Man With Beard

Warm or hot forecast starting to firm up for next weekend away from the far north (UKMO is even better imo). 30C looking quite likely again.

Latest ECM ensembles give 20% chance of 15C uppers clipping the south coast next Sunday - so can't say the ensembles are fully on board with the quantity of heat shown on GFS/ECM this morning - but neither are they outright outliers, I think?

ECM and GFS showing there is a heatwave within the envelope for next weekend, although I suspect they are very much on the positive side of that envelope, as I'd seen very few ensembles pushing the 16C uppers line to the UK over the past couple of days. Is it just me, though, or are uppers constantly getting upgraded?

A hot theme is firming up for next weekend - 30C on the 12Z both next Sunday and Monday - though I guess still just enough time for the models to flatten the pattern and push the heat further south. UKMO not particularly different.

WTR the chance of beating 1976 - it will be the sheer consistency of temperatures that causes this month to be warmer if it eventually is - we've been above 25C for maxes on 10 consecutive days now, but not inconceivable every other day this month will see maximums of that value or more. I think we can forget how unusual that is even in summer.

I was actually quite pleasantly surprised with temperatures - next Friday to Sunday look quite hot for England with high 20s likely for some, and as the temperature charts don't look that different to ones we saw during the past week, a fair chance 30C will be reached somewhere too if the charts verify. Obviously not as hot during the coming week in general but still above average, low or occasionally mid 20s. But I accept it's flatter than the forecasts of a few days ago. It does seem the way with D10 modelled pulses of heights from the SW when they are up against the jet - they often seem to get watered down a touch, and northern areas in particular go from a settled to a less settled scenario.

LolThis is where just looking at the anomalies leads into error - the NOAA tonight: You might instinctively look at the red lines, consider it to represent high pressure and think we'll be under a block. But the lines to look at are the green ones - the ones representing the actual 500mb flow. This show everything is coming from the west, and the narrowness of the lines to the west of the UK suggests the flow won't be that slack. So it's absolutely not a blocked pattern. Slightly raised heights to the SE means slightly more settled towards that part of the country, but wall to wall sunshine unlikely to last more than a day or two during this period.

It's done this a lot in the past 3 days. Repetition by the GFS in FI is often a good sign that something similar is likely to materialise.

Despite some disappointment for the sun lovers that next week looks a touch less settled than hoped for 48 hours ago, there's still no sign of the generally warm flow being flushed out. I can see 25C potentially being reached somewhere on every day until the month end - many Junes in the past struggled to record this on more than 2 or 3 days during the whole month. So, a very warm outlook, albeit not a dry one until perhaps later next week.

So potentially the warmest June for 180 years, and warmer than June 1976? That's either remarkable or just another sign that we are living with new norms, particularly during summer time.

Well this didn't age well! Even the ECM this evening has the risk of rain throughout next week now. But still some hot sunshine in between. Warm and sometimes wet, I think sums up the models tonight.

The UKMO has joined the GFS in finding a little extra in the Atlantic low, so the ECM 00Z looks a little on its own now. Confidence has to be growing now for a pause to the settled conditions possibly as early as Saturday in the far west, probably extending to all by Monday but I wouldn't want to say it will reach the east for sure until a couple more runs have passed. How long this "pause" is ... well, the GFS keeps pushing plumes for the end of next week, so, perhaps not very long.

That's quite a picture for July, and it keeps coming up again and again. Suggests "heatwave" is going to become a well used term over the next 7 weeks! An excellent test for these long range models, then, as we're getting such a good look at them - if it is a predominantly dry July, they will have been worth their salt.

Anyone looking for a proper cool down before the end of the month is advised not look at the ECM ensembles D11-D15 - this is the mean chart for T300

The thing is, there's very little forcing on that low from the jet. So, if the intensity of the low has been overdone, then it may not make it through the country at all and the east stays warm/hot throughout to T240. True, it could develop more but I can't see where that's going to come from - a new chasing low is more likely to peg our low back than fling it forward. Could go either way but I'm 60/40 in favour of the low losing even more intensity as T0 approaches, because Atlantic lows are so often overdone at T120 especially by the GFS.

I bet you a fiver the GFS makes an about turn in the next 24 hours and does something totally different with next week's low.

And on 13th June of all days

The claim regarding Portmadog looks legitimate to me - the weatherobs site (thanks Maz!) looks as if it is reporting the official site and it's showing 30.1C.

How can you tell which ones are the official sites on weatherobs - are they the named ones?

I'm in pole position for a top temp here and I'm slightly down on the same point as last Friday which fell just short of 30C ... will June 13th survive?

Yes, still plenty of places that have remained dry or virtually dry, and not much hope for significant rainfall in the coming 10 days except perhaps one front. But what a contrast with places affected by recent thunderstorms.

Yes I think I'm at peace after tonight's ensembles that we're headed for a hiccup in the pattern by Sunday/Monday - can't really call it a breakdown as we may go immediately back to hot weather a day or two after. I also noticed the tendency to flatten things a bit in FI but still with raised pressure to the E. All these added together, I'd expect above average temperatures to persist throughout the next two weeks.

UKMO at D7: Atlantic trough looks like stalling to the SW or sliding underneath to me, warm SElies continue. I've yet to see anything convincing with regards to a breakdown in the reliable timeframe.

Rain band cleared in Fareham. Sun back out. It's going to be an awesome evening!!

Is the whole lot going to join into one nation-long band of thunder?