Bottled Snow
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Posts posted by Bottled Snow
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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Cant get ECM charts but was this run from the GFS around the time you're talking?
That actually wasn't a bad effort from GFS as we did get a short lived easterly for a day or two before tje block was blown away by the Atlantic...
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13 minutes ago, cold snap said:
Remember the winters when you didn't look at the models for days?
What a enjoyable 15 months.
Yes from slidergate in early December last year through to March and again this winter it has certainly been enjoyable following the models....exciting times considering the dross we endured from March 2013 until last December...long may it continue ...lets hope the morning runs bring more cheer
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Be interesting to see if GFS para follows the script..... does anyone feel spoiled having GFS running two models at present until the newer version takes over?....to me it is like going shopping for a new coat, and getting two for the price of one
Hopefully we will all need 2 coats to keep warm next week, if ECM and GFS are on right track......
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1 hour ago, Rocheydub said:
and sometimes even agree ha
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Well presented and easy to understand Steve. Thanks for taking the time and effort & sharing with us all here on NW.......Really hope your forecast comes off and that you guys and gals in UK and us snow lovers here in Ireland have a snowy winter to remember....
Bottled Snow
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Very chilly here today in fresh East to North East wind with heavy showers and temperature maxing at only + 5 degrees. Currently + 4 degrees and absolutely chucking it down with rain which looks even sleety at times. Would expect the Wickow mountains for example to be covered in snow at this stage.
We always do well from easterlies here and no doubt if this spell occured a few weeks later some of us would be seeing a good covering of snow right now. Europe just not cold enough at this time to deliver from this easterly but I have high hopes of seeing plenty more opportunities further in to winter based on background signals etc....apart from some frost / fog, not really expecting much for another few weeks though regardless of whether the current easterly regime manages to hold on or not. Early to mid December on might be a good call to see a better shot of cold and hopefully snow for this lovely island of ours .....winter 2018/2019....bring it on.....
Bottled Snow
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Yes lovely frosty morning here earlier and beautiful sunny skies since with hardly a puff of wind with current temp of + 12 degrees....will take this weather any October for sure
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Lovely spell of weather here since Sunday last. Looks like it could last well into October with just the odd spot of rain or the odd shower based on latest models. Will take that and then hopefully some nice crisp frosty weather to usher in November before we go snow chasing again for 4 months or so.....love this time of year......
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Location South East Ireland
As a cold and snow lover, Feb 1998 and the Bartlett High that seemed to hang around for the whole month bringing very mild conditions after what had already been a poor winter up to then cold and snow wise.
If I recall correctly I think winter 88/89 saw a lot of this type of Bartlett High type weather also. People out walking in t shirts in mid winter in temperatures of 13 or 14 degrees C just doesn't seem right.
The run of very mild and wet winters through most of the noughties and again from 2103/2014 to 2016/2017. Some of those summer's were wash outs too.
The easterly of late Feb 2005 which was the first proper easterly blast here since around New Year 1997. We do well from easterlies at my location and while we had several days and nights with snow showers in that spell, it was not perticularly cold despite what on paper looked like stunning synoptics, with snow settling at night but thawing readily each morning with temperatures reaching + 3 or 4 degrees C each day. Disappointing as we had waited 8 years for the beast to make a comeback but it turned out to be more like a kitty cat and a bit of a damp squib.
Late Feb 2001 - after a poor few years snow wise, a weather front with snow developed over the east of Ireland with heavy snow falling and accumulating for about 36 hours. The front stretched from the east coast of Northern Ireland down through Dublin and the South East but stopped literally a mile or so just to the north of me. The blanket of snow clouds just refused to budge but were close enough to just produce flurries here in the strong north east wind, while areas just a few minutes away to my north and east got buried. I could see the heavy snow falling in the distance all day and what looked like a weather God giving me the two fingers ha. I had no lying snow IMBY but didn't have far to bring the kids for their snow fix, literally just had to walk across a few fields but remember being very disappointed just the same.
Finally August 1998. The 6pm Weather forecast that Bank Holiday Sunday showed a continuation of the warm settled weather and the TV forecaster explained that an active depression ln the satelite image just to the south west of Ireland would sink south eastwards with the associated heavy rain not making landfall. I headed in to town in a t shirt to an outdoor festival. About 10pm the heavens opened with torrential rain and it rained heavily non stop for about 48 hours causing widespread flooding here. I and all the other festival goers got soaked but needless to say we retired to the pubs to drown our sorrows. Met Eireann had egg on their face with that one and were at pains to point out the next day that the weather system unexpectedly veered northeastwards soon after they produced the forecast. The system then became slow moving , drenching Southern Ireland in its wake.
Bottled Snow
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1. January 12 and 13 - 1987 & Jan 01 1997
2. March 01 and 02 - 2018 & March 11 2013
3. November 27 and 30 - 2010
4. April 08 - 2008
5. December 31 - 1996 & Dec 01 2010
6. February 09 and 10 - 1991 & Feb 09 2009
I never measured snowfall by using instruments etc so above is just based on my memory and personal experiences of each spell.
Amazingly 3 of my 4 best snowfall events (Nov, March & April) in South East Ireland happened in months outside of Winter proper (Dec, Jan & Feb).
Even more amazingly, is that three of these occurred in the last 10 years (post large teapot/ chocolate teapot era) after a circa 20 year period of mainly mild and snowless winters (with the odd exception) when some 'expert's' believed that cold winters and heavy snow events were becoming a thing of the past, and that our kids would grow up not knowing what snow looked like.
The last 10 years have brought us some record cold and snowy spells such as in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2018 plus abviously some mild and stormy ones which were often severe in their own right. Throw in some exceptionally hot and sunny summers and one feels we are getting more extreme weather types these past 10 years. But maybe it is just a phase the weather is goung through- just like the large teapot theory / era some years back......
Bottled Snow
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I suppose we can add March 2018 to the list now....three ice days and definately the most snow I have seen in March by far at my location in South East Ireland thanks to The Beast meeting Storm Emma with full snow cover from 27th Feb to 04th March and 50% cover until 7th with the larger drifts talking weeks to finally clear. Mini Beast brought another full covering of snow from afternoon of 17th (snow showers) and 18th (snowed all day) with gradual thaw in sunshine despite cold temperatures on the 19th March. Wet snow fell again one night later in the month but didn't settle.
March 2013 would come next with a decent covering on 11th (ice day) and 12th and several other days this month had snow falling and temporarily settling
March 2008 saw some decent coverings over a few consecutive nights from a northerly which tended to mostly melt in daylight hours.... March 1996 also saw a good battleground snowfall here but melted next day...... 1993 saw a covering of snow on 01st in an Easterly but turned sleety during the day and most of the snow had melted by evening......Can remember a few more wintry March days from the 80's and 90's but usually 1 day or less affairs....
Bottled Snow
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23 hours ago, BruenSryan said:
No comparison there here in Dublin, December 2010 was colder and snowier, got down to Dublin's all time (since known records began at Phoenix Park in the 1830s I think it was) low of -15c on Christmas Day - perfect timing. Constant streamers most days, I remember every single day like yesterday. Woke up on the morning of November 27th 2010 to find my garden and neighbourhood with snow everywhere and blue skies. It was wonderfully perfect. The next day was the exact same and Dublin got down to its lowest November temperatures on record (so did Ireland at -11.5c beating 1919's long standing record of -11.1c). Further streamers occurred on November 29th to December 2nd. November 30th particularly stands out to me as a completely overcast day with consistent snow falling. I was in school and was sent home early then my school closed for the week. The snow stopped for a few days then came back on the 7th as a cold front reintroduced bitterly cold air (after a relatively milder but still very cold weekend of the 4th/5th) and had a severe frost on the 8th with blue skies. The milder period then came but the second freeze occurred bringing record breaking low temperatures again completely smashing previous records for Dublin and Ireland. I had streamers coming off the Irish Sea on the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd and 23rd. It didn't seem as amazing to me at the time as the first spell at the end of November (which is still my preferred one out of the two to this day) as I was probably just used to it by that stage. How stupid was I to take it all for granted.
Yes the 26th November to 10th December 2010 spell was exceptional here in southeast Ireland also with some heavy snowfalls and 2 weeks of deep lying snow & freezing but often sunny conditions. The snow streamers in the run up to Christmas in the second cold spell from 17th to 26th December were much more localised mainly hogging the extreme east coast with not much of a breeze to push them further inland. Dublin was certainly in the sweet spot for that second spell in December 2010. I remember driving to Dublin airport to collect my mother in law on the Sunday just before Christmas in blue skies but freezing conditions. Approaching Dublin from the Southside I could see the snow clouds in the distance and it was snowing heavily and accumulating by the time I reached the airport. Luckily ours was one of the last planes to land before the airport shut down. As we drove away from Dublin the blue skies reappeared and I watched the snow clouds slowly disappear in my rear view mirror with clear blue skies ahead of me again the whole way home. Apart from a few light dustings of snow that second spell was more noteworthy here for almost 10 days of perma frost with sub zero temperatures and ice .
The mid Dec 2009 to mid Jan 2010 spell was also memorable here mainly for the heavy snow falls in January but not in the same league as the late November to late December 2010 cold spell to follow.
After the Feb 09 snow and then the following two exceptional winters, like you, I thought we were back to the good old days of regular cold snowy winters. Apart from March 2013 and the 2017/2018 winter just gone, it has not panned out that way but hopefully we can now get a run of several cold ones in a row with us now entering solar Minimum etc
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Well what a year it has been so far...
From snow and beasts to sun, droughts, heatwaves and storms, 2018 will be remembered fondly....and it ain't over yet....
Nice settled week coming up to see out September.....who knows what October to December will bring...my gut tells me we may well see more extremes in keeping with the year so far....maybe more autumnal storms before another switch to winter proper ?....
Hang on for the ride folks.....and enjoy this upcoming settled spell
Bottled Snow
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13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Yet another beautiful arctic blast on the Gfs 00z in low res with a white easter, hope it's right!...in the meantime, enjoy this weekend's mid March freeze and disruptive snow!
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I get the feeling Frosty that if this weather continued for 12 months of the year you would be more than happy?
Models have been hinting at another cold shot around Easter for a while so would not rule it out..
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Met Eireann now have orange and yellow warnings for snow issued for weekend....up until today they were just forecasting a few light snow showers ...
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45 minutes ago, Bottled Snow said:
Yes huge upgrade on overnight runs with UKMO, Argepe and GEM all moving cold pool through spine of UK and Ireland. This is what ICON has been showing for days and this model remains steadfast over night. GFS also further north compared to last few runs but not as good as other models. Over now to ECM .....
Edit: All models showing brisk east to northeast winds so snow showers blowing well inland....
ECM also says BINGO
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6 hours ago, Rocheydub said:
Up until this winter, I went 8 years without lying snow on the ground. Please don't begrudge us!!!
based on this morning' runs you only have to wait 2 weeks this time...direct hit of cold pool for Ireland with likely heavier snow showers / possible longer periods of snow from Sat evening through to early hours of Monday morning...east and southeast again in the firing line
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27 minutes ago, The Eagle said:
Irish contingent will be happy including a certain someone in Cork. Good for pretty much most of us on here i'd have thought...except far north Scotland maybe.
P.S ICON has been superb. Great model.
Yes huge upgrade on overnight runs with UKMO, Argepe and GEM all moving cold pool through spine of UK and Ireland. This is what ICON has been showing for days and this model remains steadfast over night. GFS also further north compared to last few runs but not as good as other models. Over now to ECM .....
Edit: All models showing brisk east to northeast winds so snow showers blowing well inland....
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2 hours ago, bma79 said:
Heading to Newcastle this weekend on a stag, could be dicey enough to get home ?
Even with mild sunshine and light winds it would be dicey to get home from stag in Newcastle? ...been there wore the T Shirt ha .....good spot to catch snow showers in an easterly though
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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
ECM mean @120
Solid as a rock !
Brilliant mean from ECM...If correct, the England and Ireland rugby teams would be well advised to wear their thermals in Twickenham on Saturday....could also be snow showers rattling through during the game....
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7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Staggering output this morning. Another Easterly incoming with sub -10 850s by the end of the weekend.
Don't be putting your snow shovels away just yet.
yes very cold charts for time of year...as I said a few days ago, these cold spells have been hittiing us every 1-2 weeks since November and the trend looks like continuing.....
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lets' see what the morning runs bring but as we stand right now, the chance of another cold easterly outbreak is increasing significantly .....
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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Barring the GFS the others are looking less enthusiastic for a quicker return to colder conditions .
The problem is that low near the UK just sits there filling with little trough disruption and then just phases with energy upstream.
We’ve moved away from that more elongated troughing to the w sw and have this bloated one which isn’t as good moving forward .
That about sums it up Nick. Also ECM collapses the block in to central Europe between 144 and 168 whereas GFS and to lesser extent ICON intensify the block to northeast with trough disruption to southwest, drawing in the easterly. UKMO looks similar to ECM at 144 so will be intersting to see the 168 chart later to see if it follows suit....GEM is ...well I don't even want to talk about that...
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Some support in GEFS ensembles for the op...6 or 7 bring in an easterly like this one P5 - others go cold eventually via northerly or northeasterly....very few milder options in there so spring on hold for a while yet ...
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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Maybe they also believe in faux cold : as in -3 on ground with high upper air temps is not real cold and until we get -3 at surface with -12 uppers only then it is cold
Any how hopefully more upgr ades to come in morning runs