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6z Icon rolling out at T12 it is a deeper and further north than previous run.

As I suggested earlier after 12z runs of ECM and GFS trended deeper and north models haven't shown just how bad this is going to be yet. I expect the overnight runs to very slightly intensive the winds with a even deeper system. In last two runs from GFS it's already 10mb deeper for Friday lunchtime. Somewhere in Wales is unfortunately going to get 100mph winds. 80+ everywhere south of Birmingham at some point.

I wouldn't be so sure that ECM is over egging it. Both latest ECM and UKMO have trended slightly further north and are slightly deeper than last few runs. We all know from seeing heavy snow suddenly start to trend away from us that once a trend starts it usually continues, there is a chance it is actually going to be worse than the ECM currently showing and we just haven't seen it modelled yet. Obviously we are at short timescale now so not going be massive changes but I wouldn't rule out this being another 5mb deeper and strongest winds 6/7mph more than currently shown.

The ECM looks even worse at T48 than the UKMO slightly further north and 5mb deeper. Increases the wind speed for the worst areas and widens the amber zone. The only way this is going to downgrade now is trends south. We are seeing from UKMO and ECM that if goes further north it is going to be deeper than currently modelled so just widens the impact area. Any further shifts north and we gonna end up with most of England getting a red warning.

Probably the most servere warning I have seen a BBC forecaster give, he said large number of trees will be knocked over not safe to travel in south and then to North of Eunice there will be blizzards and warned cars and lorry's will get stranded on roads over the hills. If even the BBC are sounding the alarm at 40hours out it is going to be severe. I wonder if tomorrow evening will be one of the extremely instances where TV channels get interrupted temporarily for short public information broadcast warning to stay in. The government won't wants hundreds of thousands of people heading out on roads with trees coming down all over the place.

If models on Thursday morning are still showing this and the government/MET/BBC need to get the message out there not to travel on Friday. Seeing that we are in the age of people sharing viral videos via WhatsApp the BBC should get Michael FIsh involved seeing this year is 35 anniversary of the great storm. Start the 6pm news with him calling the BBC weather office saying there is a hurricane on the way then get one of the current presenters to tell us it technically not a hurricane but is going to be just as dangerous and go in to detail of how to stay save. Then show the video footage of 1987 distruction telling people to not go out on Friday. Get Boris on live after ordering all non essential businesses in the red areas to be closed Friday.

Why is he using ECM at short range. As a professional he will have access to a number of hi Res short range models.

So GFS and arpege are slightly further north and deeper and even more intense winds on their latest runs. Icon is weaker and moved even further south than previous, resulting in quite a bit of snow for southern half of country. icon is wrong not due to any scientific reason but just because us in southern England never get snow that suddenly appears on just 1 model. It appears on 1 model we get a excited then within a couple of runs the rogue model falls back into line.

Yeah looks slightly further north than its last run but is also slightly deeper aswell.

Yeah spot on. How is it to late? If this is going to be as serious as some saying it makes sense to wait until after Thursday 12zs roll out then the MEat advises Cobra for government to do live broadcast on all the Thursday 6pm news advising people to stay home Friday and cancel all public transport in advance. No point going red now and giving advise that 'could be serious' far better to wait and then give clear instruction.

The arpege is good at t60 the ukmo is good the Gfs is moving towards them. Would be funny if these improved further on the next couple of runs, While the ECM still says no that would be nerve racking. At such short range the distance between them is huge. Those that been on here many years what is the closet time frame that there been such huge differences between the models i.e has there been times when we got as low as 48 hours out and still massive difference

Very happy that the Gfs is still showing it to North for Essex. At 100 hours out I would not want to be in the jackpot zone. We all know that over next couple of days there will be a trend. Will it trend north or south who knows but I think us folk down south now have 50/50. That low only has to be marginally further south and/or disrupt slightly more giving a better angle for the cold to get in, small margins, it could be epic, if goes the other way o well, i am sure it won't be to long to next shot.

Here we go at 174 clear to see the effect of the high being positioned better earlier less cold air goes in to North sea equals less weakness. Plus better orientation the supply of cold is keeping coming around the block this time rather than being cut off.

This might even better than ukmo the core of the cold is further south. Might not get as much shortwave action off Norwegian coast on this one

Yes the cold looks good but it will weaken the block in next frame the 2nd it moves of the Norwegian coast and the low will then get stuck to South west of UK dragging up southerlys. It's not the strength of vortex we have to worry about this time it's the shape position of the high we need that deep cold pool moving through Poland/Germany then the block will have the strength to push the lows underneath.

I am not sure why everyone getting excited. there won't be any boom charts/long deep cold from the east this early. Why? Yes the deep cold is there but the North sea of the Scandinavian coast is too warm in contrast to the air moving west. This causes a weakness in the block between the shetlends and Faroes. It's on the ukmo at 168 and GFS and it always happens when there is serious cold in that region with warm sea.. The mentioned weakness then results in lack of forcing and lows stall to South west dragging up warm uppers from South. It's why we see so few convective easterlies in December, we need the initial high further south to the real cold over land rather than north sea but then the increased pressure reduces convection. We need to be very lucky to get the high in the ideal zone

Shades of dark red which I think are around 15cm an hour appearing in estuary now think gonna be a direct hit for sheerness. Hope someone awake to film it when it comes a shore

Some people gonna be shocked when wake in the morning some of the stuff in estuary really intensifying now, north west Kent and south east Essex could get more snow in next couple of hours than they have the whole spell so far. Good 4/5hours before convection supposed to die off. Even London may manage a couple of cm

I don't think it's over yet for anywhere in Kent or south Essex tonight. Last few radar graps showing the streamers starting to pivot back the other other way. Can we go through all the different streamers this evening as the winds swing around to eventually south Easterly. Still showers up north so the increase in pressure will still allow convection. Thou gets to a point where the shorter sea track will reduce convection

Why do the BBC even use the Meteogroup forecasts? Understand they didn't renew MET office contract as too expensive. If they saving money why didn't they go the full hog and just get their own presenters/forecasters to interpret the models and put their own graphics on.

I wouldn't worry yet. Latest GFS shows low slight further north and west than yesterday models hence why uppers and dew points taking longer to cool down. Last few radar runs show the whole back of the band in North sea turning to snow and intensifying. Yes we have lost couple of hours early snow due to it being marginally to warm but it should be turning rapidly now and setting within next couple of hours for all. Positive is more areas to north and west should see snow than modelled last night

Sleet here in Laindon aswell last radar return had a pink pixel in Kent, so it's starting to turn now another 2 hours I reckon and any precipitation will be snow

Hopefully not. Let's hope it stays in phase 7 as long as possible. Phase 8 often flatters to deceive. When models 1st pickup on phase 8 they show impressive Greenland high but as time ticks down we more often then not end up with west based -Nao. Ideally the MJO meanders around the border of 7&8 at decent amplitude supporting prolonged scandie high pushing towards Iceland.

It's looking good for most of us. If your app is not showing much snow don't get to hung up. All models and met office forecast have Sheffield at 3 degrees and heavy rain at this time but it is already zero and chucking it down with snow. Doesn't necessarily mean it's going to start snowing earlier here but illustrates it's now down to watching radar and looking out of window as could easily be further west than models have shown.

Looking very good. Just popped into north east thread it's already snowing in lowest parts of Sheffield. Met office and most models didn't have it transitioning to snow there until 9pm suggest uppers are colder than modelled or under cutting quicker. Also the precipitation in North east is heavier than forecast suggesting models have under modelled convection as cold uppers move in. Kold do you think with it already snowing in North east 3 hours before modelled we will see same down here from midnight ish?