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Everything posted by pages

  1. pages
    Yep further west looks best, similar to 2009 in regard that intensity is increased actually further inland but angle currently has bit more north component than 2009 places like Watford looking good for a couple of hours then will move slightly further south.
  2. pages
    The winds are perfect for streamer from now until about 2pm and there is convergence zones towards London uppers minus 14 over us and minus 16 out to the sea.. Models not showing too much snow probably to the DAM increasing but with temperature gradient of over 20degrees they may be underestimating the convection.
  3. pages
    At 1.30am in Grays i had no snow on my car I have just mesured on the roof of it now it has 7cm still chucking down should easily make it to 10cm before it eases off here in around half hour
  4. pages
    in theory yes but western end of southern band currently over Canterbury might start to weaken in about an hour due to the decreased sea track, wait and see job how much convection we will get from south easterly.
  5. pages
    yep its all converging on the estuary the south band is trying to go north west and the stuff on east Anglia coast going west south west the bands will join shortly north Kent and south Essex and Sussex looking good for next hour and a half before we lose the convergence zone.
  6. pages
    interesting looking at south East coast showers are streaming in on East South Easterly. Models may of underestimated showers from that direction with short sea track. but Channel is slightly warmer so maybe negating it. look at the band heading up from Hythe up toward Tonbridge then on towards Crawley.
  7. pages
    somewhere is going to get massive hit. its all converging where will lucky winner be. at guess I should say Isle of Grain which is disappointing as not many live there.
  8. pages
    Snowray to you have the midnight to 3am Euro4. your top chart is 9pm-midnight, bottom 3am-6am
  9. pages
    maybe south east London for very short while. winds will due to turn around to South East shortly which will reduce showers as shorter sea track. unfortunately winds not from ENE for long enough or strong enough to get Thames streamer going.
  10. pages
    yep and playing with weak heights to NE at t-96, think we will see Friday low further SE think the worry now is will the snow actually reach us on Friday rather than whether it will stay as snow. lets hope it shifts hope it shifts due East.
  11. pages
    yep Mid/East Kent going hammered more for next couple hours intensity going to ramp up as pressure and DAM drop and they have a converge zone moving slowly west over next 3 hours. us north of the river and further West might get a brief period around 10-11 for some heavy showers then after that light showers for all as winds veer from SE and reduced sea track reduces convection. tonight looking very good for Norfolk and further up east coast, unfortunately for us West Essex and north London the wind direction is not right. Its a shame tomorrow late morning and all afternoon has perfect winds for Thames Streamer and minus 14 uppers but the DAM has increased by then to limit convection thou we will probably get light showers.
  12. pages
    ok so lets look at bigger picture beyond Fridays low and where we trending. I will use Icon to illustrate 18z- 12z- trend is for vortex to be weaker displaced further south over Siberia. our low to go further south and weak surface heights developing to North east. over Pole we are seeing weak heights over Svalbard and each run the Aleutian ridge has a better attempt to gain latitude before it collapses. Now doesn't take great leap if trend continues to think that come day 7/8 that we may surface heights develop in Scandie at the same time the Aleutian ridge manages to get towards pole. Models very slowly reacting to weaken Siberian vortex in response to second warming and also MJO going into phase 1?
  13. pages
    Steve you seen the 18Zs GFS now following the Icon with south East blizzard keeps all snow Friday with warming up Saturday but its big improvement from 12z its getting there Friday could be good lets hope
  14. pages
    Because the ICON has been performing well lately; it what the 1st model to spot the initial Easterly, and while the othesr flipped around with wild swings of our far north/south easterly setup it pretty much showed it where is currently is today a week ago. It seems at least at match for the big 3 during this reversal of strat winds don't know why. Once we are back to normal type patterns I expect the others will outperform it again.
  15. pages
    latest 18z ICON model showers blizzards for us Friday 20cm plus over wide area staying cold with chance of another to follow later in weekend. however would take that with huge pinch of salt as won't know where low is going till about 24hours before and subject to change. but we are looking better than what was showing last night.
  16. pages
    Yep if Icon is trending nicely in the t-0 - t-48 range upgrades to cold spell to come I reckon the lower may go further south and we get reload from north east with snow showers personally I would rather somewhere gets a blizzard and hope its my area as never really had a proper blizzard in my life time.
  17. pages
    18z Icon has both high further east and lower further marginally south at t-48 trend continues... 18z-
  18. pages
    don't leave it to late C2C already cancelling trains https://www.c2c-online.co.uk/about-us/latest-news/service-alterations-26-27-february/
  19. pages
    I think the GFS will get there on pub run. Interesting that ICON is showing more disruption. I think it is pretty accurate in the short term which where these changes are happening. I know the ECM tops verification charts we see posted but that is for t-144. does anyone have stats for models at t-48?
  20. pages
    I imagine MOGREPS is run at 12z aswell and with their computing power probably completes output earlier. they would of analysed and discussed that and used for warning. personally I think its going to end up much further south and it will be next low behind that will give somewhere a blizzard. Also what people may of been missing focusing on low at end of week is now the high is retrogressing slower the pressure gradient is being increased between t42-t54 and we are pulling in the minus 16 uppers which weren't showing yesterday. upgrades in short term in terms of snow totals for East coast.
  21. pages
    hi Claret easy way to think of it is move everything on that chart further south obviously bit more complex but will give general idea.
  22. pages
    yep still not convinced frontal snow will actually reach UK. I still think it may head trough France looking at trend particularly the icon its showing retrogression now occurring slower and slower run by run putting more pressure on low keeping further south and it gets very close at T-33 to phasing with some energy in the Med. if models continue to trend this way we will just keep north easterly showers until the cold pool exhausts itself thou Icon shows upper reloading to NE at t-180 but that fantasy land with big changes to high place meant in 24hr-36hr period
  23. pages
    look at much further East that high Pressure is on the 12z if it changes by same amount again on next couple of runs it will be around Iceland and we will still be in an easterly. 12z 6z and look how those early changes leave us at t-132 no point going any further as models are really struggling with the speed at retrogression and position of vortex within 24hr there are difference of a couple of hundred miles.
  24. pages
    we have seen many a predicted cold spell disappear on the models at just 48hr in the past this may be the one time we see the opposite the icon is really showing that retrogression to happen slower putting more pressure on the low as I posted before a lot more energy go south east at t-30 if that retrogression slows down any more this low is going to go under and keep South Easterly feed. something to watch on next couple of runs.
  25. pages
    Icon at just T-33 interesting look at much further SE the energy disrupting is going and its actually not far from phasing with that small low over Greece now that would be backtrack from models if we get clean undercut. I doubt they will go that far but shows just how nothing decided for weekend yet as massive changes even within 24 hour timeframe 12z 12z 6z 6z
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