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I did say earlier people were believing this spell was over too early. Radar shows snow coming back into south London in about 30minutes and GFS looks better for midweek onwards. would be not surprised if tomorrow is colder than expected as the low tonight looks further east so will pull in more of a continental feed, slight thaw start of week before going cold again next weekend.
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further east than planned Definitely sending some energy off to the East. next hour watching that radar could be interesting and not just for tonight if that low is sending a shortwave east we will pull the colder Dew points and uppers back in, might get a bit more snow tomorrow, lets see what is does and what 18z says before declaring this spell over.
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everyone talking like this over, not so sure myself. we have all week the models fail to even predict snowfall accurately. that lot in channel should be going towards Plymouth as low goes north. looks like low is disrupting a bit to be and sending a shortwave east from radar. keep an eye on the eastern end of precip near Le H arve that big blob may shear into in next hour and places in Sussex/kent coast may get bonus snowfall.
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its drifting, look in the Wales tread pictures with no snow on car roofs, bins, etc but drifting against parked cars so you can't see the wheels they got another good 5-6 hours of that lucky sods.
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@Bricriu the remains of the streamers early on still giving light showers across London. 1am radar update looking good low and associated precip now around 50 miles north east of HIRlam modelling at this time. looking really could for all in south tomorrow. believe it or not central London currently looking the sweet spot that will have the Met office worried when they wake up!!
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@stubbys the colours are the upper level winds speeds in KPH, these winds steer the clouds and of the precipitation. the lines with the arrows show which direction.
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yep correct the low is moving up in north east direction the precipitation flows around the low. centre of low is still miles out to west of Spain but moves up towards Biscay for tomorrow pushing the front on its north east edge up towards us.
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hi stubbys the French band gives impression of winds going NE but is illusion. the low is moving up in a north easterly direction from bay Biscay, the band of snow on its front is actually being blown in WNW direction as below, but on radar we see the north east edge of low coming up towards us each frame which gives the ilustion of showers going in north easterly direction. ETA for band to hit south coast 3:30am heavy stuff to arrive 7am ish.
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
pages replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mucka it hasn't your looking at T-29 chart, we are talking about tomorrow. HIRLAM showing below for midnight which matches radar (radar actually has the precip about 20 miles further north east). GFS way off is about 150 miles wrong at just T-6. was obvious most models were wrong at just t-3 this afternoon when none of them apart from HIRLAM had the streamer showing. -
Kevin that is Fridays band if you run next through frames you will see that come up NE and plaster us Friday aswell lol.
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yeah just having a look through radar and looks about 30 miles north East of where it is modelled of HIRLAM at this time. so all good for south East. if we take it Hirlam is now correct but shift everything slightly 20miles east it looks very good for whole south of country. would expect slightly increased intensity also for essex/Suffolk as now the eastern end of band will be further out in north sea and with the winds being very high that will increase convection.
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I wonder how instinctive forecasters at MET office tonight are? there probably trained to issue warnings from model prediction a couple day ahead or 12 hours ahead when uncertainty. A top forecaster would now be looking at the radar now and saying MOGREPS/UKMO is wrong here the band is much further north east closer to HIRLAM prediction, I better change the warnings and get message out there. I May be being too cynical but reckon they will change warning about 7am when senior people get in.
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remember euro 4 was run at midday all of the 18z has trended east even the ones that are miles wrong at t-3.
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looks like night shift at met office going to busy as once 0z models runs if the Harlem is correct and all others follow suit they need to at least to be putting out amber warnings possibly even a red somewhere before everyone leaves for work.
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Spot the difference there ain't much. pretty accurate. Radar for 10pm. Harlem chart for 10pm says 23:00 as its French and they hour ahead. much closer than any other model so you hope what it shows for tomorrow is going to be most accurate. showers on off all night. light snow moving in from 6am heavy blizzards from 8am-1pm then light snow to 5pm followed by repeat Friday. yes please HIrlam.
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Well things are looking good now; unexpected streamers today still on going the MET Office just moved the Amber warning slightly East for tomorrow. interestingly its in the highest impact in the matrix, so once they know for sure its going to hit, in theory should be red warnings. Plus if the latest ECM run is to be believed cold is here until Thursday now if with snow opportunities everyday. But that obviously subject to change when we don't even know for sure what is happening tomorrow.
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Sunday you say? ECM just went and upped the game now the models catching on to this being a 2 week affair. Monday looks fun
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yeah further West all the models different but when comparing each model to its run this morning they have all moved at least slightly east, so good trend for us, just don't mention it to the south West tread, if we get, it be will bonus for us as not expected, also NNM is now showing showers in south east all night as I suppose the shift east is creating more instability while the winds are still strong and we still have minus 12 to 14 uppers till about 3-4 hours before front arrives.
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if that's correct the bottom 2 thirds of the country are going to come to complete stand still.
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probably banging there head against the wall as every model different at only 12hours, wouldn't like to be in their shoes trying to draw up warnings, could be serious in some areas to west with drifting and people stranded in sub zero temps and strong wind chill, different models show same areas much lighter snow and if they throw out red/amber warnings and people don't travel then weather is ok they look silly and effects economy if schools/businesses close when not necessary nightmare situation for them
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wow had the radar zoomed in over estuary and Essex didn't see that streamer could be bit of disruption to South West of London if gritters aren't out as no warnings.
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I say we will get a better idea about tomorrows low, shortly as MET Office will have to update warnings pretty soon for at least Wales/Somerset/Gloucester. reckon it might be red warning as all models have them under heavy snow for at least 12 hours with driving winds, also all models now agree any precipitation on Thursday will all be snow just differences with our far north and east it gets.
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who knows what is going to happen tomorrow/Friday/Saturday. all 4 models out so far this afternoon (GFS, ICON, ARPEGE, GEM) have placement of low, angle of approach and even strength quite different by as early as midnight tonight. GEM wants to bury us tomorrow then has Friday as snow to freezing rain to rain. ARPEGE wants to give us nice amount tomorrow then warm up Friday. GFS and ICON have most of the snow over West country with only light showers for West of region tomorrow but staying cold to at least Saturday. Edit that the GEM then brings the cold back in before Friday night/Saturday when more snow arrives lets hope the GEM is correct. hopefully tonight's runs give more clear picture.
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This evening looking better than I thought, Estuary is creating its own light Thames streamer, and them big blobs are heading towards us hopefully if winds hold when they hit the mouth which is slightly warmer we should see the yellow and orange colours.
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I am pretty confident north Kent will get more snow around 4pm. Not as much as last 2 nights but still a top up look at the radar estuary is slowly starting to fire up as winds increase, winds will be from East at upper levels should be enough convection for light snow more so for north Essex/East anglian coast.
