snowblind

The no snow warning was correct for here. Fortunately I'm north of the warning area for tomorrow so shouldn't have to worry about experiencing several cms of no snow again. Then looking at the models shouldn't have to worry about any more no snow until maybe Saturday.

We'll make the most of this week then judging by the latest update.

Very true.

There is a warning out for overnight into tomorrow but when you read the text it hardly seems worth bothering. UK weather warnings WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings. Many areas will see little or no accumulations of snow, but 1 to 2 cm could settle in some spots, most likely over high ground and southern parts of the warning area.

At the moment I think I will stick with the met office forecast, which at the moment doesn't sound too bad. Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday: Very cold throughout this period with sunny spells and snow showers, more frequent towards the coast. Snow showers most likely on Tuesday then likelihood gradually decreasing. Severe frosts overnight. Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sun 5 Mar 2023

Lots of toy throwing in the MOD thread. Everything has gone South in every sense.

Portland in Oregon was only forecast a 10% chance of an inch of snow but received one of it's heaviest one day falls ever. Just goes to show it's not just in this country where forecasting snow is extremely difficult. Forecasters predicted a trace of snow, then Portland set an 80-year record. What happened? WWW.GOOGLE.COM It's especially tough to predict snow in Portland, where winter temps often hover just above freezing.

That would be amazing but I think it might be overdoing it a bit.

At times like these there's a lot of IMBYism about. If I see a comment that doesn't quite make sense I check the person's location and then it usually, but not always, becomes a little clearer.

Precipitation looks a bit patchy or is that just the UKV under doing it?

First snow warnings are out.... For Northern Scotland and down the east coast as far as Lincolnshire. 10 to 15cms possibility over the high ground of Northern Scotland and maybe 2 to 5cms locally elsewhere overnight. So nothing too exciting so far and certainly not the snowmageddon being advertised by some on the MOD thread. They have also upgraded to a cold alert level 3 .... For the north of England still level 2 for us so might get a frost or 2. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/snow-and-ice-warnings-issued

Despite all the talk in the MOD thread still no mention of snow in the forecast on the met office site for our region. Talk of frost overnight and wintry showers, mainly on coasts in the Sunday to Tuesday bit. Max temperatures forecast to be between 8 and 5 degrees during that same period. Too much chopping and changing after then to be sure of anything. There is the possibility of a channel low which the ECM seems keen on taking a long way north introducing the mild air across our region. Other models have it further south which keeps us in the colder air but will it be cold enough for snow? Or, as usually happens, will it miss to the south and keep us colder but mainly dry?

Cold weather alert issued today. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

I still think the accuracy after 4 or 5 days on any of the models plunges off a cliff. Depending on the model the steeper the dive.

Seems to tie in with the met office extended outlook. Snow opportunities north and east early on then milder with rain across the country after that. Low confidence on that last bit though.

Not a great update. I particularly don't like this bit "During the later part of the period confidence decreases significantly, however there is a risk of some milder and wetter weather pushing into the south from the Atlantic, meaning spells of rain will become more likely across the country. Temperatures overall will be below average but may gradually trend up through the period." Although on the upside confidence is low and there is a chance of some snow in the north and east before then.

Whilst there is much excitement in the MOD thread I'm not too hopeful of much snow IMBY. Going on past experience March 2013 only managed a few CMS on grass and cars and it melted as soon as it stopped snowing. There were places not too far from here that did pretty well, Andrewsfield got about 20cms. In 2018 there was heavy snow, 16cms, but most of that fell overnight 27th/28th Feb. Ice days on the 28th Feb, 1st and 2nd March but then it started thawing and was all gone by the 4th March. There have been a few transitory falls in early March, 2005, was one I think but apart from that not a lot. The upcoming spell doesn't look to be as severe as either 2013 or 2018. So I think it will require a good deal of luck and everything coming together just right to get a decent snow event IMBY, but we shall see. It did feel proper cold out there just now with a keen wind though.

Down to -1.1 last night, then it rained about 9 this morning when it was 2 now the sun it out.

Glad it's not just me then. I read it several times before deciding it definitely made no sense

Good update 27th Feb to 8th March "Towards the end of the period, there is an increasing likelihood of colder conditions, with a chance of snow showers in many eastern and northern areas. Temperatures to start likely around average, most likely becoming below average towards the end of the period." The later update looks the same as yesterday.

Yeah that's a real kick in the teeth. Especially after yesterday's update which seemed more encouraging.

Ok so my question, from reading the MOD thread, and I don't really want to post in there as I've probably misunderstood everything and the are so many conflicting posts. But if, as seems likely, there is going to be an SSW and, from what I understand, roughly 60% of SSWs lead to cold weather in the UK, why is the met office only suggesting a small possibility of cold wintery weather in March? That doesn't add up surely it should be a significant risk?

A more encouraging update I would say with talk of high pressure developing to the north of the UK and this "Temperatures expected to be mostly around average, but a period of colder or much colder temperatures remains a possibility, bringing widespread wintry conditions. Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Fri 10 Feb 2023"

That's nothing. Apparently there's a 1000km beast from the east coming, according to the daily star.

Only got you to 4.3 today, 2 degrees colder than yesterday. So that's why it felt cold today