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MET office uses a matrix system. They see this event as the highest impact, but not red warning yet as haven't moved to defenietly go to happen as models still slightly differ. I assume it meets the highest impact criteria as main roads may be impassible so people could get stuck in freezing conditions. I.e red warning area to do not travel. I expect once the run the UKV at midnight they will update the warnings and will be 2or3 small areas of red warnings within the current amber area. Probably south East Essex and north Kent narrow strip along east coast.

I expect Met will, redraw warning zone tomorrow morning after the 6z and move the tick box in there matrix up a row to more likely then after tomorrow 18z draw a smaller red zone within the amber zone.

Para starting to see the picture, not there yet. Now cold spell nailed on, next thing to look for on future runs is that wedge south of Iceland. Met office outlook suggests that will be further east and a tad stronger then easy to see where there cold but mainly dry outlook comes from. Scotland and north to be left very cold within high pressure and rest of country with slacker easterly end of next week.

Of course the breakdown is showing as the models have been showing phantom Greenland high for next week and still showing downgraded heights there 100hr+ Met office never mention heights next week to the north west i.e no Greenland heights. Met office mention height rises to north and it being dry apart from snow showers in east Expect over next few runs that higher pressure over Greenland to disappear and be replaced by wedges of heights between Iceland and Scotland just strong enough to send the approaching lows into France. The increased heights over UK limiting convection.

I know we don't see Mogreps. But all models we see are very slowly trending to what it must of been showing all along. Met office saying pressure rises directly north and snow showers into east with Atlantic not getting in next week with it becoming dry. Suggests low on Sunday still be further south than any model currently shows.

Don't think the 18z or any model we public see has this correct yet. Met office only mention showers for east side of UK, no mention of heavy snow from low. Suggests come Sunday that low will be much further south east well into France and we have snow showers/streamers. Also they bullish on heights rising to north start of next week and it becoming dry and cold. Are they just being vague in saying north or perhaps mogreps is showing Icelandic heights instead of the Greenland heights shown by the other models so far. Would expect a few ensembles to start hinting this on next couple of runs.

Do the met office see ECM before it rolls out to public? Or do we think their latest update is just from what mogreps show?

I hope it is not correct. But once models get into closer range they realise that very cold uppers going into relatively warm North sea off the norgewian coast will cause a weakness in block to our north. It's not the low blowing up that causes it to head north. It's the low heading north that causes it to blow up as it moves into the cold uppers over the warmer North sea. Don't think the 18z will happen thou as if low initially further south west at around 72hr it will have more interaction with low pressure over Iberia keeping it further south. Think tonights icon will be very close to actual conditions at t120. Cold Easterly with snow showers for the east but keeping frontal systems in France, so nothing extreme. Big differences on icon and GFS at 72hr.

Para is best run yet

It's going to better than GFS and Gem and longer lasting just taking a extra couple of days to get there. Going to be great it in FI. No way for the high to sink or escape west from 204hr onwards and that iceland low is gonna slide in to already very cold air

I think there is a chance all models could flip back to real cold at very short notice. Just not from the north the Greenland high/Atlantic ridge is not going to happen. Throughout this week the block to east has been middled further west on each run and still is even to extend that Saturday could be good for snow. A couple of the ensembles showing the low at 78hr not flattening the high over us as much with the low going off north east with the high amplifying behind to give us a north Easterly at day 5. We have seen a number of times in past potential Easterly implode at 96hrs. This could be a very rare occasion that we suddenly see In couple of days time models flip to showing Easterly at about 120hr seemingly out of know here.

I am actually liking the ECM 192-240charts for South East. The 144 charts let alone the further out charts never verify as planned Plenty of time for that low to be a lot further south and east. Seen it so many times now where it looks ideal for South East at 144 only for the lows to go progressively to far south. Hopefully this time we see the corrections south east again.

people panicking not seeing why this happening. Midterm pain for long term gain. quick response to what's happening in the strat. We had it before where we had cold conditions and strat warming caused pattern change and ruined it for us but this time I suspect it only be temporarily and even then we aren't going to get period of westerly weather. Strat at 10hpa starting to be put under pressure and condening towards Greenland. Models now progressively showing lower pressure to west of Greenland around day 7 I am starting to suspect over next couple of days we will see the outlook in mid term get worse. Remember met office suggesting high pressure for UK. Very plausible that by day 8-9 we end up with UK high. However then things will start improve again as the strat vortex becomes stretched and weaker, and then potentially splits. I would go with UK high by the 3rd then more sustained northerly week after transitioning to Easterly by end January.

Yeah ECM backs icon & ukmo. GEM is half way house with weak storm going north through the middle of Florida penisula. GEM is probably actually the worse outcome as only model showing any significant rain/gusts in central Florida other 3 are stronger systems but out at sea with no landfall. be very interesting to see what NHC do on next update as really should issue storm surge warnings for Bahamas and east of Florida but will they do that if the American model is showing different..suppose they will wait until after 18z GFS then issue warnings

Latest update has removed mention of the gulf/Florida just mentions 80% chance of it becoming a storm. Think NHC will issue storm warnings to Florida east coast after this afternoons ECM. GFS will probably come in to line by then. Looking at icon and ECM it never makes landfall but is a hurricane sitting of florida/Gorgia coasts for days so flooding would be mostly likely concern not the wind

Latest icon doesn't get the disturbance into the gulf, slowing it down and taking it up eastern side of Florida as strong storm/cat 1 hurricane. GFS thou stays same as earlier with weak depression into gulf that doesn't really develop. What's the bet the icon is the start of a trend to intensify it and have it turn north further east. Sound familiar...

Couple of American short range models show it coming well inland now. When the difference of a few miles could have major affects on warning do you think the MET office share with NOAA what MOGREPS and UKV are showing? As never see them mentioned in their updates. Would think when impact could be so big that everyone would share the most accurate info or at least Trump would pay the met office for it

18z GFS shifted a bit West and icon 18z is a lot further west than what NOAA are showing landfill mid Florida as cat4 and staling right on the coast, could be a lot of flooding as it weakens very slowly I would back icon and ukmet at this range than the American models

Wow is that really chafford. Left lakeside at 8 was coming down hard but nothing had settled. Came through laiandon hills and it was like the Alps was scary with a van going sideways in front. Got the other side to noak bridge and nothing is settling. It's mad how localising the difference between settling and not is.

Almost and look at date 25th. GP is going to bang on with the 26th his a bit good.

Nobody will be saying no snow forecast if 384 comes off, everyone will be buried and had enough for winter before the 1st of December

Next frame would be absolutely carnage as that Chanel low moves east the blizzards commence 2010 all over again

generally think they are far worse on a weekend. I get the impression they are like most big government departments and run on a Skelton staff with only junior members on the weekend. The junior staff are probably told to just read from the computer generated forecast. if they were looking at latest radar and pressure readings across France they would see there is a small low to east of Paris which has nudged slightly north over last couple of hours. This was not modelled as see 12z GFS. we don't have streamer as such but the precipitation on northern edge is being slightly intensified a hits north sea/Estuary. I haven't a clue whether that low will continue to move north/north west/north east or dissipate. Even if the Met office were/are looking at the radar I doubt they would hazard a forecast as its a dynamic situation and they probably haven't a clue, they would probably wait until the 18z models come out then adjust forecast.

looks like there is small low centred over Reims maybe pushing slightly north, was not on any model, so what is does is any ones guess there is a lot of precipitation there moving into Champagne region it couldn't make it could it? https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/radar.php

18z Hirlam looks really good from 6am tomorrow for 24 hours, spreads it around the region aswell