Bishop Brennan
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Posts posted by Bishop Brennan
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And we are also 99.999999999% uncertain as to how the strat warming(s) will influence the weather patterns in our little part of the world, and we will remain uncertain for several more days or even weeks. Always worth pointing this out before folk hang all their winter hopes & dreams on this event, as tantalising as it looks.
Bish
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Current 10 hPa max temp 8.6ºC
For future reference this verifies very well with December FI forecasts - the vortex positioning is more difficult to check the verification for - but an excellent temperature forecast from the GFS into FI.
Apologies if this is a dumb question Chio, but how are the Strat temperatures measured? Weather balloons?
Bish
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I'm no expert, but from from what I have come to learn over the past few years, the lag time between a SSW and any possible effects here in the UK sits somewhere between 2-4 weeks ?
So assuming that's right, I'd say somewhere around the end of January or the beginning of Feb ??
I think I'm right in saying that the date of the forecasted SSW has actually moved forward somewhat, from Jan 10th to Jan 5th or thereabouts.
Bish
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I swear I can see sparks flying in there!
Hi Andrej, for the uninitiated (i.e. myself!), what do the final two graphs show? A split vortex from around Jan 10th?
Bish
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Intense rain over the Midlands this morning, rates on Wunderground sites 4 - 6mm hour around Coventry, heading off that way shortly! Dad said river levels rising rapidly with field run off and some roads closed already such as the main road between Coventry and Rugby, so I need to find a diversion. Loads more to come this afternoon lookking at the radar an inch will fall quite widely.
Yep, it's been coming down increasingly heavily for the past couple of hours. 10.00mm for the day so far, but most of that has fallen since nine this morning.
Drive carefully, Tony.
Bish
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Rain pepped back up, and radar now showing several hours still to come. It all looked so hopeful earlier.
Yep, it's really intensified to our south & west and is now moving across us. Yet another stormy tonight beckons by the looks of things.
Bish
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We got down to a very respectable -7.6C by half past five this morning. It was still below minus six when I first tried (unsuccessfully!) to get into my car a couple of hours later.
Can I ask everyone what exactly constitutes an ice day? Is it an entire day whereby the temperature doesn't exceed 0.0C or does it only apply to daylight hours? Elsewhere on the forum some people are celebrating an ice day even though there are still several hours to go?
Bish
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-6.1C at half past midnight. Coldest it's been here since we dropped to -8.4C on the morning of February 11th this year.
Bish
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I had more snow in 90's than 2000's, 1997-2006 not bad here
Really? Wow I'm surprised. For the period 1997-2006 I might as well have been living in the Nevada Desert from a snow perspective.
I can only remember two snow events during that period, both of which were notable for their timing rather than depths:
Late December 2000, when between Christmas and New Year we had a modest but very seasonal fall.
And we had a very unexpected April snowfall early in the decade, but I can't be sure which year - 2001 perhaps.
Bish
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But it's only December 12th! We just need to be patient.
I must admit the outlook for the next week or so is not too great from a snow perspective, but that will change eventually. Remember: many of the epic snow events of the past didn't get underway until well after the start of January.......
Bish
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Just picking up on the previous conversation - in my opinion "proper" cold and snow are far more commonplace now than during the dismal 1997-2006 period, when I can only really recall one or two reasonably noteworthy snowfalls.
A very chilly -4.1C here in Knowle, with lots of dense freezing fog. Looks like I chose a good couple of days to use up some annual leave.
Bish
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Well the fog never really cleared here today, once it had rolled in after nine this morning. If anything it got heavier as the day progressed.
The temperature did fleetingly manage to reach the giddy heights of 2.5C around mid-afternoon, but it has fallen back below zero again now - currently -0.3C
Bish
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driving up to birmingham on the country roads yesterday morning was a dreadful mistake. on the junction near hagley golf course was an awful black ice patch which obviously went unnoticed by me. i tried to brake leading up to the junction but obviously couldnt stop. put the handbrake on in panic and went straight out into the junction. thank god nothing was coming as i wouldve crashed or worse still lost my life. take extra care on those ungritted roads.
Good grief that sounds terrifying. Thank goodness you're okay!
Bish
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Some sites showing light snow for Thursday morning for our region , what do you think guys ?
I'll believe it when I see it falling from the sky! If it does indeed snow, I can only assume it'll be very light and brief. Still, something is better than nothing I guess.
Bish
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Hi there folks......
Amazing the difference in the 3 miles betwen Knowle and here.
Here in central Solihull its cold -2.5C. Currently low cloud/fog, but its changed 3 times in the last 1.5 hrs altermating between brillant blue skies and dense freezing fog.
Everyone be very careful travelling on the motorways today and tomorrow morning. These are very dangerous conditions
Also the minimum dropped to -2.9C at 07:30 this morning.
MIA
lol when I wrote my first post there were brilliant blue skies outside. Since then a very heavy fog has descended, in fact I can't even see the tree tops anymore.
Currently -2.4C, with a minimum of -3.0C at 7:33 am
Bish
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No fog here at the moment, although a very sharp frost. Sounds like there could be a wider risk of disruptive fog tomorrow morning for the West Midlands however.
Has anybody seen the news re the latest ECM 32 day forecast? A very big turnaround from previous updates - it now seems that the rest of December may well be dull, wet, and windy. Northern blocking is still extensive, but has shifted slightly further north than was previously anticpated, leaving us in the Atlantic firing line for the time being
Bish
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Models look in all in all fairly boring, very typical and very dissapointing in comparison to this time last week. This time last week half of the east coast would be looking at inches and not cm's by now. Instead, it's chilly but not cold, and fairly dry everywhere. Rain looks like becoming a problem by the weekend as we head towards christmas with very little sign of anything festive in store, unless you live in the Scottish mountains of course.
The turnaround has been pretty horrible to watch unfold, hasn't it? A real kick in the wotsits.
What frustrates me is that we're actually going to end up with pretty much the total opposite of what the models were hinting at, i.e. strong Atlantic LP's rather than a significant easterly influence. I wouldn't even mind so much if we were at least looking at a snowy breakdown, which of course now seems unlikely as well.
Bish
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The week ahead forecast on the BBC Midlands News this morning showed heavy rain for Friday - a sad case of what might have been
Bish
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Have to say the charts look alot more encouraging than yesterday and it looks like the cold isnt going to let the LP smash through it and it may be a snowy end of the week for us!
True, but extreme caution is advised! The fiasco of the past few days has served as a sobering reminder that we mustn't get too drawn into what the models are showing until a reliable timeframe is reached, and once cross-model agreement is achieved.
But a tentative step in the right direction nonetheless.
Bish
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RIP Sir Patrick - thanks for the memories.
Bish
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You might think that is bad but my football team have now lost 7 games on bounce.
Sheffield Wednesday I presume?
Bish
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That's why it's called FI...
Other names spring to mind, but I doubt I'd get them past the forum profanity filter.
Bish
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It's all on again in FI lol
Aaaarrgghhhhh!!!! But it's always only ever in FI!!!!!
Bish
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In my opinion, part of the problem is that the Technical Model Discussion thread is rather under-utilised. From what I can tell there have only been three new posts there since the start of December, and none since Dec 4th. Hardly a hive of activity.
I feel the technical thread should be invite-only (if that is possible) and should be where the likes of GP, Chio, Lorenzo, John Holmes etc should be encouraged to post their latest thoughts regarding the model outputs.
Bish
Seasons in the Welsh Valleys and Brecon Beacons
in Archived non-weather Photography
Posted
Great pictures, thanks for sharing!
Bish