parrotingfantasist said:
I prefer a good northerly or something really cold than a northwesterly which fails to deliver for lower elevations these past few years anyway.
But as I said I'll always take a northwesterly right now and any time this whole Winter. Can always take a drive up elevation its not that difficult. Just a stressful roll of the dice when it comes to uppers and shower activity
MetO has a cracking northerly too on their website. But will it be blown away as quick as it came?? Lets hope not. Daffodils are sprouting up, my snapdragons are still giving flowers, and I just seen the council out cutting the grass. Dreadful stuff for January...
They are cutting the grass so the snow will settle better and more evenly when it arrives to make sledging and snowman building easier
All good still for a big change commencing mid next week....exciting times ahead....
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3 minutes ago, Sperrin said:
I do love a good NWesterly, however, it caved my shed in last January so still a bit bitter
I would love my shed roof to cave in with snow... it would mean we got a lot of snow .....worry about the consequences later
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17 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Thats what I’m talking about! At this rate the Mean will be 0c at D16
Happy note to sign off on
Yes and hopefully by the time we get to Saturday or Sunday some of those juicy charts will be coming in to the 7 day range
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fantastic and very interesting post by @Roger J Smith
A Jan 1947 redux would be nice though maybe too extreme as @andymusic post above.....however after the winter so far a few days of cold and snow would not be sniffed at....Things certainly looking up...heres hoping for a good set of ensembles
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42 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
The whole thing feels very different to last March when things happened quickly. My heart says it will go cold but my head is telling me it wont
JS - After the SSW last year we had several weeks of zonality before the effects kicled in and during that period many of us had doubts if we would benefit.......Memory can be selective and the cold did not set in overnight...we might be a few days behind this year assuming models and Met Office etc. are close to the Mark...Chin up things are starting to get interesting
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Hi folks
While the past 3 weeks have seemed very boring, mild and grey to most , it is still exceptional weather in its own right, just as much as say December 2010 was exceptional for its cold and snow. It is really rare to get such a sustained dry spell in late December and early January which is traditionally one of the most unsetlled times of the year. Even more unusual is the fact that high pressure has sat over us for most of the period but yet it has been unusually mild with many places having not even seen a frost and some places only saw a glimpse of the sun yesterday for the first time in two weeks. Very strange and unusual goings on and not much change for the next 4 or 5 days. While many will be bored to death by this stage, nonetheless I think the record books in years to come will count this as an exceptional spell of weather in its own right.....
....and possibly an exceptional spell in an exceptional winter.....Why???.....Well I am now confident that a change is coming and looking at all the latest strat and ensemble data etc. I feel we will be extremely unlucky to miss out on a major cold spell as we go through this month and on in to February. In fact when this winter is done it could well be remembered as the winter of extremes with the exceptional rain and winds of the early period followed by the current extremely dry / mild and grey spell & hopefully the big freeze with lots of snow to come. It is like this winter is a slowly evolving wheel with patterns setting up for several weeks at a time.
So chins up coldies ....the next phase of this winter is coming .....gradually turning more unsettled and colder next week before the descent in to winter proper with frost amd hopefully plenty of the white stuff to keep all the snow lovers in here happy.......
Bottled Snow
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43 minutes ago, More Snow said:
March 2013??? Almost as bad as saying snaw in November is no good.. and i bet if it snaw was to fall outside your so called winter you would be outside enjoying it?
Exactly....if we got a repeat of March 13 or March 18 this year, very few would be complaining. The snow thawed over a few days in March just gone due to change in weather pattern with higher dew points and rain. If the cold easterlies had held on for several more days so would the snow such were the accumulations that fell in many places. Yes an inch of snow will thaw much quicker in mid March than mid December but then it is often easier to get better synoptics to deliver decent snow events later in the season than in December, purely based on history....
Anyhow the ensembles continue to move in the right direction and the SSW has still to show it's full hand so still good chance of snowy weather turning up later in Jan and through Feb before we even have to worry about March .....
If you run through the Feb 18 archived charts after the SSW there was a 2 to 3 week spell of mundane and sometimes unsettled weather before things started to fall in to place for later in the month. No gaurantees, but we could just be now going through the 2019 mundane spell before the fun starts later in Jan...
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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
‘Later in jan’ replaced with ‘as the period progresses’
just a desire to change the words or a change in modelling that offers an earlier/later start to possible cold ????
Another change to wording from yesterday is that milder interludes are 'still possible' rather than 'are likely'.
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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
We don't want him to get smashed,he had enough drinks over the festive period
some good post today,thanks everyone
druel over this latest from the cpc 14 day chart
Possibly one of The most encouraging charts of the season so far....would like to hear John Holmes take on that chart......as being honest if the "hunt for cold" thread this winter was a movie we would already be on about the 25th sequel......with the last line of each being - "to be continued".....
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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Bottled Snow
Yes on a knife edge....even the GFS operational looked like going the way of the pear early before somehow pulling it out of the fire....UKMO also not as clean as last night...far from a done deal....big ECM coming up ....