Man With Beard

I had a look at the ECM clusters on the old icelandic site - I think they highlight some stuff more clearly than the ECM's own version - and in this case, they highlight the rather unsummery pattern we are in, especially further north:

A look at the clusters D11-D15 They aren't quite as terrible as you might think, though odds still favour the unsettled prognosis. Cluster 2 gives the hint of a trough settling to our west, allowing better conditions to come to us from the south. At 16 members, this contains around 30% of the ensembles. That's not negligible; we've seen options with this amount of backing verify before. Clusters 1 and 3, though, look broadly similar for us, with troughs nearby and the flow backing west, or north of west, after they exit. With 70% of ensembles in these clusters, they're clearly the more likely.

We're now running out of time for a westward correction that would save us from a fully trough dominated week 2 of July - the odds were always against and now those odds are building. Early days but chances of a cooler July than June must be on the table - if the anomalies are right then not only will it stay cool until mid month aside a couple of days this coming weekend, but it may also take a while to change to a more favourable pattern for a warmer source, so potentially even beyond mid month.

So close to the super-plume on the ECM. Can't be discounted.

Slightly more of a coming together in the D5-D8 period from a wider perspective, but it leaves the UK on the boundary between hot air and less settled conditions, so it's going to be hard to pin down specifics until nearer the time. A trough to the west formed via a trough that came from the east will not resolve easily!

No I don't see any sign of a 2012 repeat, where northern blocking sent low after low directly through us. However, no obvious sign of exceptional weather at the other end of the spectrum, either. Certainly a warmer interlude next weekend for southern/eastern parts, but I'd be nervous about calling anything beyond D5 until the pattern settles after the amount of movement east and west of different systems to our north. The ensembles suggest a halfway house between unsettled and summery into week 2 (although I'd be a bit more concerned further north/west), but not such cool source - I'd expect at least average temperatures for the week commencing 9 July judging by the way the ECM ensembles are going - and they've been a pretty good guide all the way to D15 in recent weeks.

I would have been interested in a D11 chart there, a massive amount of heat to the south! A big shift from previous solutions, but as I mentioned yesterday, the uncertainty over the interactions of the passing troughs over Scandinavia in the next few days mean, to me, that quite a variety of solutions remain in play. The ECM changed course last week and eventually was proved right, so why not this time too.

I'm a bit nervous about calling the D5-D10 period, though, because of those two troughs traveling in opposite directions to our north. This just spells forecasting trouble to me. The interaction between the two troughs could be very different depending on slight adjustments on how they approach each other, and that's bound to have a profound knock-on for our weather in the days after.

Regardless of the GFS, there are tentative shoots of an improvement around next weekend or slightly after as the trough *might* pull west again. There are signs of this potentially happening on the ECM op this morning, and there were plenty of signs on the ECM clusters last night (see below). That said, no really decent signs yet of another extended summery spell.

Yes, noted! I feel the modelling for the D15+ range still has some way to go, except perhaps when locked into a wintry zonal pattern. On the positive side, that means every chance of getting out of this pattern by mid July

Watching a little sadly as the first proper front for 6 weeks approaches ... May/June 2023, it's been a pleasure

Thanks, didn't know that! So a very good chance of 17C being breached!

Still quite a lot of daylight between GFS/UKMO on the one side and ECM on the other by T168. In such situations, the two more similar models often win over the other. My slight wager is the ECM will revert to a more unsettled pattern tonight, but who knows.

1976 now looks very vulnerable so long as there are no huge end-of-month corrections. Warmest June for 200 years? The Daily Express will go nuts!

I note as well that the control run was with the op this morning (and eventually produced a UK high for week 2 of July) - so the chances of the south and east escaping a complete summer switch off are increasing a bit - still some rain but no drastic cool-off if the ECM op and control are correct. No escape for Scotland and the North-West, though.

Oops, thanks for spotting! I did think it was a bit extreme! Looks like @bluearmy has corrected the record However, a non- summery theme continues past D5 on GFS this morning, with a nasty storm deep in FI, this would be very deep for July (and thankfully D12 so unlikely to verify this way)

This will be hard to get used to

Wow. I am surprised. We have been sunny pretty much all the time this week except Tuesday first thing. Amazing what a difference 50 miles can make.

Was anyone else expecting this week to have been so good? Last week when I saw the charts, I was sure it was going to be a real mess. But no. Here on the south coast, wall to wall sunshine has continued apart from in Sunday (which wasn't a write-off), and I note somewhere has reached at least 26C for 14 consecutive days now. That would be excellent in July, but I've never seen the like in June. I'm in my 40s so just missed out on 1976, but surely the best June of my lifetime, by miles and miles. We've only had two days that weren't predominantly sunny and warm, and those two days weren't that bad!

The ECM mean continues to be less progressive than the op in pulling the line of the jet so far south. I think the end of next week is still in the balance for southern areas, although unlikely to remain hot. Northern areas, though, look odds on to become a little unsettled at times after this Saturday. Next weekend onwards doesn't look pretty for anyone.

GFS 18Z showing an alternative route for next week with the trough splitting and heading south before arrival to the UK, keeping the heat going for eastern parts. It may not be such a simple route to unsettled conditions, after all?

Some much cooler days right at the end of the month - could this keep 2023 just below 1976?

We're not used to seeing clusters like this during July - pretty strong signal for a fairly deep low to bring NWlies down the country at some point in the D10-D15 period. What effect will the high SSTs have on the temperatures?

We'll find out the impacts on temperatures next week I guess - very westerly week coming up!

Chances of 15C uppers next weekend increased for SE in comparison with 00Z, slight increase further north too.