Bottled Snow
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Posts posted by Bottled Snow
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7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
Yep think everyone would take P2 ?
and believe it or not there are quite a few synoptically even better ....
Night all
BS
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18z GEFS following Glosea and Ec46. After flicking through the various members I would estimate 14 or 15 bring an Easterly of some sort with the majority of these very cold and snowy...A few get there within the 10 day range but majority between days 11-13
A long way out to get too excited just yet but there must be a strong signal pointing the models in this direction. Going to be some very interstimg model watching over coming days to see if models are on to something here
BS
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168 hours from GFS ties in with latest BBC forecast
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16 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
Ok..
The best way atm-without a bore draw analysis, is to highlight-that the road has been rocky and unfair, in certain respects.
But you dont dig for gold and expect to unearth it as soon as your' on a supposed mine!..
However, we have opened up some cunning ground...and reward is likely immenent!!.
An, analysis later via my way of thought
love the way you phrase your posts?
looking forward to your analysis later
also hope you right about pattern change to colder weather.
BS
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Stormy out there tonight....take care people....
some positive musings today re MJO etc. Hopefully the models over next few days catch on to a nice cold snowy spell for early Feb
BS
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1 hour ago, Sperrin said:
@ronan cheers, all the cards fell in my favour this week. It's too late now but is there anywhere that does a retrospective radar feed? Would have loved to have seen the precipitation streamers for Thursday into Friday. There must have some serious shower activity!
@Sperrin sat24.com shows live radar images but also has an archive section where you can look back at historical rainfall / precipitation going back to 2008. Cool site.......you can look at the memorable snowfalls of 2010 for example ....enjoy....
BS
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Big temperature contrast across the country today. Temps currently ranging from 1 to 3 degrees C in northern areas and up to 11 degrees C in the far south. Northern and northwestern areas could see some more snow tonight before the mild weather spreads to remaining areas Sunday morning. Hopefully the next cold spell is not too far away
BS
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43 minutes ago, BIG LAD said:
amazed at how much snowcover we have retained. more or less full cover still and frozen solid. 4 days of laying snow for the second time this winter. sunday is gonna be like a funeral when it all melts.
Shovel some of that snow in to your freezer tomorrow..... to remind you of the glory days, when we have blow torch south westerlies for next few weeks?? I have a Nov 2010 snowball still intact in mine ?
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Unusual winter this. We had lying snow for a few days in December and again Tuesday into Wed his week. All from pm air so as good as could be expected for my location here in Kilkenny which is better if winds from the east. Glad some of you got some decent snow this week even in Dublin I see. After this weekend it looks like back to the drawing board however as stated before this reminds me of the old style eighties winters when we would get a few teasers before the main event. Hopefully Feb will deliver the goods for all
BS
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fairly benign week coming up before turning more mobile next weekend....at this stage a cold westerly shown for Xmas Day before turning milder again on 26th ....posssibly cold enough for snow in some areas for an official white Christmas..at this stage not as potent as the short lived 2004 Xmas westerly / northwesterly but could upgrade....or disappear altogether ....something to keep an eye on . ....otherwise hard to see any proper lasting cold before January unless models pick up on a new signal ove coming days
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5 hours ago, Longtimelurker said:
It started off as snow with me in March 2013. The front pushed a little too east for my location and I was under slightly milder air so turned back to rain. It stalled further east hence the crazy snowfall totals. Was still cold. 4c was max temperature for about 1 week here at end of march . We had a lot of snow showers that march. Would he lethal if we got that set up in the heart of winter
yes the synoptics in March 13 were actually even more impressive than Dec 10 which was a record cold month. That March brought numerous days with falling snow and modest accumulations in these parts however the higher sun put paid to most of the lying snowfall fairly quickly each day - apart from the northeastern areas bit by the huge blizzard where snow lay in to April ...If those synoptic occurrd in Jan it would have been a memorable spell
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4 hours ago, Rocheydub said:
Sleet and rain is all I got in 2013!!
The meteorological setup in March 2013 was very similar to the Jan 1982 blizzard that hit Ireland however in March 2013 the front pushed 150 miles or so further north and just the northeast corner of Ireland was hit. It was a close run thing in the scheme of things and those counties in the firing line got copious amounts of snow....we are due another nationwide blizzard ?
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Heavy sleet showers all evening here in County Kilkenny.....big snow flakes mixed in with the rain....mountains will be white again ..... hope you guys further north have a nice covering by morning
Keep the pics coming
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1 hour ago, Rocheydub said:
Not getting any hopes up. The slider drama really drained me. Every county around us saw snow falling at some stage, we had rain, sleet for about 5 minutes then rain again. Dropping the missus to work this morning wiping the ice off the windscreen, then looking up at the snow in the Dublin mountains as I headed into town... So flipping frustrating. I'm staying away from the MOD thread and meteociel too for a few days.
Looks like you might see some tomorrow albeit short-lived affair, however , based on some of the experts in the MOD thread, we have a better chance of an Easterly in next few weeks and months than is previous number of years.. Dublin is usually in the sweet spot for east wind snowfall so hopefully your time will come for proper snow
BS
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4 hours ago, booferking said:
There not going into much detail Wednesday on there video forecast cutting it short Wed 3pm at the minute but you can see the showers pilling in and increasingly white think there on the fence not giving much away???
This has been going on since yesterday by the way.
Hi folks
A pleasant surprise here in South Kikenny these past few days and totally unexpected. Rained heavy Saturday night and was still raining here at 8am yesterday morning although sleety. Turned to snow by 8.30 am and snowed steadily until around 3pm. Despite all the rain that preceeded the snow everywhere soon turned white and we ended up with around 6cms . Frooze solid last night and only a slow partial thaw today before the frost set in again at sunset. Garden still mostly covered in snow so will wake tomorrow to the third consecutive morning in a row with snow cover which is the best spell here since 2010, although we managed 2 consecutive days in March 2013. I expect tomorrow's higher temps and rain to wash away the last of my snow, however considering the warnings were initially for the north and northwest it was a pleasant surprise to be in the snow zone here in the South East. When Met Eireann kept moving the risk areas further and further south I still expected us to be too far south to benefit. However the slider system pushed another 20-30 miles south during Saturday night and bingo.
This winter reminds me of our 80s winters when we would have several cold snaps interspersed with milder intervals. I believe we will have further opportunities over the next few months and hopefully these last few cold spells are a teaser for something more potemt come late December or more likely in Jam and Feb. Hopefully all those who missed out this time will get their snow fix soon. Actually GFS gives a window for snow to fall from late Wednesday to early Thursday before uppers mix out
Bottled Snow
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Model output discussion - mid January
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Bottled Snow
ECM has put the cat amongst the pigeons tonight......only one run but actually similar to a lot of the more decent GEFS members over last few days, which ironically have reduced in number today. However as another poster has stated sometimes GFS picks up a signal then drops it before reverting again as other models come on board. The clock is ticking so hopefully ECM is picking up the right signal tonight. If we could get to a similar place as ECM suggests tonight,then with MJO hopefully also playing ball a little further down the line , Feb could offer the most interesting cold prospects since March 2013 (or dare I say it) even since December 2010.
I see similarities with this winter and that of 2004/2005 which brought some cold episodes in December and January from the west before February finally brought (at least synoptically speaking) a stunning easterly. Hopefully a more potent one in the offing this year if we manage to hit the jackpot.
Out of interest does anyone know if Glosea is still going for easterlies into Feb?
BS