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18z looking alright for Kent and south Essex early hours of monday

With all the thousands of data sources, I wonder how often each sensor is calibrated. I doubt buoys out in the middle of ocean are checked regularly. How much effect of these recording very miniscule incorrect effects the models as time goes on. Is it the models are actually better than we all think and it's actually the tiny errors in starting data in hundreds of sensors across the globe that have a bigger effect.

Weren't wrong about that perb 18. Still snowing after the blizzard and now the minus 12 uppers are coming in with brisk unstable flow.

And it turns to this at day 10 after the day and half blizzard.

Yeah I would say Southend is a bit dodgy. It's not the easiest place to quickly move from. If I was you I would stop on the roundabout for wickford/south woodham Ferrers above the A130 elevated position there to get good shots plus more important you can quickly get onto A12 and head further north east if needed.

Loads of fires broken out across east London/south Essex this is looking bad. We not prepared in this country. There is thousands of cars stationary on the A13 and trains in east London stuck with fire approaching. Lets hope everyone is ok. I am sitting here watching tour de France. Surely the feed for all channels and radio should of been cut with emergency broadcast for People not to travel in these areas. People coming out of work adding to the gridlock is not the best idea.

2pm readings will give us good idea if Heathrow will hang on to record and whether we can beat 41 ( I reckon 40.9). I begining to have doubts that north east areas will surpass that. GFS and arperge have the highest uppers over us now and very slow decrease throughout the afternoon. Peak temperatures to be between 2pm and 3pm. They peaked at 4pm for most yesterday but the uppers were still increasing then.

Don't think we be seeing 40 at Heathrow rate of increase is slowing everywhere. Rough calculations using reads for Kew and Heathrow for last 4hours and drawing curve has the places that are just below 35 now being in upper 39s at 2pm think the cloud coming up from South west will stop further rises in London after 2pm. Further east/north will get longer heating, I think we will see the highest temperatures around Ely at 5pm I am guessing a peak of 40.9

The uppers are still increasing and despite that most places peaked at 4pm even those without any cloud. Shows that intensity of the sun is more important than the uppers. Something to take onboard for tomorrow. Uppers 3-4 degrees higher tomorrow, 40c probably will be broken but not massively. I expect by midday we will beat the all time record and people will be saying we got another 6 hours of heating to go and will easily go over 41. When the reality is the peak will be between 2pm-4pm.

Is the starting temperature all that important thou? We saw many places shoot up 15 decreases in 3 hours this morning then the rate of increase exponentially slowed. Tomorrow we start 10 degrees warmer won't the rate of increase start at a lower rate?

Yeah the uppers are increasing but look at the rate temperature increasing its slowing. The models won't have good handle on max temperatures for UK as lack of historical data. I would think that air temperature is not linear to uppers for UK even if no cloud as as the land temperature increases we will begin to generate as stronger sea breeze pushing temps down well inland

Safe to say 40 degrees not going to be breached today, not sure 100% sure record is going to go either. Everyone on here seems to think it's a done deal but look back over last couple of pages the rate of increase is slowing considerably. Massive increase this morning but now nowhere has raised more than 0.8 degrees In last hour we only got another 4 hours of rises. So only another 3 degrees max on top of what they are now, so going to be close.

I thought few days back the hottest day would be wednesday, looking unlikely now but the models have start to slow the exit of the low, still possible that the low stalls over us and the uppers the decay in situ rather than being swept aside. Think with current trend Wednesday might still have few places reaching 33/34

I would laugh if each gfs run from it is delayed 2 hours further and Wednesday turns out the hottest day after already having 2 ridiculously hot days before.

The ECM being cooler is nothing to do with how far west/low is. Its to do with how it's interacting with the low to the north, changing its shape western Scotland actually get north easterlies at 96hr. If we compare UKMO The bottom of the low is less squeezed, allowing cleaner flow for the intense uppers. The ECM will also have more cloud/potential storms in the west with convergence zones and tighter thermal gradient. So it's more cloud and less intense upper reaching us that cause ECM to be couple of degrees cooler.

Thing with ECM that I can't fathom is how it is best performing model statistically at day 7 when at closer ranges (inside 48hours) it is often nowhere near as accurate as GFS/icon. How does it go on from starting with less accurate picture to be the most accurate in the longer range. It's not really worth looking at any of the medium term models now for Monday and Tuesday, as UKV should be the most accurate being a short term model with higher resolution.

Shame icon 18z only goes out to 120hr. It looks like it may keep the low to west of Portugal in situ or significantly slow down its push north. 1st run I seen that phases the low with the lower pressure over north Africa/western med Doesn't make any difference to the uppers over UK on Sunday. But starts to intensify the heat over Spain and couple of frames further on I would expect a straight draw from Africa to us. Tuesday would be record breaking again and maybe prolongs the heat.

6z starting to show where I think we will end up and why I think that we will actually have wide spread low 40s but not until Wednesday 20th. Mentioned yesterday that I thought Wednesday will be the hottest. We seen over last few runs the low with the associated highest uppers be kept Futher south west. If continues and we see it slower further the Azores will loop over top and it gets stuck. Imagine that the 180 chart but with the low couple hundred miles Futher south west then getting trapped there for few days, will just push uppers from North Africa completely over land to us.

Going out on a limb here but we haven't seen the actual record that will happen on any model out put yet.. What we saw on 6gfs was with a slower evolution there was reload of 28+ plus uppers into Spain before being pushed our way. Just a hunch but over next few runs we will see slightly slower evolution and even warmer upper pumped into Spain then onto us on more direct route through France rather than around high over Biscay. Wednesday too be the hottest once we get down to t-0

Tuesday gonna be record breaking on this run. Trend is to slow the plume but prolong the heat. A long slow burn

Tuesday gonna be record breaking on this run. Trend is to slow the plume but prolong the heat. A long slow burn

Models apart from GEM are looking worrying now. It's not just older and vulnerable People that will become ill, we not prepared in this country for keeping live stock cool in such extremes. I am keen fisherman and already 2 park lakes near me have fish in distress due to the lack of oxygen in the water with no recent rain. Environment agency on site trying with pumps keeping the water moving. If the GFS comes of as planned they might aswell give up now.

It expired at 1500. They automatically disappear off the website once it reaches the end time.

Those that all saying it is deeper and further north than predicted at this time remember that the models are in French time. I.e if you are looking at satalite image/pressure reading from 8pm UK time we should be comparing with the 21:00 charts on meteociel.

Only one run but if GFS 12z is correct the MET will have to move the current red warning. GFS has Cornwall and south coast as the main areas of concern not south Wales.